CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Thu Nov 26 · 8:00 PM ET
Saddle Trophy
Forecast win probability
TCU 13.7%86.3% TTU
Projected margin
TTU by 17.0
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
TCU 2 to TTU 36
Win probability
TTU 86.3%

Current team profiles

TCU
Texas Tech

When TCU has the ball

Passing

TTU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TCU offense
#55
TTU defense
#30
EPA comparison
0.27
#55
0.02
#30
Pass EPA

Rushing

TTU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TCU offense
#113
TTU defense
#22
EPA comparison
-0.01
#113
-0.09
#22
Rush EPA

Drive success

TTU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TCU offense
#57
TTU defense
#35
Success rates
45%
#57
36%
#35
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#77
-0.06
#17
EPA / play
1.24
#63
1.29
#102
Explosiveness
15%
#69
17%
#56
Havoc

When Texas Tech has the ball

Passing

TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TCU defense
#17
TTU offense
#33
EPA comparison
-0.01
#17
0.36
#33
Pass EPA

Rushing

TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TCU defense
#8
TTU offense
#42
EPA comparison
-0.17
#8
0.17
#42
Rush EPA

Drive success

TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TCU defense
#33
TTU offense
#42
Success rates
36%
#33
47%
#42
Success rate
More metrics
-0.10
#7
0.19
#51
EPA / play
0.96
#1
1.15
#105
Explosiveness
18%
#39
19%
#126
Havoc

Current key players

TCU
QBJaden Craig
1400 yds · 8 TD · 4 INT
79.672/729
TEKari Ashley
25 rec · 374 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
55.0
Run blocking
64.8
Penalties
0
84.113/1017
SKaden McFadden
14 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
92.9
Coverage
67.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
3
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
82.838/2969
CBVernon Glover Jr.
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
91.3
Coverage
75.3
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
22.9
Missed tackles
1
79.175/2969
LBHudson Hooper
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.8
Coverage
81.2
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
78.3114/1796
LBKeylan Abrams
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.8
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.3131/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Michael Short · LBout · 2026-10-01

    Short is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Jordan Dwyer · WRout · 2026-09-11

    Dwyer is dealing with a foot injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • J. Pitchford · RBout · 2026-10-01

    Pitchford has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Cougars on Saturday.

  • Kyle Lemmermann · KQues. · 2026-10-01

    Lemmermann is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cougars on Saturday.

Texas Tech
QBWill Hammond
1102 yds · 5 TD · 5 INT
66.1203/729
LBAustin Romaine
33 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.3
Coverage
82.6
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
20
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
85.236/1796
TETerrance Carter Jr.
13 rec · 129 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
69.8
Run blocking
83.9
Penalties
0
81.121/1017
LBCorey Platt Jr.
11 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
51.4
Coverage
88.9
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
79.885/1796
RBJ'Koby Williams
373 yds · 3 TD · 5.9 YPC
78.599/1044
CBDavin Martin
13 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.8
Coverage
77.4
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
111
Passer rating allowed
78.7
Missed tackles
1
78.096/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Cameron Dickey · RBout · 2026-10-05

    Dickey is battling with a sprained ankle injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Trey White · LBQues. · 2026-09-26

    White is battling with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Colorado on Saturday, October 3rd.

  • Amier Boyd · CBQues. · 2026-09-26

    Boyd is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Colorado on Saturday, October 3rd.

  • Terrance Carter Jr. · TEprobable · 2026-09-28

    Carter Jr is nursing a shoulder injury, but he is expected to play against Colorado on Saturday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

TCU
TTU
vs
Offense
79.6
#58 of 138
QB
66.1
#116 of 138
74.7
#74 of 138
RB
76.2
#64 of 138
67.7
#112 of 138
WR
66.7
#124 of 138
84.1
#13 of 138
TE
81.1
#21 of 138
69.3
#58 of 138
OL
70.9
#47 of 138
Defense
77.0
#37 of 138
DL
75.4
#50 of 138
76.8
#46 of 138
LB
80.1
#21 of 138
77.8
#10 of 138
DB
75.1
#32 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

TCU
opponent
Texas Tech
A-6.5
ARIZ#25
+13.2H
H+8.1
WVU#86
+22.5H
A-0.7
BAY#41
+13.7A