Season Projections
Every remaining game simulated to a finish, through the conference championships and the 12-team playoff.
Updated: Week 7 - 10.11.26 21:57 EDT
The title race
National championship odds
Most likely playoff field
The 12 teams making it most often
If the season ended today
as of 2026-10-05 · 390 games played
The 12-team playoff
Advancement odds (20,000 bracket sims)
| Seed | Team | QF | Semis | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ohio StateAQ | 100% | 63% | 37% | 21% |
| 2 |  AlabamaAQ | 100% | 63% | 36% | 19% |
| 3 |  Notre Dame | 100% | 58% | 29% | 15% |
| 4 |  Georgia | 100% | 57% | 27% | 13% |
| 5 |  Indiana | 86% | 41% | 18% | 8.9% |
| 6 |  MiamiAQ | 65% | 29% | 13% | 5.9% |
| 7 |  Texas TechAQ | 67% | 26% | 13% | 5.5% |
| 8 |  Oregon | 62% | 24% | 12% | 5.6% |
| 9 |  Texas | 38% | 13% | 5.6% | 2.4% |
| 10 |  USC | 34% | 11% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| 11 |  Utah | 35% | 13% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| 12 |  James MadisonAQ | 14% | 2.6% | 0.5% | <0.2% |
Conference championships
each league's top two by conference record · predicted score
Playoff odds
| # | Team | Proj W | Conf title | Playoff | Bye | Semis | Title | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9.8 | 43% | 96% | 68% | 57% | 20% | ||
| 2 | 10.8 | 40% | 96% | 65% | 53% | 16% | ||
| 3 | 11.1 | — | 95% | 57% | 47% | 12% | ||
| 4 | 10.5 | 31% | 90% | 46% | 41% | 11% | ||
| 5 | 10.3 | 24% | 85% | 35% | 34% | 8.0% | ||
| 6 | 11.2 | 65% | 87% | 33% | 31% | 6.8% | ||
| 7 | 11.6 | 54% | 87% | 35% | 32% | 6.7% | ||
| 8 | 9.1 | 21% | 73% | 21% | 25% | 5.9% | ||
| 9 | 9.7 | 14% | 61% | 14% | 17% | 3.7% | ||
| 10 | 10.6 | 29% | 61% | 11% | 15% | 2.6% | ||
| 11 | 8.5 | 4.5% | 36% | 4.3% | 8.9% | 1.7% | ||
| 12 | 8.4 | 3.4% | 30% | 2.9% | 6.5% | 1.2% | ||
| 13 | 8.1 | 3.4% | 25% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 0.9% | ||
| 14 | 8.1 | 0.4% | 19% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 0.9% | ||
| 15 | 6.8 | 0.7% | 15% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 0.6% | ||
| 16 | 7.8 | 1.8% | 12% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | ||
| 17 | 8.3 | 3.1% | 12% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 0.3% | ||
| 18 | 6.3 | 0.9% | 7.2% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | ||
| 19 | 7.5 | 1.8% | 10% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 0.3% | ||
| 20 | 9.1 | 14% | 21% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 0.2% | ||
| 21 | 7.4 | 2.4% | 8.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% | <0.2% | ||
| 22 | 8.4 | 1.5% | 8.1% | <0.2% | 1.1% | <0.2% | ||
| 23 | 9.1 | 11% | 16% | 0.3% | 1.5% | <0.2% | ||
| 24 | 7.8 | 0.8% | 5.1% | <0.2% | 0.7% | <0.2% | ||
| 25 | 11.6 | 68% | 44% | <0.2% | 1.5% | <0.2% | ||
| 26 | 9.0 | 6.5% | 9.1% | <0.2% | 0.6% | <0.2% | ||
| 27 | 7.9 | 2.1% | 3.8% | <0.2% | 0.5% | <0.2% | ||
| 28 | 6.2 | <0.2% | 1.8% | <0.2% | 0.3% | <0.2% | ||
| 29 | 9.1 | 54% | 14% | — | 0.5% | <0.2% | ||
| 30 | 8.5 | 3.5% | 4.7% | <0.2% | 0.3% | <0.2% | ||
| 31 | 8.5 | 1.6% | 2.7% | <0.2% | 0.3% | <0.2% | ||
| 32 | 7.2 | 1.0% | 3.1% | <0.2% | 0.3% | <0.2% | ||
| 33 | 9.2 | 5.1% | 5.8% | <0.2% | 0.3% | <0.2% | ||
| 34 | 8.2 | 1.2% | 1.6% | <0.2% | <0.2% | <0.2% | ||
| 35 | 7.3 | 0.3% | 1.1% | <0.2% | <0.2% | <0.2% | ||
| 36 | 6.3 | <0.2% | 0.9% | <0.2% | <0.2% | <0.2% | ||
| 37 | 9.9 | 46% | 13% | — | 0.3% | <0.2% | ||
| 38 | 7.6 | 0.4% | 0.6% | — | <0.2% | <0.2% | ||
| 39 | 6.2 | <0.2% | 0.7% | — | <0.2% | <0.2% | ||
| 40 | 6.1 | <0.2% | 0.7% | <0.2% | <0.2% | <0.2% |
Conference races
Title odds within each league
