AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 2:15 AM
#56Away
Iowa State
0-0 · AVR 53.3
20p
#19Home
BYU
0-0 · AVR 69.1
34p
ISU 17%83% BYU
Spread
BYU -13.7
Total
53
Moneyline
ISU+483BYU-483
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ISU advantageevenBYU advantage →
ISU throw
ISU protection #117
BYU +28
ISU run
BYU +51
BYU throw
BYU WR #81
ISU +6
BYU run
ISU front #17ISU linebackers #135
BYU +32

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bachmeier
Bruce Mitchell
vs
Isaac Terrell
LT · BYU
EDGE · ISU
88.8
100.1
ISU +11
when ISU throws
Omari Hayes
vs
Evan Johnson
X · ISU
CB1 · BYU
63.8
85.7
BYU +22
over the middle
Walker Lyons
vs
Malcolm Jones
TE · BYU
FS · ISU
68.0
70.2
dead even
when BYU throws
Reggie Frischknecht
vs
Braden Awls
X · BYU
CB1 · ISU
52.0
85.6
ISU +34
when ISU runs
Arnold Barnes III
vs
Isaiah Glasker
RB · ISU
MLB · BYU
50.9
84.3
BYU +33
when BYU runs
LJ Martin
vs
Sullivan Schlimgen
RB · BYU
MLB · ISU
84.9
46.9
BYU +38

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Iowa State
SBraden Awls
85.639/1427
CBBeni Ngoyi
81.376/1427
SDrew Surges
75.9142/1427
WROmari Hayes
63.890/777
QBJaylen Raynorprobable
60.367/308
RBArnold Barnes III
50.9267/514

also out — Matt Campbell

BYU
QBBear Bachmeier
96.72/308
CBEvan Johnson
85.737/1427
SFaletau Satualaprobable
85.640/1427
RBLJ Martin
84.96/514
LBIsaiah Glasker
84.325/878
CBTherrian Alexander III
79.792/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Iowa State
opponent
BYU
away-10.4
Arizona#26
+5.8home
away-4.7
Baylor#42
+11.4home
home+2.9
Cincinnati#51
+14.1home
away-0.9
UCF#52
+10.2away
home-10.7
Utah#16
-4.5away

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 31
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBYU +13.795% interval: -10.2 to 37.680% interval: -3.7 to 31.1-4+31ISU wins 17%BYU wins 83%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BYU 35–21 ISUBYU 32–46 ISU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBYU 35–42 ISU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBYU 39–39 ISU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBYU 42–35 ISU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBYU 46–32 ISU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 49–28 ISU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBYU 53–25 ISU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 56–21 ISU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBYU 60–18 ISU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBYU 28–42 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 32–39 ISU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBYU 35–35 ISU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBYU 39–32 ISU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBYU 42–28 ISU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBYU 46–25 ISU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBYU 49–21 ISU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBYU 53–18 ISU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBYU 56–14 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 25–39 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 28–35 ISU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 32–32 ISU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 35–28 ISU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBYU 39–25 ISU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBYU 42–21 ISU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBYU 46–18 ISU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 49–14 ISU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 53–11 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 21–35 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 25–32 ISU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 28–28 ISU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBYU 32–25 ISU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBYU 35–21 ISU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBYU 39–18 ISU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBYU 42–14 ISU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBYU 46–11 ISU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 49–7 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 18–32 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 21–28 ISU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 25–25 ISU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBYU 28–21 ISU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBYU 32–18 ISU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBYU 35–14 ISU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 39–11 ISU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBYU 42–7 ISU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 46–4 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 14–28 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 18–25 ISU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 21–21 ISU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 25–18 ISU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBYU 28–14 ISU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBYU 32–11 ISU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBYU 35–7 ISU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 39–4 ISU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 42–0 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 11–25 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 14–21 ISU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBYU 18–18 ISU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBYU 21–14 ISU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBYU 25–11 ISU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBYU 28–7 ISU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBYU 32–4 ISU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBYU 35–0 ISU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalISU +14PKBYU +14BYU +28BYU +42margin →