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SEC

Ole Miss

Rebels4-15th in SEC
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Oxford, MS · 64,038
TeamCarried by the offense · underachieving the roster
OffenseMethodical passing attack · strongweak point: explosiveness, 115th
DefenseBend-don't-break · weakweak point: getting off the field, 114th

The season

Best win
W 32-24 vs #11 LSU
Wk 3 · Sep 19 · won as a 33% underdog
Worst loss
L 28-52 @ #22 Florida
Wk 4 · Sep 26 · model had 41%

Schedule

model 4/5 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 6
    vsLouisvilleNeutral
    W 41–38
    Win chance 75%Model margin +9.1Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsCharlotte
    W 41–9
    Win chance >99%Model margin +41.0Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsLSU
    W 32–24
    Win chance 33%Model margin -5.9Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    atFlorida
    L 28–52
    Win chance 41%Model margin -3.2Game details
  5. Week 6 · Oct 10
    atVanderbilt
    W 52–17
    Win chance 58%Model margin +2.8Game details
  6. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsMissouri
    Win chance 57%Model margin +2.5Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atTexas
    Win chance 28%Model margin -8.0Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsAuburn
    Win chance 68%Model margin +6.4Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsGeorgia
    Win chance 31%Model margin -6.9Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atOklahoma
    Win chance 42%Model margin -2.9Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsWofford
    Win chance >99%Model margin +52.0Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 27
    vsMississippi State
    Win chance 71%Model margin +7.6Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
65
#38 of 138
Defense efficiency
31
#103 of 138
Efficiency
#260.27
EPA / play
#1050.15
#150.45
Pass
#980.25
#420.17
Rush
#1020.13
#453%
Success
#11445%
Big plays & havoc
#1151.13
Explosive
#421.17
#3713%
Havoc
#6516%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB40th
RB114th
WR25th
TE26th
OL100th
DL71st
LB94th
DB99th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Trinidad ChamblissSR
1222 yds · 8 TD · 3 INT
85.0
44th QB
RB
Kewan LacyJR
191 yds · 4 TD · 4.9 YPC
76.0
150th RB
WR
Deuce AlexanderJR
27 rec · 429 yds · 4 TD
78.5
67th WR
WR
Dillon AlfredFR
1 rec · 34 yds · 0 TD
77.1
85th WR
TE
Caleb OdomJR
13 rec · 201 yds · 1 TD
79.4
27th TE
Defense
LB
Suntarine PerkinsSR
17 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
73.1
256th LB
LB
Keaton ThomasSR
27 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
70.7
341st LB
CB
Dorian BarneyFR
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
73.5
256th DB
S
Nick CullSR
4 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
71.4
356th DB
CB
Jaylon BraxtonJR
16 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
71.4
357th DB

Injury report

1 listed
Ques.
Izaiah HartrupWR

Hartrup is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tigers on Saturday, October 17th.

59.5202510-11

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsMissouri
    Playoff chance if win
    14.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    4.8%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atTexas
    Playoff chance if win
    19.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    6.0%
  3. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsAuburn
    Playoff chance if win
    13.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    3.9%
  4. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsGeorgia
    Playoff chance if win
    18.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    5.9%
  5. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atOklahoma
    Playoff chance if win
    16.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    5.4%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 27
    vsMississippi State
    Playoff chance if win
    13.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    3.7%

Past seasons

Year by year
+5.9 points since 2022
5063758810067.7202272.7202381.2202473.62025
2022 67.72023 72.72024 81.22025 73.6

2025

11-1
D-I rank
#18
Rating
73.6
Listed games · 12
WWWWWWLWWWWW
447 pts scored241 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Georgia StateW 63–7
  2. W2 at KentuckyW 30–23
  3. W3 vs ArkansasW 41–35
  4. W4 vs TulaneW 45–10
  5. W5 vs LSUW 24–19
  6. W7 vs Washington StateW 24–21
  7. W8 at GeorgiaL 35–43
  8. W9 at OklahomaW 34–26
  9. W10 vs South CarolinaW 30–14
  10. W11 vs The CitadelW 49–0
  11. W12 vs FloridaW 34–24
  12. W14 at Mississippi StateW 38–19

2024

9-3
D-I rank
#4
Rating
81.2
Listed games · 12
WWWWLWLWWWLW
450 pts scored167 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs FurmanW 76–0
  2. W2 vs Middle TennesseeW 52–3
  3. W3 at Wake ForestW 40–6
  4. W4 vs Georgia SouthernW 52–13
  5. W5 vs KentuckyL 17–20
  6. W6 at South CarolinaW 27–3
  7. W7 at LSUL 26–29
  8. W9 vs OklahomaW 26–14
  9. W10 at ArkansasW 63–31
  10. W11 vs GeorgiaW 28–10
  11. W13 at FloridaL 17–24
  12. W14 vs Mississippi StateW 26–14

2023

10-2
D-I rank
#21
Rating
72.7
Listed games · 12
WWWLWWWWWLWW
418 pts scored268 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs MercerW 73–7
  2. W2 at TulaneW 37–20
  3. W3 vs Georgia TechW 48–23
  4. W4 at AlabamaL 10–24
  5. W5 vs LSUW 55–49
  6. W6 vs ArkansasW 27–20
  7. W8 at AuburnW 28–21
  8. W9 vs VanderbiltW 33–7
  9. W10 vs Texas A&MW 38–35
  10. W11 at GeorgiaL 17–52
  11. W12 vs UL MonroeW 35–3
  12. W13 at Mississippi StateW 17–7

2022

8-4
D-I rank
#32
Rating
67.7
Listed games · 12
WWWWWWWLWLLL
410 pts scored290 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs TroyW 28–10
  2. W2 vs Central ArkansasW 59–3
  3. W3 at Georgia TechW 42–0
  4. W4 vs TulsaW 35–27
  5. W5 vs KentuckyW 22–19
  6. W6 at VanderbiltW 52–28
  7. W7 vs AuburnW 48–34
  8. W8 at LSUL 20–45
  9. W9 at Texas A&MW 31–28
  10. W11 vs AlabamaL 24–30
  11. W12 at ArkansasL 27–42
  12. W13 vs Mississippi StateL 22–24