{ "title": "AVR rating comparison: aggregate evidence", "version": "clean24-v12-20261012", "principal_arm": "weekly", "sensitivity_arms": [ "daily", "calendar" ], "scope": "Retrospective development reconstruction, FBS versus FBS, 2016 through September 20 2026; not prospective validation. Raw ordering and genuine publisher margin consumers are separate endpoints. Negative deltas favor AVR. Exact historical PFF publication and individual publisher game-row issue times remain limited. Massey MAS is not Power; Sagarin Rating is not Predictor.", "criteria": { "maximum_edition_age_days": 10, "paired_replicates": 20000, "hierarchical_replicates": 20000, "paired_seed": 20261011, "hierarchical_seed": 20261012, "ordinary_individual_interval": "two-sided95 percent", "four_family_upper_quantile": 0.9875, "ordering_noninferiority_tolerance": 0.01, "bias_convention": "predicted home-minus-away margin minus actual home-minus-away margin" }, "reviews": { "numeric_arithmetic_and_uncertainty": "passed six independent file-only reviews", "source_chronology_values_products_revisions": "passed six independent file-only reviews", "numeric_receipt_sha256": "cca4031972c49eed0739fa3b68386c20790fdd4bfabd2220436cf812098b9dcc", "source_receipt_sha256": "5bbc4814cccfe6e5db4cd0e650ad27bb538c0758c44dca1b562efaa247e72019", "final_source_binding_sha256": "95ab7b7f24b70b55e9e8e6ffa7cb76b739855acccecd48fa10224b0332cde9d0" }, "arms": { "weekly": { "primary": { "phase": 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2016, "games": 678, "avr_errors": 187.0, "comparator_errors": 182.0, "delta": 0.007374631268436578 }, { "season": 2017, "games": 692, "avr_errors": 185.0, "comparator_errors": 188.0, "delta": -0.004335260115606936 }, { "season": 2018, "games": 688, "avr_errors": 169.0, "comparator_errors": 179.0, "delta": -0.014534883720930232 }, { "season": 2019, "games": 689, "avr_errors": 173.0, "comparator_errors": 166.0, "delta": 0.010159651669085631 }, { "season": 2020, "games": 513, "avr_errors": 144.0, "comparator_errors": 135.0, "delta": 0.017543859649122806 }, { "season": 2021, "games": 682, "avr_errors": 191.0, "comparator_errors": 201.0, "delta": -0.01466275659824047 }, { "season": 2022, "games": 681, "avr_errors": 210.0, "comparator_errors": 212.0, "delta": -0.002936857562408223 }, { "season": 2023, "games": 698, "avr_errors": 188.0, "comparator_errors": 181.0, "delta": 0.01002865329512894 }, { "season": 2024, "games": 759, "avr_errors": 226.0, "comparator_errors": 231.0, "delta": 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