FCS Playoff Projection
The 24-team bracket, simulated from the FCS ratings. Eleven conference champions take automatic bids and thirteen teams are chosen at large; the top eight are seeded and skip the first round.
Updated: Week 5 - 10.11.26 21:57 EDT
Every remaining game simulated 20,000 times from the current FCS ratings, then the conference races, the bids and the bracket. 19 teams currently project into the field more often than not. The SWAC and MEAC champions meet in the Celebration Bowl rather than entering, and their teams reach the bracket only at large. The final is at FirstBank Stadium, Nashville.
| Team | Conference | Wins | Auto | Field | Seed | Semis | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Montana Stateseed 1 | Big Sky | 9.2 | 23 | >99 | 93 | 51 | 18 |
 South Dakota Stateseed 1 | MVFC | 9.6 | 55 | 99 | 85 | 43 | 14 |
 Youngstown Stateseed 3 | MVFC | 8.0 | 22 | 98 | 72 | 34 | 9 |
 Tarleton Stateseed 3 | UAC | 9.6 | 57 | 98 | 70 | 32 | 9 |
 Stephen F. Austinseed 3 | Southland | 9.9 | 80 | 98 | 70 | 31 | 8 |
 Montanaseed 4 | Big Sky | 9.6 | 69 | 98 | 67 | 31 | 8 |
 Lehighseed 4 | Patriot | 10.9 | 83 | 97 | 54 | 24 | 6 |
 North Dakotaseed 6 | MVFC | 8.3 | 15 | 96 | 56 | 25 | 6 |
 Illinois Stateseed 8 | MVFC | 5.7 | 1 | 92 | 45 | 20 | 4 |
 South Dakotaseed 7 | MVFC | 7.6 | 4 | 88 | 36 | 16 | 3 |
 Mercerseed 8 | Southern | 8.4 | 21 | 81 | 25 | 12 | 2 |
 Southern Illinoisseed 8 | MVFC | 6.1 | 2 | 79 | 22 | 11 | 2 |
 SE Louisianaseed 8 | Southland | 6.7 | 9 | 79 | 22 | 11 | 2 |
 Tennessee Techseed 8 | Southern | 8.6 | 44 | 81 | 19 | 10 | 2 |
 Harvardseed 8 | Ivy | 8.1 | 52 | 80 | 18 | 9 | 2 |
 Austin Peayseed 8 | UAC | 9.1 | 26 | 68 | 12 | 7 | 1 |
 Yaleseed 8 | Ivy | 6.7 | 16 | 57 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
 Abilene Christianseed 8 | UAC | 5.7 | 13 | 51 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
 Lamarseed 8 | Southland | 8.2 | 10 | 41 | 4 | 3 | <1 |
 UC Davisseed 8 | Big Sky | 8.3 | 2 | 32 | 2 | 2 | <1 |
 Western Carolinaseed 8 | Southern | 7.1 | 7 | 33 | 2 | 2 | <1 |
 East Tennessee Stateseed 8 | Southern | 6.9 | 25 | 40 | 2 | 2 | <1 |
 Rhode Islandseed 8 | Coastal Athletic | 7.1 | 3 | 27 | 2 | 1 | <1 |
 Alabama Stateseed 8 | SWAC | 6.8 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 1 | <1 |
 UT Rio Grande Valleyseed 8 | Southland | 5.2 | 1 | 23 | 1 | 1 | <1 |
 Villanovaseed 8 | Patriot | 5.9 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 1 | <1 |
 Colgateseed 8 | Patriot | 7.9 | 13 | 23 | 1 | 1 | <1 |
 Stony Brookseed 8 | Coastal Athletic | 7.8 | 24 | 31 | <1 | 1 | <1 |
 Incarnate Wordseed 8 | Southland | 5.2 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 1 | <1 |
 Dartmouthseed 8 | Ivy | 5.0 | 13 | 20 | <1 | 1 | <1 |
Conference champions are taken on conference win percentage, seeding and at-large selection on rating. The committee weighs record and schedule against the field and places unseeded teams partly by travel, so real pairings will differ from a straight-seeded bracket.