AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#44Away
Kansas State
0-0 · AVR 57.1
27p
#43Home
Arizona State
0-0 · AVR 57.5
28p
KSU 48%52% ASU
Spread
ASU -0.5
Total
55
Moneyline
KSU+109ASU-109
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KSU advantageevenASU advantage →
KSU throw
KSU protection #103
ASU +20
KSU run
KSU line #103KSU backs #16
ASU +14
ASU throw
ASU WR #16ASU protection #115
KSU +24
ASU run
KSU +49

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ASU throws
Omarion Miller
vs
Ja'son Prevard
X · ASU
CB1 · KSU
73.4
84.6
KSU +11
when KSU runs
Joe Jackson
vs
Martell Hughes
RB · KSU
MLB · ASU
81.0
67.7
KSU +13
when KSU throws
Josh Manning
vs
Ashton Stamps
X · KSU
CB1 · ASU
61.3
85.2
ASU +24
over the middle
Garrett Oakley
vs
Rodney Bimage Jr.
TE · KSU
FS · ASU
67.4
70.2
dead even
over the middle
Anthony Miller
vs
Donovan McIntosh
TE · ASU
FS · KSU
51.9
67.2
KSU +15
when ASU runs
Demarius Robinson
vs
Mekhi Mason
RB · ASU
MLB · KSU
47.5
70.3
KSU +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kansas State
SJa'son Prevard
84.650/1427
RBJoe Jackson
81.020/514
CBZashon Rich
81.084/1427
QBAvery Johnson
73.331/308
SKoy Beasley
70.7221/1427
LBMekhi Mason
70.3138/878

also out — Fans Should Look, Kansas State offensive line (OL), Morley (OL), OL starter (OL), Pastore (OL), George Fitzpatrick (OL), John Pastore (OL), Tackle John Pastore +3 more

Arizona State
DBAshton Stamps
85.243/1427
DBJessiah McGrew
78.0115/1427
WROmarion Miller
73.438/777
SAdrian Wilson
73.3172/1427
WRRaiden Vines-Bright
70.951/777
LBMartell Hughes
67.7182/878

also out — key defensive lineman (DL), Nigel Pringle (CB), Z. Fiaseu (LB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kansas State
opponent
Arizona State
home-2.6
Arizona#26
-9.6away
home+4.5
Kansas#50
0.0neutral
away+6.6
Colorado#74
+9.7home
home+17.7
Oklahoma State#97
+15.7home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKASU +0.595% interval: -23.4 to 24.480% interval: -16.9 to 17.9-17+18KSU wins 48%ASU wins 52%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ASU 28–28 KSUASU 25–53 KSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 28–49 KSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesASU 32–46 KSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesASU 35–42 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesASU 39–39 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesASU 42–35 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesASU 46–32 KSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesASU 49–28 KSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesASU 53–25 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 21–49 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 25–46 KSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesASU 28–42 KSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesASU 32–39 KSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesASU 35–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesASU 39–32 KSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesASU 42–28 KSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesASU 46–25 KSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesASU 49–21 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 18–46 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 21–42 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesASU 25–39 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesASU 28–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesASU 32–32 KSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesASU 35–28 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesASU 39–25 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesASU 42–21 KSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesASU 46–18 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 14–42 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 18–39 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesASU 21–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesASU 25–32 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesASU 28–28 KSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesASU 32–25 KSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesASU 35–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesASU 39–18 KSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesASU 42–14 KSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesASU 11–39 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 14–35 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesASU 18–32 KSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesASU 21–28 KSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesASU 25–25 KSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesASU 28–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesASU 32–18 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesASU 35–14 KSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesASU 39–11 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 7–35 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 11–32 KSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesASU 14–28 KSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesASU 18–25 KSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesASU 21–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesASU 25–18 KSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesASU 28–14 KSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesASU 32–11 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesASU 35–7 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 4–32 KSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 7–28 KSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesASU 11–25 KSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesASU 14–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesASU 18–18 KSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesASU 21–14 KSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesASU 25–11 KSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesASU 28–7 KSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesASU 32–4 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalKSU +28KSU +14PKASU +14ASU +28margin →