AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#51Away
Cincinnati
0-0 · AVR 54.8
26p
#56Home
Iowa State
0-0 · AVR 53.3
29p
CIN 43%57% ISU
Spread
ISU -2.9
Total
55
Moneyline
CIN+135ISU-135
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CIN advantageevenISU advantage →
CIN throw
CIN protection #3
ISU +13
CIN run
CIN backs #64ISU front #17
CIN +25
ISU throw
ISU protection #117CIN coverage #55
ISU +6
ISU run
CIN linebackers #76
CIN +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting IV
Evan Tengesdahl
vs
Isaac Terrell
LT · CIN
EDGE · ISU
97.1
100.1
ISU +3
when CIN throws
Isaiah Johnson
vs
Braden Awls
X · CIN
CB1 · ISU
64.7
85.6
ISU +21
when ISU throws
Omari Hayes
vs
Ty Goodwill
X · ISU
CB1 · CIN
63.8
76.9
CIN +13
over the middle
Gavin Grover
vs
Malcolm Jones
TE · CIN
FS · ISU
61.5
70.2
ISU +9
when ISU runs
Arnold Barnes III
vs
Jonathan Thompson
RB · ISU
MLB · CIN
50.9
72.1
CIN +21
over the middle
Tyler Fortenberry
vs
Antwan Peek Jr.
TE · ISU
FS · CIN
49.9
65.6
CIN +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Cincinnati
STy Goodwill
76.9128/1427
DBMJ Cannon
74.9156/1427
LBJonathan Thompson
72.1122/878
SJasper Beeler
67.8287/1427
QBJC French IV
67.449/308
WRIsaiah Johnson
64.785/777
Iowa State
SBraden Awls
85.639/1427
CBBeni Ngoyi
81.376/1427
SDrew Surges
75.9142/1427
WROmari Hayes
63.890/777
QBJaylen Raynorprobable
60.367/308
RBArnold Barnes III
50.9267/514

also out — Matt Campbell

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Cincinnati
opponent
Iowa State
away+1.5
West Virginia#66
+6.9home
home-0.8
Kansas State#44
-0.3home
away-10.9
Arizona#26
-10.4away
home-11.2
Utah#16
-10.7home
away-14.1
BYU#19
-13.7away

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKISU +2.995% interval: -21 to 26.880% interval: -14.4 to 20.3-14+20CIN wins 43%ISU wins 57%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ISU 28–28 CINISU 25–53 CIN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesISU 28–49 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 32–46 CIN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesISU 35–42 CIN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 39–39 CIN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 42–35 CIN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 46–32 CIN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 49–28 CIN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesISU 53–25 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 21–49 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 25–46 CIN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 28–42 CIN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesISU 32–39 CIN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 35–35 CIN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesISU 39–32 CIN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesISU 42–28 CIN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 46–25 CIN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesISU 49–21 CIN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesISU 18–46 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 21–42 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesISU 25–39 CIN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 28–35 CIN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesISU 32–32 CIN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesISU 35–28 CIN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesISU 39–25 CIN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesISU 42–21 CIN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 46–18 CIN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 14–42 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 18–39 CIN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesISU 21–35 CIN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 25–32 CIN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesISU 28–28 CIN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesISU 32–25 CIN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesISU 35–21 CIN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesISU 39–18 CIN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 42–14 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesISU 11–39 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 14–35 CIN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesISU 18–32 CIN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 21–28 CIN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesISU 25–25 CIN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesISU 28–21 CIN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesISU 32–18 CIN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesISU 35–14 CIN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 39–11 CIN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 7–35 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 11–32 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesISU 14–28 CIN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 18–25 CIN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesISU 21–21 CIN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesISU 25–18 CIN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesISU 28–14 CIN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesISU 32–11 CIN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesISU 35–7 CIN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 4–32 CIN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesISU 7–28 CIN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesISU 11–25 CIN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 14–21 CIN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 18–18 CIN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesISU 21–14 CIN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesISU 25–11 CIN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 28–7 CIN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesISU 32–4 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalCIN +28CIN +14PKISU +14ISU +28margin →