AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#66Away
West Virginia
0-0 · AVR 50.2
23p
#56Home
Iowa State
0-0 · AVR 53.3
30p
WVU 32%68% ISU
Spread
ISU -6.9
Total
54
Moneyline
WVU+216ISU-216
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WVU advantageevenISU advantage →
WVU throw
ISU +39
WVU run
WVU line #79WVU backs #2
WVU +11
ISU throw
ISU protection #117WVU coverage #117
WVU +7
ISU run
WVU +57

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Cam Griffin
vs
Isaac Terrell
LT · WVU
EDGE · ISU
63.6
100.1
ISU +36
when WVU throws
John Neider
vs
Braden Awls
X · WVU
CB1 · ISU
66.6
85.6
ISU +19
when ISU throws
Omari Hayes
vs
Kamari Wilson
X · ISU
CB1 · WVU
63.8
71.8
WVU +8
when WVU runs
Cam Cook
vs
Sullivan Schlimgen
RB · WVU
MLB · ISU
82.0
46.9
WVU +35
when ISU runs
Arnold Barnes III
vs
Ben Cutter
RB · ISU
MLB · WVU
50.9
75.6
WVU +25
over the middle
Josh Sapp
vs
Malcolm Jones
TE · WVU
FS · ISU
45.8
70.2
ISU +24

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
West Virginia
RBCam Cook
82.017/514
LBBen Cutter
75.6100/878
SKamari Wilson
71.8194/1427
WRJohn Neider
66.675/777
LBMalachi Hood
64.6220/878
QBScotty Fox Jr.
54.898/308

also out — Landon Drum (WR), Lawrence Autry (RB)

Iowa State
SBraden Awls
85.639/1427
CBBeni Ngoyi
81.376/1427
SDrew Surges
75.9142/1427
WROmari Hayes
63.890/777
QBJaylen Raynorprobable
60.367/308
RBArnold Barnes III
50.9267/514

also out — Matt Campbell

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
West Virginia
opponent
Iowa State
away-20.2
Utah#16
-10.7home
home+10.4
Oklahoma State#97
+14.9home
home-1.5
Cincinnati#51
+2.9home
home-9.9
Arizona#26
-10.4away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKISU +6.995% interval: -17 to 30.880% interval: -10.4 to 24.3-10+24WVU wins 32%ISU wins 68%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ISU 32–25 WVUISU 28–49 WVU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 32–46 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 35–42 WVU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesISU 39–39 WVU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 42–35 WVU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 46–32 WVU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 49–28 WVU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 53–25 WVU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 56–21 WVU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 25–46 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 28–42 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesISU 32–39 WVU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 35–35 WVU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesISU 39–32 WVU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesISU 42–28 WVU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesISU 46–25 WVU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 49–21 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesISU 53–18 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 21–42 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 25–39 WVU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesISU 28–35 WVU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 32–32 WVU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesISU 35–28 WVU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesISU 39–25 WVU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesISU 42–21 WVU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 46–18 WVU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesISU 49–14 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 18–39 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 21–35 WVU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 25–32 WVU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 28–28 WVU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesISU 32–25 WVU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesISU 35–21 WVU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesISU 39–18 WVU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 42–14 WVU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 46–11 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 14–35 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 18–32 WVU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 21–28 WVU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 25–25 WVU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesISU 28–21 WVU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesISU 32–18 WVU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesISU 35–14 WVU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 39–11 WVU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 42–7 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 11–32 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 14–28 WVU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesISU 18–25 WVU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 21–21 WVU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesISU 25–18 WVU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesISU 28–14 WVU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesISU 32–11 WVU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 35–7 WVU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesISU 39–4 WVU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 7–28 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 11–25 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesISU 14–21 WVU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 18–18 WVU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesISU 21–14 WVU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesISU 25–11 WVU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 28–7 WVU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 32–4 WVU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesISU 35–0 WVU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalWVU +21WVU +7ISU +7ISU +21ISU +35margin →