CFB
Model
All rankings
Big 12

Iowa State

Cyclones3-312th in Big 12
Jack Trice Stadium · Ames, IA · 61,500
TeamShort on both sides
OffenseBoom-or-bust · averageweak point: avoiding disruption, 121st
DefenseAverage defenseweak point: big plays allowed, 86th

The season

Best win
W 45-42 vs #86 West Virginia
Wk 5 · Oct 3 · model had 78%
Worst loss
L 13-16 @ #20 Iowa
Wk 2 · Sep 12 · model had 18%

Schedule

model 6/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    vsSoutheast Missouri State
    W 38–10
    Win chance >99%Model margin +39.5Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    atIowa
    L 13–16
    Win chance 18%Model margin -12.5Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsBowling Green
    W 55–7
    Win chance 98%Model margin +29.1Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsUtah
    L 17–31
    Win chance 35%Model margin -5.2Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsWest Virginia
    W 45–42
    Win chance 78%Model margin +10.6Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 9
    atBYU
    L 10–24
    Win chance 27%Model margin -8.2Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atArizona
    Win chance 30%Model margin -7.1Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsOklahoma State
    Win chance 81%Model margin +12.0Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atBaylor
    Win chance 46%Model margin -1.2Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsCincinnati
    Win chance 65%Model margin +5.3Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 20
    atUCF
    Win chance 52%Model margin +0.8Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    vsKansas State
    Win chance 57%Model margin +2.4Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
47
#79 of 138
Defense efficiency
45
#74 of 138
Efficiency
#790.13
EPA / play
#750.07
#820.17
Pass
#790.17
#630.12
Rush
#630.03
#11139%
Success
#7340%
Big plays & havoc
#311.30
Explosive
#861.25
#12118%
Havoc
#7915%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB124th
RB25th
WR63rd
TE124th
OL51st
DL22nd
LB77th
DB19th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Connor MoberlySO
20 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
63.4
234th QB
RB
Aiden FloraSO
594 yds · 6 TD · 8.1 YPC
91.0
4th RB
WR
Dominic OverbySO
10 rec · 212 yds · 1 TD
74.6
133rd WR
WR
Carson RobbinsSO
1 rec · 11 yds · 0 TD
71.5
216th WR
TE
Carson EdneyFR
— rec · — yds · — TD
59.6
296th TE
Defense
LB
Tristan ExlineSR
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
79.5
90th LB
LB
Beau GoodwinJR
13 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
72.8
267th LB
CB
Beni NgoyiJR
7 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
82.5
40th DB
CB
David CoffeySO
13 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
79.8
66th DB
S
Drew SurgesJR
13 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
74.8
202nd DB

Injury report

2 out
out
Carter PabstWR

Pabst is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

50.810-03
out
Jordyn BaileyWR

Bailey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear when he will return.

46.2202509-01
Ques.
Dominic OverbyWR

Overby is dealing with an Knee injury, and it is unknown if he will face the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

74.610-11
Ques.
Caden CrawfordDL

Crawford is hampered due to an undisclosed injury , and it is unclear if he will play against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

73.010-10
Ques.
Jaheim SingletaryCB

Singletary is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

59.010-10
Ques.
Rylan BarnesTE

Barnes is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

59.010-10
Ques.
Easton MillerRB

Miller is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

55.310-10
Ques.
Luke GalerTE

Galer is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

50.510-10

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atArizona
    Playoff chance if win
    1.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.2%
  2. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsOklahoma State
    Playoff chance if win
    0.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  3. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atBaylor
    Playoff chance if win
    1.0%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsCincinnati
    Playoff chance if win
    0.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 20
    atUCF
    Playoff chance if win
    1.0%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 28
    vsKansas State
    Playoff chance if win
    0.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%

Past seasons

Year by year
+4.6 points since 2022
506070809066.2202267.8202371.9202470.82025
2022 66.22023 67.82024 71.92025 70.8

2025

8-4
D-I rank
#29
Rating
70.8
Listed games · 12
WWWWWLLLLWWW
329 pts scored242 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Kansas StateW 24–21
  2. W1 vs South DakotaW 55–7
  3. W2 vs IowaW 16–13
  4. W3 at Arkansas StateW 24–16
  5. W5 vs ArizonaW 39–14
  6. W6 at CincinnatiL 30–38
  7. W7 at ColoradoL 17–24
  8. W9 vs BYUL 27–41
  9. W10 vs Arizona StateL 19–24
  10. W11 at TCUW 20–17
  11. W13 vs KansasW 38–14
  12. W14 at Oklahoma StateW 20–13

2024

10-3
D-I rank
#24
Rating
71.9
Listed games · 13
WWWWWWWLLWWWL
393 pts scored280 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs North DakotaW 21–3
  2. W2 at IowaW 20–19
  3. W4 vs Arkansas StateW 52–7
  4. W5 at HoustonW 20–0
  5. W6 vs BaylorW 43–21
  6. W7 at West VirginiaW 28–16
  7. W8 vs UCFW 38–35
  8. W10 vs Texas TechL 22–23
  9. W11 vs KansasL 36–45
  10. W12 vs CincinnatiW 34–17
  11. W13 at UtahW 31–28
  12. W14 vs Kansas StateW 29–21
  13. W15 vs Arizona StateL 19–45

2023

7-5
D-I rank
#32
Rating
67.8
Listed games · 12
WLLWLWWWLWLW
315 pts scored260 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Northern IowaW 30–9
  2. W2 vs IowaL 13–20
  3. W3 at OhioL 7–10
  4. W4 vs Oklahoma StateW 34–27
  5. W5 at OklahomaL 20–50
  6. W6 vs TCUW 27–14
  7. W7 at CincinnatiW 30–10
  8. W9 at BaylorW 30–18
  9. W10 vs KansasL 21–28
  10. W11 at BYUW 45–13
  11. W12 vs TexasL 16–26
  12. W13 at Kansas StateW 42–35

2022

4-8
D-I rank
#43
Rating
66.2
Listed games · 12
WWWLLLLLWLLL
242 pts scored243 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Southeast Missouri StateW 42–10
  2. W2 at IowaW 10–7
  3. W3 vs OhioW 43–10
  4. W4 vs BaylorL 24–31
  5. W5 at KansasL 11–14
  6. W6 vs Kansas StateL 9–10
  7. W7 at TexasL 21–24
  8. W9 vs OklahomaL 13–27
  9. W10 vs West VirginiaW 31–14
  10. W11 at Oklahoma StateL 14–20
  11. W12 vs Texas TechL 10–14
  12. W13 at TCUL 14–62