AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#44Away
Kansas State
0-0 · AVR 57.1
27p
#32Home
TCU
0-1 · AVR 61.0
31p
KSU 38%62% TCU
Spread
TCU -4.2
Total
59
Moneyline
KSU+164TCU-164
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KSU advantageevenTCU advantage →
KSU throw
KSU protection #103
KSU +9
KSU run
KSU line #103KSU backs #16
even
TCU throw
TCU protection #62
KSU +6
TCU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TCU throws
Jordan Dwyer
vs
Ja'son Prevard
X · TCU
CB1 · KSU
84.9
84.6
dead even
when KSU runs
Joe Jackson
vs
Paul Oyewale
RB · KSU
MLB · TCU
81.0
75.3
KSU +6
when KSU throws
Josh Manning
vs
Kalen Carroll
X · KSU
CB1 · TCU
61.3
86.7
TCU +25
when TCU runs
Jeremy Payne
vs
Mekhi Mason
RB · TCU
MLB · KSU
73.4
70.3
TCU +3
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Cade Bennett
vs
Elijah Hill
LT · TCU
EDGE · KSU
51.8
82.5
KSU +31
over the middle
Garrett Oakley
vs
Vernon Glover Jr.
TE · KSU
FS · TCU
67.4
63.2
KSU +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kansas State
SJa'son Prevard
84.650/1427
RBJoe Jackson
81.020/514
CBZashon Rich
81.084/1427
QBAvery Johnson
73.331/308
SKoy Beasley
70.7221/1427
LBMekhi Mason
70.3138/878

also out — Fans Should Look, Kansas State offensive line (OL), Morley (OL), OL starter (OL), Pastore (OL), George Fitzpatrick (OL), John Pastore (OL), Tackle John Pastore +3 more

TCU
CBKalen Carroll
86.732/1427
WRJordan Dwyer
84.914/777
LBPaul Oyewale
75.3105/878
RBJeremy Payne
73.443/514
LBZach Chapmanprobable
69.9145/878
SRyan Yaites
65.2350/1427

also out — Jacob Fields (S), D. Ezukanma (WR)

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kansas State
opponent
TCU
home-2.6
Arizona#26
-5.9away
home+4.5
Kansas#50
+6.2home

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTCU +4.295% interval: -19.7 to 28.180% interval: -13.1 to 21.6-13+22KSU wins 38%TCU wins 62%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TCU 32–25 KSUTCU 28–49 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 32–46 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTCU 35–42 KSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTCU 39–39 KSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 42–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTCU 46–32 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTCU 49–28 KSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTCU 53–25 KSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 56–21 KSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 25–46 KSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 28–42 KSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTCU 32–39 KSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTCU 35–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTCU 39–32 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTCU 42–28 KSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTCU 46–25 KSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 49–21 KSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 53–18 KSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 21–42 KSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 25–39 KSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 28–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTCU 32–32 KSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTCU 35–28 KSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTCU 39–25 KSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTCU 42–21 KSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 46–18 KSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 49–14 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 18–39 KSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 21–35 KSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 25–32 KSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTCU 28–28 KSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTCU 32–25 KSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTCU 35–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTCU 39–18 KSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 42–14 KSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 46–11 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 14–35 KSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 18–32 KSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTCU 21–28 KSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 25–25 KSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTCU 28–21 KSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTCU 32–18 KSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTCU 35–14 KSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTCU 39–11 KSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 42–7 KSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 11–32 KSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 14–28 KSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTCU 18–25 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTCU 21–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTCU 25–18 KSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTCU 28–14 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTCU 32–11 KSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTCU 35–7 KSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 39–4 KSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 7–28 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 11–25 KSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 14–21 KSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 18–18 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTCU 21–14 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTCU 25–11 KSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTCU 28–7 KSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTCU 32–4 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 35–0 KSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalKSU +21KSU +7TCU +7TCU +21TCU +35margin →