Season Projections
Every remaining game simulated to a finish, through the conference championships and the 12-team playoff.
- Season
- 2026
- Simulations
- 20,000
- Teams
- 138
The title race
National championship odds
Most likely playoff field
The 12 teams making it most often
If the season ended today
as of 2026-08-29 · 0 games played
The 12-team playoff
First round · on campus
Advancement odds (20,000 bracket sims)
| Seed | Team | QF | Semis | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ohio StateAQ | 100% | 75% | 51% | 31% |
| 2 |  Oregon | 100% | 69% | 41% | 22% |
| 3 |  GeorgiaAQ | 100% | 66% | 34% | 17% |
| 4 |  Notre Dame | 100% | 59% | 23% | 11% |
| 5 |  Texas A&M | 94% | 41% | 15% | 6.0% |
| 6 |  Texas | 62% | 23% | 9.1% | 3.4% |
| 7 |  Texas TechAQ | 61% | 19% | 8.0% | 3.0% |
| 8 |  USC | 60% | 15% | 6.7% | 2.5% |
| 9 |  Indiana | 40% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| 10 |  Alabama | 39% | 11% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| 11 |  MiamiAQ | 38% | 12% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| 12 |  UTSAAQ | 5.8% | 0.5% | <0.1% | — |
Conference championships
each league's top two by conference record · predicted score
Playoff odds
| # | Team | Proj W | Conf title | Playoff | Bye | Semis | Title | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10.7 | 46% | 99% | 88% | 71% | 29% | ||
| 2 | 10.7 | 32% | 98% | 77% | 62% | 20% | ||
| 3 | 10.7 | 42% | 95% | 68% | 56% | 16% | ||
| 4 | 10.9 | — | 92% | 51% | 43% | 9.1% | ||
| 5 | 9.4 | 16% | 69% | 21% | 25% | 4.5% | ||
| 6 | 11.5 | 53% | 81% | 25% | 25% | 4.0% | ||
| 7 | 8.4 | 12% | 54% | 13% | 17% | 3.1% | ||
| 8 | 8.9 | 6.7% | 54% | 11% | 16% | 2.7% | ||
| 9 | 9.0 | 5.5% | 46% | 8.0% | 13% | 2.0% | ||
| 10 | 10.2 | 44% | 61% | 10% | 13% | 2.0% | ||
| 11 | 8.6 | 8.4% | 39% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 1.6% | ||
| 12 | 8.3 | 3.4% | 31% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 1.2% | ||
| 13 | 8.1 | 5.3% | 27% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 1.0% | ||
| 14 | 8.7 | 3.0% | 27% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 0.9% | ||
| 15 | 9.8 | 21% | 37% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 0.8% | ||
| 16 | 8.2 | 5.2% | 24% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 0.8% | ||
| 17 | 7.6 | 4.8% | 24% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 0.8% | ||
| 18 | 9.7 | 27% | 35% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 0.4% | ||
| 19 | 8.8 | 13% | 20% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 0.3% | ||
| 20 | 7.3 | 1.6% | 5.7% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | ||
| 21 | 8.6 | 1.4% | 9.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | ||
| 22 | 7.9 | 1.1% | 6.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | ||
| 23 | 6.8 | 1.1% | 4.0% | 0.2% | 0.7% | <0.1% | ||
| 24 | 8.0 | 7.0% | 8.9% | 0.1% | 0.7% | <0.1% | ||
| 25 | 7.3 | 1.6% | 5.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | <0.1% | ||
| 26 | 6.6 | 1.1% | 3.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | <0.1% | ||
| 27 | 7.4 | 4.3% | 5.7% | 0.1% | 0.5% | <0.1% | ||
| 28 | 8.0 | 4.8% | 6.5% | <0.1% | 0.5% | <0.1% | ||
| 29 | 6.4 | 0.9% | 2.4% | <0.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | ||
| 30 | 7.7 | 2.9% | 3.2% | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | ||
| 31 | 7.6 | 1.4% | 1.5% | — | <0.1% | <0.1% | ||
| 32 | 7.5 | 2.7% | 2.8% | — | <0.1% | <0.1% | ||
| 33 | 7.4 | 5.3% | 5.7% | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | ||
| 34 | 9.2 | 35% | 16% | — | <0.1% | — | ||
| 35 | 8.6 | 30% | 15% | — | <0.1% | — | ||
| 36 | 8.6 | 31% | 10% | — | <0.1% | — | ||
| 37 | 8.3 | 19% | 2.7% | — | <0.1% | — | ||
| 38 | 8.3 | 11% | 3.2% | — | <0.1% | — | ||
| 39 | 8.2 | 24% | 3.3% | — | — | — | ||
| 40 | 8.1 | 16% | 5.2% | — | <0.1% | — |
Conference races
Title odds within each league
