AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 1:00 AM
Saddle Trophy
#32Away
TCU
0-1 · AVR 61.0
22p
#5Home
Texas Tech
0-0 · AVR 77.5
37p
TCU 14%86% TTU
Spread
TTU -15.7
Total
59
Moneyline
TCU+605TTU-605
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TCU advantageevenTTU advantage →
TCU throw
TCU protection #62
TTU +25
TCU run
TTU +37
TTU throw
TTU +21
TTU run
TTU backs #1
TTU +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TCU throws
Jordan Dwyer
vs
Brice Pollock
X · TCU
CB1 · TTU
84.9
100.7
TTU +16
when TCU runs
Jeremy Payne
vs
Adam Trick
RB · TCU
MLB · TTU
73.4
91.3
TTU +18
when TTU runs
Cameron Dickey
vs
Paul Oyewale
RB · TTU
MLB · TCU
83.8
75.3
TTU +9
when TTU throws
Donte Lee Jr.
vs
Kalen Carroll
X · TTU
CB1 · TCU
67.3
86.7
TCU +19
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Cade Bennett
vs
A.J. Holmes Jr.
LT · TCU
EDGE · TTU
51.8
97.7
TTU +46
over the middle
Terrance Carter Jr.
vs
Vernon Glover Jr.
TE · TTU
FS · TCU
79.4
63.2
TTU +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
TCU
CBKalen Carroll
86.732/1427
WRJordan Dwyer
84.914/777
LBPaul Oyewale
75.3105/878
RBJeremy Payne
73.443/514
LBZach Chapmanprobable
69.9145/878
SRyan Yaites
65.2350/1427

also out — Jacob Fields (S), D. Ezukanma (WR)

Texas Tech
CBBrice Pollock
100.73/1427
LBAdam Trick
91.39/878
LBAdam Hill
90.411/878
CBAshton Hamptonquestionable
84.452/1427
RBCameron Dickey
83.812/514
CBAmier Boyd
83.857/1427

also out — Cash Cleveland (OL)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
TCU
opponent
Texas Tech
away-5.9
Arizona#26
+12.3home
away-0.2
Baylor#42
+13.0away
home+11.5
West Virginia#66
+24.7home

Projected margin

80% between -2 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTTU +15.795% interval: -8.9 to 40.380% interval: -2.2 to 33.6-2+34TCU wins 14%TTU wins 86%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TTU 35–21 TCUTTU 32–46 TCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTTU 35–42 TCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 39–39 TCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 42–35 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTTU 46–32 TCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTTU 49–28 TCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTTU 53–25 TCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTTU 56–21 TCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTTU 60–18 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTTU 28–42 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 32–39 TCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTTU 35–35 TCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTTU 39–32 TCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTTU 42–28 TCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTTU 46–25 TCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 49–21 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTTU 53–18 TCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTTU 56–14 TCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTTU 25–39 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 28–35 TCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTTU 32–32 TCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTTU 35–28 TCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 39–25 TCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTTU 42–21 TCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTTU 46–18 TCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTTU 49–14 TCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 53–11 TCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 21–35 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 25–32 TCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTTU 28–28 TCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTTU 32–25 TCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 35–21 TCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTTU 39–18 TCU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 42–14 TCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTTU 46–11 TCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 49–7 TCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 18–32 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTTU 21–28 TCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTTU 25–25 TCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTTU 28–21 TCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTTU 32–18 TCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTTU 35–14 TCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTTU 39–11 TCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 42–7 TCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTTU 46–4 TCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTTU 14–28 TCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTTU 18–25 TCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 21–21 TCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 25–18 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTTU 28–14 TCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTTU 32–11 TCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTTU 35–7 TCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTTU 39–4 TCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTTU 42–0 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTTU 11–25 TCU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTTU 14–21 TCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTTU 18–18 TCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTTU 21–14 TCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 25–11 TCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTTU 28–7 TCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTTU 32–4 TCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 35–0 TCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalTCU +14PKTTU +14TTU +28TTU +42margin →