AVRCFB Model
All rankings
Big 12

Iowa State

Cyclones0-013th in Big 12
Jack Trice Stadium · Ames, IA · 61,500
Rank —
56
Rating
53.3
TeamWeak roster
OffenseUnprovenweak point: offensive line, 117th
DefenseExperienced secondaryweak point: linebacker, 135th

The season ahead

12 games scheduled

Schedule

12 games
WkOpponentWin probDateProjectedGame page
1
vsSoutheast Missouri State
100%
Sep 545-9p›
2
at#22IowaCy-Hawk Trophy
17%
Sep 1219-32p›
3
vs#114Bowling Green
89%
Sep 1934-18p›
4
vs#16Utah
21%
Sep 2621-32p›
5
vs#66West Virginia
70%
Oct 330-23p›
6
at#19BYU
16%
Oct 1020-34p›
8
at#26Arizona
22%
Oct 2422-32p›
9
vs#97Oklahoma State
87%
Oct 3135-20p›
10
at#42Baylor
36%
Nov 727-31p›
11
vs#51Cincinnati
59%
Nov 1429-26p›
12
at#52UCF
47%
Nov 2026-27p›
13
vs#44Kansas State
49%
Nov 2827-28p›

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Personnel
#10264
Talent
#9662
Position groups2025 player ratings
QB64th
RB109th
WR71st
TE79th
OL117th
DL17th
LB135th
DB29th

Starting eleven

11 personnel
11 of 11 named8 ratedavg 44.42025 ratings
X63.8
O. Hayes
WR · SR90th
LT20.5
J. Taylor
OL · JR267th
LG13.8
G. Broscious
OL · JR285th
C—
B. Smith
OL · SO
RG—
C. Maas
OL · JR
RT—
C. Amick
OL · SO
TE49.9
T. Fortenberry
TE · SR132nd
SL45.7
C. Pabst
WR · SO442nd
Z49.9
D. Overby
WR · SO313th
QB60.3
J. Raynor
QB · SR67th
RB50.9
A. Barnes
RB · SR267th

Roster

Core lineup

2025 ratings
Offense
QB
Jaylen RaynorSR
60.3
67th QB
RB
Arnold Barnes IIISR
50.9
267th RB
WR
Omari HayesSR
63.8
90th WR
WR
Dominic OverbySO
49.9
313th WR
TE
Tyler FortenberrySR
49.9
132nd TE
Defense
LB
Sullivan SchlimgenSO
46.9
548th LB
LB
Connor WelschSO
46.1
565th LB
S
Braden AwlsSR
85.6
39th DB
CB
Beni NgoyiJR
81.3
76th DB
S
Drew SurgesJR
75.9
142nd DB

Injury report

1 out · 1 starters
out
Matt Campbell
08-19
questionable
R. PeppersRB
08-11
probable
Talented FreshmanTE
08-06
probable
Dylan BarrettOL
08-14
probable
Jaylen RaynorQBstarter
08-25

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

0%–2% playoff odds, on these results

Ranked by how far the result is likely to move their playoff odds. A close game against a good team moves more than a near-certain win, even when losing that one would hurt more.

W4
vs#16Utah
0% lose2% win
±0.4
likely move
in odds
23% to win
W6
at#19BYU
0% lose2% win
±0.3
likely move
in odds
17% to win
W8
at#26Arizona
0% lose2% win
±0.3
likely move
in odds
25% to win
W13
vs#44Kansas State
0% lose1% win
±0.3
likely move
in odds
49% to win
W10
at#42Baylor
0% lose1% win
±0.3
likely move
in odds
37% to win
W12
at#52UCF
0% lose1% win
±0.3
likely move
in odds
48% to win
W11
vs#51Cincinnati
0% lose1% win
±0.2
likely move
in odds
57% to win
W5
vs#66West Virginia
0% lose1% win
±0.2
likely move
in odds
68% to win