CFB
Model
All rankings
Big 12

Texas Tech

Red Raiders5-02nd in Big 12
Jones AT&T Stadium · Lubbock, TX · 60,454
TeamMiddle of the pack
OffenseMethodical · solidweak point: avoiding disruption, 126th
DefenseStingy until it breaks · strongweak point: big plays allowed, 102nd

The season

Best win
W 28-26 vs #13 Houston
Wk 3 · Sep 18 · model had 77%
Undefeated.

Schedule

model 5/5 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    vsAbilene Christian
    W 33–10
    Win chance >99%Model margin +46.4Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    atOregon State
    W 35–24
    Win chance 95%Model margin +22.1Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 18
    vsHouston
    W 28–26
    Win chance 77%Model margin +10.1Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsSam Houston
    W 49–14
    Win chance 97%Model margin +24.7Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    atColorado
    W 29–7
    Win chance 90%Model margin +17.5Game details
  6. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsArizona State
    Win chance 95%Model margin +22.2Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atCincinnati
    Win chance 87%Model margin +14.9Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsArizona
    Win chance 84%Model margin +13.2Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsWest Virginia
    Win chance 95%Model margin +22.5Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atOklahoma State
    Win chance 95%Model margin +21.6Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    atBaylor
    Win chance 85%Model margin +13.7Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 27
    vsTCU
    Win chance 90%Model margin +17.0Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
52
#64 of 138
Defense efficiency
74
#32 of 138
Efficiency
#510.19
EPA / play
#17-0.06
#330.36
Pass
#300.02
#420.17
Rush
#22-0.09
#4247%
Success
#3536%
Big plays & havoc
#1051.15
Explosive
#1021.29
#12619%
Havoc
#5617%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB116th
RB64th
WR124th
TE21st
OL47th
DL50th
LB21st
DB32nd

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Will HammondJR
1102 yds · 5 TD · 5 INT
66.1
203rd QB
RB
J'Koby WilliamsJR
373 yds · 3 TD · 5.9 YPC
78.5
99th RB
WR
Kenny JohnsonSR
17 rec · 298 yds · 1 TD
67.5
355th WR
WR
Malcolm SimmonsJR
2 rec · 91 yds · 2 TD
67.4
361st WR
TE
Terrance Carter Jr.SR
13 rec · 129 yds · 1 TD
81.1
21st TE
Defense
LB
Austin RomaineSR
33 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
85.2
36th LB
LB
Corey Platt Jr.SR
11 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
79.8
85th LB
CB
Davin MartinSR
13 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
78.0
96th DB
S
Malik EsquerraJR
27 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
77.2
115th DB
S
Brenden JordanSR
18 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
75.8
163rd DB

Injury report

1 out
out
Cameron DickeyRB

Dickey is battling with a sprained ankle injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

67.710-05
Ques.
Trey WhiteLB

White is battling with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Colorado on Saturday, October 3rd.

66.309-26
Ques.
Amier BoydCB

Boyd is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Colorado on Saturday, October 3rd.

58.909-26
probable
Terrance Carter Jr.TE

Carter Jr is nursing a shoulder injury, but he is expected to play against Colorado on Saturday.

81.109-28

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsArizona State
    Playoff chance if win
    88.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    66.3%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atCincinnati
    Playoff chance if win
    90.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    73.0%
  3. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsArizona
    Playoff chance if win
    90.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    72.7%
  4. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsWest Virginia
    Playoff chance if win
    88.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    69.3%
  5. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atOklahoma State
    Playoff chance if win
    89.0%
    Playoff chance if loss
    67.2%
  6. Week 12 · Nov 21
    atBaylor
    Playoff chance if win
    90.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    72.9%
  7. Week 13 · Nov 27
    vsTCU
    Playoff chance if win
    89.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    71.9%

Past seasons

Year by year
+17.0 points since 2022
5063758810066.9202267.8202364.9202483.92025
2022 66.92023 67.82024 64.92025 83.9

2025

12-1
D-I rank
#4
Rating
83.9
Listed games · 13
WWWWWWLWWWWWW
552 pts scored142 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Arkansas-Pine BluffW 67–7
  2. W2 vs Kent StateW 62–14
  3. W3 vs Oregon StateW 45–14
  4. W4 at UtahW 34–10
  5. W6 at HoustonW 35–11
  6. W7 vs KansasW 42–17
  7. W8 at Arizona StateL 22–26
  8. W9 vs Oklahoma StateW 42–0
  9. W10 at Kansas StateW 43–20
  10. W11 vs BYUW 29–7
  11. W12 vs UCFW 48–9
  12. W14 at West VirginiaW 49–0
  13. W15 vs BYUW 34–7

2024

8-4
D-I rank
#54
Rating
64.9
Listed games · 12
WLWWWWLLWLWW
463 pts scored414 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Abilene ChristianW 52–51
  2. W2 at Washington StateL 16–37
  3. W3 vs North TexasW 66–21
  4. W4 vs Arizona StateW 30–22
  5. W5 vs CincinnatiW 44–41
  6. W6 at ArizonaW 28–22
  7. W8 vs BaylorL 35–59
  8. W9 at TCUL 34–35
  9. W10 at Iowa StateW 23–22
  10. W11 vs ColoradoL 27–41
  11. W13 at Oklahoma StateW 56–48
  12. W14 vs West VirginiaW 52–15

2023

6-6
D-I rank
#33
Rating
67.8
Listed games · 12
LLWLWWLLWWWL
322 pts scored324 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at WyomingL 33–35
  2. W2 vs OregonL 30–38
  3. W3 vs Tarleton StateW 41–3
  4. W4 at West VirginiaL 13–20
  5. W5 vs HoustonW 49–28
  6. W6 at BaylorW 39–14
  7. W7 vs Kansas StateL 21–38
  8. W8 at BYUL 14–27
  9. W10 vs TCUW 35–28
  10. W11 at KansasW 16–13
  11. W12 vs UCFW 24–23
  12. W13 at TexasL 7–57

2022

7-5
D-I rank
#36
Rating
66.9
Listed games · 12
WWLWLLWLLWWW
403 pts scored354 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Murray StateW 63–10
  2. W2 vs HoustonW 33–30
  3. W3 at NC StateL 14–27
  4. W4 vs TexasW 37–34
  5. W5 at Kansas StateL 28–37
  6. W6 at Oklahoma StateL 31–41
  7. W8 vs West VirginiaW 48–10
  8. W9 vs BaylorL 17–45
  9. W10 at TCUL 24–34
  10. W11 vs KansasW 43–28
  11. W12 at Iowa StateW 14–10
  12. W13 vs OklahomaW 51–48