CFB
Model
All rankings
Big 12

TCU

Horned Frogs2-37th in Big 12
Amon G. Carter Stadium · Fort Worth, TX · 46,000
TeamCarried by the defense
OffensePassing attack · averageweak point: run game, 113th
DefenseSmothering · elite

The season

Best win
W 31-7 vs #91 Arkansas State
Wk 3 · Sep 19 · model had 92%
Worst loss
L 10-15 vs (N) #60 North Carolina
Wk 1 · Aug 29 · lost as a 67% favorite

Schedule

model 4/5 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Aug 29
    vsNorth CarolinaNeutral
    L 10–15
    Win chance 67%Model margin +5.8Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsGrambling
    W 63–7
    Win chance >99%Model margin +44.9Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsArkansas State
    W 31–7
    Win chance 92%Model margin +18.5Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    atUCF
    L 13–21
    Win chance 37%Model margin -4.4Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsBYU
    L 10–17
    Win chance 44%Model margin -1.9Game details
  6. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atBaylor
    Win chance 48%Model margin -0.7Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsWest Virginia
    Win chance 73%Model margin +8.1Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsKansas
    Win chance 77%Model margin +10.0Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atArizona
    Win chance 32%Model margin -6.5Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsKansas State
    Win chance 59%Model margin +2.9Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsUtah
    Win chance 26%Model margin -8.8Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 27
    atTexas Tech
    Win chance 10%Model margin -17.0Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
53
#63 of 138
Defense efficiency
81
#23 of 138
Efficiency
#770.13
EPA / play
#7-0.10
#550.27
Pass
#17-0.01
#113-0.01
Rush
#8-0.17
#5745%
Success
#3336%
Big plays & havoc
#631.24
Explosive
#10.96
#6915%
Havoc
#3918%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB58th
RB74th
WR112th
TE13th
OL58th
DL37th
LB46th
DB10th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Jaden CraigSR
1400 yds · 8 TD · 4 INT
79.6
72nd QB
RB
Landon WalkerSR
31 yds · 0 TD · 7.8 YPC
75.5
167th RB
WR
Ed SmallSO
28 rec · 403 yds · 1 TD
69.1
297th WR
WR
Jacobe HayesSO
9 rec · 133 yds · 0 TD
67.6
354th WR
TE
Kari AshleySR
25 rec · 374 yds · 4 TD
84.1
13th TE
Defense
LB
Hudson HooperSR
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
78.3
114th LB
LB
Keylan AbramsSO
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
77.3
131st LB
S
Kaden McFaddenJR
14 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
82.8
38th DB
CB
Vernon Glover Jr.SR
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
79.1
75th DB
CB
Teon ParksSR
1 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
77.1
119th DB

Injury report

3 out
out
Michael ShortLB

Short is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

74.810-01
out
Jordan DwyerWR

Dwyer is dealing with a foot injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

63.309-11
out
J. PitchfordRB

Pitchford has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Cougars on Saturday.

66.610-01
Ques.
Kyle LemmermannK

Lemmermann is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cougars on Saturday.

60.010-01

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atBaylor
    Playoff chance if win
    0.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.0%
  2. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atArizona
    Playoff chance if win
    0.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.0%
  3. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsKansas State
    Playoff chance if win
    0.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.0%
  4. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsUtah
    Playoff chance if win
    0.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.0%
  5. Week 13 · Nov 27
    atTexas Tech
    Playoff chance if win
    1.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.0%

Past seasons

Year by year
-6.0 points since 2022
506070809075.9202265.6202367.0202469.92025
2022 75.92023 65.62024 67.02025 69.9

2025

8-4
D-I rank
#32
Rating
69.9
Listed games · 12
WWWLWLWWLLWW
369 pts scored302 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at North CarolinaW 48–14
  2. W3 vs Abilene ChristianW 42–21
  3. W4 vs SMUW 35–24
  4. W5 at Arizona StateL 24–27
  5. W6 vs ColoradoW 35–21
  6. W7 at Kansas StateL 28–41
  7. W8 vs BaylorW 42–36
  8. W9 at West VirginiaW 23–17
  9. W11 vs Iowa StateL 17–20
  10. W12 at BYUL 13–44
  11. W13 at HoustonW 17–14
  12. W14 vs CincinnatiW 45–23

2024

8-4
D-I rank
#38
Rating
67.0
Listed games · 12
WWLLWLWWLWWW
401 pts scored317 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at StanfordW 34–27
  2. W2 vs Long Island UniversityW 45–0
  3. W3 vs UCFL 34–35
  4. W4 at SMUL 42–66
  5. W5 vs KansasW 38–27
  6. W6 vs HoustonL 19–30
  7. W8 at UtahW 13–7
  8. W9 vs Texas TechW 35–34
  9. W10 at BaylorL 34–37
  10. W11 vs Oklahoma StateW 38–13
  11. W13 vs ArizonaW 49–28
  12. W14 at CincinnatiW 20–13

2023

5-7
D-I rank
#43
Rating
65.6
Listed games · 12
LWWWLLWLLLWL
376 pts scored334 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs ColoradoL 42–45
  2. W2 vs NichollsW 41–6
  3. W3 at HoustonW 36–13
  4. W4 vs SMUW 34–17
  5. W5 vs West VirginiaL 21–24
  6. W6 at Iowa StateL 14–27
  7. W7 vs BYUW 44–11
  8. W8 at Kansas StateL 3–41
  9. W10 at Texas TechL 28–35
  10. W11 vs TexasL 26–29
  11. W12 vs BaylorW 42–17
  12. W13 at OklahomaL 45–69

2022

12-1
D-I rank
#9
Rating
75.9
Listed games · 13
WWWWWWWWWWWWL
524 pts scored325 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at ColoradoW 38–13
  2. W2 vs Tarleton StateW 59–17
  3. W4 at SMUW 42–34
  4. W5 vs OklahomaW 55–24
  5. W6 at KansasW 38–31
  6. W7 vs Oklahoma StateW 43–40
  7. W8 vs Kansas StateW 38–28
  8. W9 at West VirginiaW 41–31
  9. W10 vs Texas TechW 34–24
  10. W11 at TexasW 17–10
  11. W12 at BaylorW 29–28
  12. W13 vs Iowa StateW 62–14
  13. W14 vs Kansas StateL 28–31