AVRCFB Model

Predictions

Win probability, projected score, and a calibrated margin for every game. FCS predictions

Season
2026
Weeks
15
Games
888
Game of the weekSat Aug 29 · 3:30 PMFull breakdown
#34NC State
0-1 · AVR 60.6
8
#49Virginia
1-0 · AVR 55.7
34
NCSU 21%79% UVA
Spread
UVA -11.7
Total
54
Margin σ
14.6
Margin distribution
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUVA +11.7MKTActual margin: UVA +26ACTUAL95% interval: -18 to 4280% interval: -7 to 32-7+32NCSU wins 21%UVA wins 79%
Sat Aug 29 · 12:00 PM· neutral sitefinal · model ✗
#61North Carolina
1-0 · AVR 50.8
15proj 14
#32TCU
0-1 · AVR 61.0
10proj 33
Pregame win probability
UNC 11%89% TCU
model +19.2 · off by 24.2Full breakdown ›
Sat Aug 29 · 3:00 PMfinal · model ✓
#123San José State
0-1 · AVR 30.7
26proj 11
#10USC
1-0 · AVR 74.6
42proj 49
Pregame win probability
SJSU 0%100% USC
model +38.0 · off by 22.0Full breakdown ›
Sat Aug 29 · 5:30 PMfinal · model ✓
#89Jacksonville State
0-1 · AVR 43.6
7proj 15
#81North Dakota State
1-0 · AVR 46.6
33proj 32
Pregame win probability
JXST 12%88% NDSU
model +16.7 · off by 9.3Full breakdown ›
Sat Aug 29 · 6:30 PM
#111Sacramento State
0-0 · AVR 35.0
19p
#112Eastern Michigan
0-0 · AVR 35.0
34p
SAC 14%86% EMU
SpreadEMU -15.5Total53Full breakdown ›
Sat Aug 29 · 7:00 PM
#130New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
7p
#30Florida State
0-0 · AVR 62.6
47p
NMSU 0%100% FSU
SpreadFSU -40.2Total54Full breakdown ›
Sat Aug 29 · 7:00 PM
#90Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 43.3
14p
#96Stanford
0-0 · AVR 41.0
36p
HAW 7%93% STAN
SpreadSTAN -21.9Total50Full breakdown ›
Sat Aug 29 · 10:00 PM
#63Memphis
0-0 · AVR 50.4
25p
#70UNLV
0-0 · AVR 48.6
33p
MEM 31%69% UNLV
SpreadUNLV -7.8Total58Full breakdown ›