AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#44Away
Kansas State
0-0 · AVR 57.1
28p
#56Home
Iowa State
0-0 · AVR 53.3
27p
KSU 51%49% ISU
Spread
KSU -0.3
Total
55
Moneyline
KSU-104ISU+104
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KSU advantageevenISU advantage →
KSU throw
KSU protection #103
ISU +22
KSU run
KSU line #103KSU backs #16
even
ISU throw
ISU protection #117
KSU +32
ISU run
KSU +43

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ISU throws
Omari Hayes
vs
Ja'son Prevard
X · ISU
CB1 · KSU
63.8
84.6
KSU +21
when KSU throws
Josh Manning
vs
Braden Awls
X · KSU
CB1 · ISU
61.3
85.6
ISU +24
over the middle
Garrett Oakley
vs
Malcolm Jones
TE · KSU
FS · ISU
67.4
70.2
dead even
off the edge· hunting Johnson
Tanner Morley
vs
Isaac Terrell
LT · KSU
EDGE · ISU
32.9
100.1
ISU +67
when KSU runs
Joe Jackson
vs
Sullivan Schlimgen
RB · KSU
MLB · ISU
81.0
46.9
KSU +34
when ISU runs
Arnold Barnes III
vs
Mekhi Mason
RB · ISU
MLB · KSU
50.9
70.3
KSU +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kansas State
SJa'son Prevard
84.650/1427
RBJoe Jackson
81.020/514
CBZashon Rich
81.084/1427
QBAvery Johnson
73.331/308
SKoy Beasley
70.7221/1427
LBMekhi Mason
70.3138/878

also out — Fans Should Look, Kansas State offensive line (OL), Morley (OL), OL starter (OL), Pastore (OL), George Fitzpatrick (OL), John Pastore (OL), Tackle John Pastore +3 more

Iowa State
SBraden Awls
85.639/1427
CBBeni Ngoyi
81.376/1427
SDrew Surges
75.9142/1427
WROmari Hayes
63.890/777
QBJaylen Raynorprobable
60.367/308
RBArnold Barnes III
50.9267/514

also out — Matt Campbell

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kansas State
opponent
Iowa State
home-2.6
Arizona#26
-10.4away
home+17.7
Oklahoma State#97
+14.9home
away+0.8
Cincinnati#51
+2.9home

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKSU +0.395% interval: -24.9 to 24.380% interval: -18.2 to 17.6-18+18KSU wins 51%ISU wins 49%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ISU 28–28 KSUISU 25–53 KSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 28–49 KSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesISU 32–46 KSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesISU 35–42 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 39–39 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 42–35 KSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 46–32 KSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesISU 49–28 KSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 53–25 KSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 21–49 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 25–46 KSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesISU 28–42 KSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 32–39 KSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesISU 35–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesISU 39–32 KSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesISU 42–28 KSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 46–25 KSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesISU 49–21 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 18–46 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 21–42 KSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 25–39 KSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 28–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesISU 32–32 KSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesISU 35–28 KSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesISU 39–25 KSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 42–21 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesISU 46–18 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 14–42 KSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesISU 18–39 KSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 21–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesISU 25–32 KSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesISU 28–28 KSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesISU 32–25 KSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesISU 35–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 39–18 KSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 42–14 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 11–39 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 14–35 KSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 18–32 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 21–28 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesISU 25–25 KSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesISU 28–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesISU 32–18 KSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 35–14 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesISU 39–11 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 7–35 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 11–32 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesISU 14–28 KSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 18–25 KSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesISU 21–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesISU 25–18 KSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesISU 28–14 KSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 32–11 KSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesISU 35–7 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 4–32 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 7–28 KSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesISU 11–25 KSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 14–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 18–18 KSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesISU 21–14 KSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 25–11 KSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesISU 28–7 KSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesISU 32–4 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalKSU +28KSU +14PKISU +14ISU +28margin →