CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 4:15 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UNA 0.4%99.6% ARK
Projected margin
ARK by 42.3
Projected total
62
80% outcome range
ARK 22 to ARK 63
Win probability
ARK 99.6%
FinalUNA 14 · ARK 31model had +42.3, off by 25.3

Current team profiles

North Alabama
Arkansas

When North Alabama has the ball

Passing

No comparison
UNA offense
—
ARK defense
#84
EPA comparison
—
0.19
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
UNA offense
—
ARK defense
#125
EPA comparison
—
0.20
#125
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
UNA offense
#79
ARK defense
#100
Success rates
43%
#79
43%
#100
Success rate
More metrics
0.07
#83
0.17
#111
EPA / play
0.18
#106
1.16
#38
Explosiveness
—
13%
#111
Havoc

When Arkansas has the ball

Passing

No comparison
UNA defense
—
ARK offense
#88
EPA comparison
—
0.14
#88
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
UNA defense
—
ARK offense
#134
EPA comparison
—
-0.11
#134
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
UNA defense
#4
ARK offense
#96
Success rates
37%
#4
41%
#96
Success rate
More metrics
-0.01
#7
0.01
#120
EPA / play
0.20
#57
1.08
#129
Explosiveness
—
19%
#126
Havoc

Current key players

North Alabama
DLKamore Harris
22 tkl · 6.5 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.6
Pressures
16
Pass-rush snaps
109
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
90.14/1549
DLCayden Adkins
26 tkl · 6.5 TFL · 4.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.0
Pressures
15
Pass-rush snaps
70
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
2
84.813/1549
WRXavier Johnson
32 rec · 606 yds · 2 TD
83.511/1229
WRTJ Holmes
2 rec · 88 yds · 1 TD
81.119/1229
DLJyheam Ingram
19 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.1
Pressures
10
Pass-rush snaps
125
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
79.048/1549
LBFred Vili
16 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.5
Coverage
57.9
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
20
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.947/1054
Arkansas
QBKJ Jackson
1038 yds · 6 TD · 4 INT
64.0225/729
WRChris Marshall
35 rec · 517 yds · 2 TD
81.246/2069
LBBen Bogle
36 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.7
Coverage
58.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
78.799/1796
DBShelton Lewis
13 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
81.3
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
45
Passer rating allowed
64.6
Missed tackles
1
78.584/2969
DBKhmori House
33 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
84.7
Coverage
68.2
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
107
Passer rating allowed
94.5
Missed tackles
1
73.2266/2969
WRJelani Watkins
27 rush yds · 0 TD · 3 car
73.0164/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Maddox Lassiter · TEout · 2026-08-16

    Lassiter has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an upper body injury.

  • H. Hendrix · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hendrix is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Commodores on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UNA
ARK
vs
Offense
74.4
#54 of 125
QB
64.0
#122 of 138
61.8
#120 of 126
RB
67.0
#135 of 138
76.8
#5 of 126
WR
72.9
#50 of 138
55.8
#117 of 124
TE
61.8
#107 of 138
59.9
#111 of 125
OL
64.3
#102 of 138
Defense
82.1
#2 of 126
DL
72.4
#79 of 138
75.7
#24 of 126
LB
70.2
#103 of 138
68.5
#100 of 126
DB
70.2
#94 of 138
Common opponents