CFB
Model
All rankings
Big 12

Kansas State

Wildcats3-28th in Big 12
Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Manhattan, KS · 50,000
TeamWell-rounded
OffenseMethodical running attack · strongweak point: explosiveness, 98th
DefenseHavoc-driven · average · built to defend the passweak point: big plays allowed, 134th

The season

Best win
W 31-20 vs #85 Tulane
Wk 3 · Sep 19 · model had 96%
Worst loss
L 26-31 @ #59 Cincinnati
Wk 4 · Sep 26 · lost as a 51% favorite

Schedule

model 4/5 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    vsNicholls
    W 71–3
    Win chance >99%Model margin +38.4Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsWashington State
    W 34–7
    Win chance 87%Model margin +15.3Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsTulane
    W 31–20
    Win chance 96%Model margin +23.9Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    atCincinnati
    L 26–31
    Win chance 51%Model margin +0.5Game details
  5. Week 6 · Oct 10
    vsHouston
    L 16–35
    Win chance 50%Model margin -0.2Game details
  6. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsKansas
    Win chance 76%Model margin +9.7Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atArizona State
    Win chance 57%Model margin +2.2Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atColorado
    Win chance 75%Model margin +9.2Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsOklahoma State
    Win chance 82%Model margin +12.3Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atTCU
    Win chance 41%Model margin -2.9Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsArizona
    Win chance 46%Model margin -1.5Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atIowa State
    Win chance 43%Model margin -2.4Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
68
#35 of 138
Defense efficiency
70
#39 of 138
Efficiency
#250.27
EPA / play
#800.08
#470.28
Pass
#600.11
#90.27
Rush
#930.10
#1251%
Success
#2635%
Big plays & havoc
#981.17
Explosive
#1341.44
#69%
Havoc
#2120%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB69th
RB55th
WR115th
TE57th
OL4th
DL72nd
LB9th
DB78th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Jacob KnuthSR
7 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
78.0
89th QB
RB
Jay HarrisSR
88 yds · 3 TD · 6.3 YPC
80.3
74th RB
WR
Derrick Salley Jr.JR
11 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD
68.5
326th WR
WR
Izaiah WilliamsJR
2 rec · 21 yds · 0 TD
67.2
369th WR
TE
Garrett OakleySR
13 rec · 147 yds · 0 TD
70.9
76th TE
Defense
LB
Jacobi Oliphant Jr.JR
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
90.5
9th LB
LB
Ashton MooreSO
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
83.2
56th LB
S
Adrian MaddoxSR
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
77.0
125th DB
CB
Micheal Graham Jr.JR
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
75.5
177th DB
CB
Zashon RichJR
7 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
69.6
468th DB

Injury report

2 out
out
Will AnciauxTE

Anciaux is nursing with a lower leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

68.910-05
out
John PastoreOG

Pastore has been shut down for the remainder of the season with a lower leg injury.

76.2202508-21
Ques.
Jacob KnuthQB

Knuth is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

78.010-11
Ques.
Blake BarnettQB

Barnett is bothered by a lower body injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

74.210-11
Ques.
Arley MorrellTE

Morrell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

—10-11
Ques.
Dillon DuffQB

Duff is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

—10-11
Ques.
Max LovettWR

Lovett id dealing with an arm injury and it is unclear if he will play against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

—10-11

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsKansas
    Playoff chance if win
    0.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atArizona State
    Playoff chance if win
    1.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  3. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atColorado
    Playoff chance if win
    0.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  4. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsOklahoma State
    Playoff chance if win
    0.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  5. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atTCU
    Playoff chance if win
    1.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  6. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsArizona
    Playoff chance if win
    1.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  7. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atIowa State
    Playoff chance if win
    1.2%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.2%

Past seasons

Year by year
-6.3 points since 2022
506070809074.6202275.5202371.3202468.32025
2022 74.62023 75.52024 71.32025 68.3

2025

6-6
D-I rank
#37
Rating
68.3
Listed games · 12
LWLLWLWWLWLW
353 pts scored320 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Iowa StateL 21–24
  2. W1 vs North DakotaW 38–35
  3. W2 vs ArmyL 21–24
  4. W3 at ArizonaL 17–23
  5. W5 vs UCFW 34–20
  6. W6 at BaylorL 34–35
  7. W7 vs TCUW 41–28
  8. W9 at KansasW 42–17
  9. W10 vs Texas TechL 20–43
  10. W12 at Oklahoma StateW 14–6
  11. W13 at UtahL 47–51
  12. W14 vs ColoradoW 24–14

2024

8-4
D-I rank
#25
Rating
71.3
Listed games · 12
WWWLWWWWLLWL
357 pts scored263 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs UT MartinW 41–6
  2. W2 at TulaneW 34–27
  3. W3 vs ArizonaW 31–7
  4. W4 at BYUL 9–38
  5. W5 vs Oklahoma StateW 42–20
  6. W7 at ColoradoW 31–28
  7. W8 at West VirginiaW 45–18
  8. W9 vs KansasW 29–27
  9. W10 at HoustonL 19–24
  10. W12 vs Arizona StateL 14–24
  11. W13 vs CincinnatiW 41–15
  12. W14 at Iowa StateL 21–29

2023

8-4
D-I rank
#13
Rating
75.5
Listed games · 12
WWLWLWWWLWWL
454 pts scored254 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Southeast Missouri StateW 45–0
  2. W2 vs TroyW 42–13
  3. W3 at MissouriL 27–30
  4. W4 vs UCFW 44–31
  5. W6 at Oklahoma StateL 21–29
  6. W7 at Texas TechW 38–21
  7. W8 vs TCUW 41–3
  8. W9 vs HoustonW 41–0
  9. W10 at TexasL 30–33
  10. W11 vs BaylorW 59–25
  11. W12 at KansasW 31–27
  12. W13 vs Iowa StateL 35–42

2022

10-3
D-I rank
#11
Rating
74.6
Listed games · 13
WWLWWWLWLWWWW
432 pts scored261 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs South DakotaW 34–0
  2. W2 vs MissouriW 40–12
  3. W3 vs TulaneL 10–17
  4. W4 at OklahomaW 41–34
  5. W5 vs Texas TechW 37–28
  6. W6 at Iowa StateW 10–9
  7. W8 at TCUL 28–38
  8. W9 vs Oklahoma StateW 48–0
  9. W10 vs TexasL 27–34
  10. W11 at BaylorW 31–3
  11. W12 at West VirginiaW 48–31
  12. W13 vs KansasW 47–27
  13. W14 vs TCUW 31–28