Passing
LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU offense
- #15
- MISS defense
- #98
EPA comparison
0.45
#15
0.25
#98
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 1 · Sun Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET · neutral site
Forecast win probability
LOU 28.5%71.5% MISS
- Projected margin
- MISS by 9.1
- Projected total
- 55
- 80% outcome range
- LOU 11 to MISS 30
- Win probability
- MISS 71.5%
FinalLOU 38 · MISS 41model had +9.1, off by 6.1
Current team profiles
Louisville
Ole MissWhen Louisville has the ball
Rushing
LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU offense
- #17
- MISS defense
- #102
EPA comparison
0.25
#17
0.13
#102
Rush EPA
Drive success
LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU offense
- #18
- MISS defense
- #114
Success rates
50%
#18
45%
#114
Success rate
More metrics
0.34
#6
0.15
#105
EPA / play
1.39
#9
1.17
#42
Explosiveness
15%
#84
16%
#65
Havoc
When Ole Miss has the ball
Passing
MISS offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU defense
- #116
- MISS offense
- #15
EPA comparison
0.33
#116
0.45
#15
Pass EPA
Rushing
MISS offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU defense
- #47
- MISS offense
- #42
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
0.17
#42
Rush EPA
Drive success
MISS offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU defense
- #74
- MISS offense
- #4
Success rates
41%
#74
53%
#4
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#93
0.27
#26
EPA / play
1.25
#86
1.13
#115
Explosiveness
14%
#104
13%
#37
Havoc
Current key players
LouisvilleQBLincoln Kienholz
1394 yds · 9 TD · 1 INT
83.951/729
LBTrent Carter
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 84.2
- Coverage
- 72.8
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
90.013/1796
RBBraxton Jennings
31 yds · 1 TD · 7.8 YPC
86.326/1044
WRTre Richardson
28 rec · 445 yds · 2 TD
80.258/2069
LBJacob Smith
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 78.0
- Coverage
- 60.0
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
78.1117/1796
DBBrycen Scott
13 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.5
- Coverage
- 72.1
- Targets allowed
- 13
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 92
- Passer rating allowed
- 76.4
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.6204/2969
Availability reports · 8
- Antonio Watts · CBout · 2026-09-25
Watts has been out of commission due to a knee injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Kris Hughes · WRout · 2026-08-11
Huges has been out of commission due to lower body injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Keyjuan Brown · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Brown is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Hamilton Atkins · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Atkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Elizjah Lewis · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Lewis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Anwar O'Neal · OGQues. · 2026-10-10
O'Neal is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Montavin Quisenberry · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Quisenberry is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Payton Cook · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Cook is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
Ole MissQBTrinidad Chambliss
1222 yds · 8 TD · 3 INT
85.044/729
TECaleb Odom
13 rec · 201 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 74.8
- Run blocking
- 70.3
- Penalties
- 1
79.427/1017
WRDeuce Alexander
27 rec · 429 yds · 4 TD
78.567/2069
WRDillon Alfred
1 rec · 34 yds · 0 TD
77.185/2069
RBKewan Lacy
191 yds · 4 TD · 4.9 YPC
76.0150/1044
CBDorian Barney
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.4
- Coverage
- 72.2
- Targets allowed
- 0
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Missed tackles
- 0
73.5256/2969
Availability reports · 1
- Izaiah Hartrup · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Hartrup is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tigers on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
LOULouisville
MISSOle Miss
vs
Offense
83.9
#45 of 138
QB
Quarterback
85.0
#40 of 138
82.9
#21 of 138
RB
Running backs
70.9
#114 of 138
74.4
#38 of 138
WR
Receivers
77.1
#25 of 138
71.7
#52 of 138
TE
Tight ends
79.4
#26 of 138
63.9
#104 of 138
OL
Offensive line
64.5
#100 of 138
Defense
83.8
#4 of 138
DL
Defensive line
73.0
#71 of 138
79.3
#24 of 138
LB
Linebackers
71.2
#94 of 138
70.7
#87 of 138
DB
Secondary
69.9
#99 of 138