CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
KSU 55.3%44.7% ASU
Projected margin
KSU by 2.2
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
KSU 21 to ASU 16
Win probability
KSU 55.3%

Current team profiles

Kansas State
Arizona State

When Kansas State has the ball

Passing

KSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
KSU offense
#47
ASU defense
#65
EPA comparison
0.28
#47
0.12
#65
Pass EPA

Rushing

KSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
KSU offense
#9
ASU defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.27
#9
0.07
#84
Rush EPA

Drive success

KSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
KSU offense
#12
ASU defense
#49
Success rates
51%
#12
38%
#49
Success rate
More metrics
0.27
#25
0.09
#87
EPA / play
1.17
#98
1.31
#105
Explosiveness
9%
#6
15%
#90
Havoc

When Arizona State has the ball

Passing

KSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
KSU defense
#60
ASU offense
#84
EPA comparison
0.11
#60
0.16
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

ASU offense
Higher-ranked profile
KSU defense
#93
ASU offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.10
#93
0.06
#88
Rush EPA

Drive success

KSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
KSU defense
#26
ASU offense
#67
Success rates
35%
#26
44%
#67
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#80
0.07
#98
EPA / play
1.44
#134
1.21
#86
Explosiveness
20%
#21
16%
#88
Havoc

Current key players

Kansas State
QBJacob Knuth
7 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
78.089/729
LBJacobi Oliphant Jr.
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.2
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
90.59/1796
LBAshton Moore
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.4
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
83.256/1796
RBJay Harris
88 yds · 3 TD · 6.3 YPC
80.374/1044
SAdrian Maddox
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.2
Coverage
74.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
77.0125/2969
CBMicheal Graham Jr.
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.7
Coverage
60.0
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
75.5177/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Will Anciaux · TEout · 2026-10-05

    Anciaux is nursing with a lower leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • John Pastore · OGout · 2026-08-21

    Pastore has been shut down for the remainder of the season with a lower leg injury.

  • Jacob Knuth · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Knuth is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Blake Barnett · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Barnett is bothered by a lower body injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Arley Morrell · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Morrell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Dillon Duff · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Duff is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Max Lovett · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lovett id dealing with an arm injury and it is unclear if he will play against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

Arizona State
QBCutter Boley
1040 yds · 10 TD · 3 INT
78.286/729
WRReed Harris
26 rec · 499 yds · 5 TD
88.012/2069
LBIsaiah Iosefa
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.8
Coverage
71.1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.361/1796
RBDemarius Robinson
27 yds · 0 TD · 6.8 YPC
80.571/1044
DBCaleb Chester
9 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.0
Coverage
77.8
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
34
Passer rating allowed
86.9
Missed tackles
1
79.176/2969
DBLyrik Rawls
11 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.5
Coverage
79.6
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
87
Passer rating allowed
95.4
Missed tackles
2
75.9162/2969
Availability reports · 6
  • Lyrik Rawls · CBout · 2026-10-07

    Rawls is managing with a leg injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Khamari Anderson · TEout · 2026-09-21

    Anderson is sidelined with a leg injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Wade Helton · OGout · 2026-09-18

    Helton is sidelined with a leg injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Zyrus Fiaseu · LBout · 2026-08-25

    Fiaseu is sidelined with a knee injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Grayson Rigdon · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rigdon is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Raiders on Saturday, October

  • Harry Hassmann · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hassmann is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Raiders on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

KSU
ASU
vs
Offense
78.0
#69 of 138
QB
78.2
#67 of 138
76.9
#55 of 138
RB
78.6
#43 of 138
67.5
#115 of 138
WR
72.8
#51 of 138
70.9
#57 of 138
TE
60.5
#114 of 138
80.3
#4 of 138
OL
70.2
#52 of 138
Defense
73.0
#72 of 138
DL
76.2
#44 of 138
83.5
#9 of 138
LB
72.0
#88 of 138
71.4
#78 of 138
DB
73.3
#53 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Kansas State
opponent
Arizona State
H-1.5
ARIZ#25
-11.7A
H+12.3
OKST#52
+7.4H
H+9.7
KU#31
+7.0N
A+9.2
COLO#84
+9.6H