AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sun Sep 6 · 7:30 PM · neutral site
#28Away
Louisville
0-0 · AVR 63.9
21p
#14Home
Ole Miss
0-0 · AVR 73.1
34p
LOU 18%82% MISS
Spread
MISS -13.3
Total
56
Moneyline
LOU+461MISS-461
Against the market
MISS +6.8line MISS -6.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LOU advantageevenMISS advantage →
LOU throw
LOU WR #19
MISS +16
LOU run
MISS +8
MISS throw
MISS protection #58
LOU +7
MISS run
MISS backs #11
LOU +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LOU throws
Tre Richardson
vs
Antonio Kite
X · LOU
CB1 · MISS
92.9
78.2
LOU +15
off the edge· hunting Kienholz
Evan Wibberley
vs
Jonathan Maldonado
LT · LOU
EDGE · MISS
68.8
92.7
MISS +24
when MISS throws
Deuce Alexander
vs
Antonio Watts
X · MISS
CB1 · LOU
68.4
91.0
LOU +23
off the edge· hunting Chambliss
Tommy Kinsler IV
vs
Clev Lubin
LT · MISS
EDGE · LOU
65.2
93.1
LOU +28
when MISS runs
Kewan Lacy
vs
Jacob Smith
RB · MISS
MLB · LOU
90.1
67.9
MISS +22
when LOU runs
Isaac Brown
vs
Suntarine Perkins
RB · LOU
MLB · MISS
73.6
78.6
MISS +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisville
WRTre Richardson
92.92/777
DBAntonio Watts
91.09/1427
DBTayon Holloway
81.082/1427
DBKoen Entringer
75.0153/1427
RBIsaac Brownout
73.642/514
LBJacob Smith
67.9178/878

also out — K. Hughes (WR), M. Quisenberry (WR)

Ole Miss
QBTrinidad Chambliss
98.71/308
RBKewan Lacy
90.11/514
LBSuntarine Perkins
78.670/878
CBAntonio Kite
78.2110/1427
CBCedrick Beavers
72.4185/1427
WRDeuce Alexander
68.463/777

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 33
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMISS +13.3MKT95% interval: -15 to 4280% interval: -6 to 33-6+33LOU wins 18%MISS wins 82%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MISS 35–21 LOUMISS 32–46 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 35–42 LOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMISS 39–39 LOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMISS 42–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 46–32 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 49–28 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 53–25 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 56–21 LOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMISS 60–18 LOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMISS 28–42 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 32–39 LOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMISS 35–35 LOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMISS 39–32 LOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMISS 42–28 LOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMISS 46–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMISS 49–21 LOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMISS 53–18 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 56–14 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 25–39 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 28–35 LOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 32–32 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 35–28 LOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMISS 39–25 LOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMISS 42–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMISS 46–18 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 49–14 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 53–11 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 21–35 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 25–32 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 28–28 LOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMISS 32–25 LOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMISS 35–21 LOU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMISS 39–18 LOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMISS 42–14 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 46–11 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 49–7 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 18–32 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 21–28 LOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 25–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 28–21 LOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMISS 32–18 LOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMISS 35–14 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMISS 39–11 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 42–7 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 46–4 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 14–28 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 18–25 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 21–21 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 25–18 LOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMISS 28–14 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMISS 32–11 LOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMISS 35–7 LOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMISS 39–4 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 42–0 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 11–25 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 14–21 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 18–18 LOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMISS 21–14 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 25–11 LOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMISS 28–7 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 32–4 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 35–0 LOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalLOU +14PKMISS +14MISS +28MISS +42margin →