AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#56Away
Iowa State
0-0 · AVR 53.3
22p
#26Home
Arizona
0-0 · AVR 66.2
32p
ISU 25%75% ARIZ
Spread
ARIZ -10.4
Total
54
Moneyline
ISU+308ARIZ-308
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ISU advantageevenARIZ advantage →
ISU throw
ISU protection #117ARIZ coverage #5
ARIZ +26
ISU run
ARIZ front #91ARIZ linebackers #5
ARIZ +49
ARIZ throw
ISU +19
ARIZ run
ISU front #17ISU linebackers #135
ARIZ +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Fifita
Tristan Bounds
vs
Isaac Terrell
LT · ARIZ
EDGE · ISU
76.2
100.1
ISU +24
when ISU throws
Omari Hayes
vs
Jay'Vion Cole
X · ISU
CB1 · ARIZ
63.8
101.6
ARIZ +38
over the middle
Cole Rusk
vs
Malcolm Jones
TE · ARIZ
FS · ISU
69.2
70.2
dead even
when ARIZ throws
Giovanni Richardson
vs
Braden Awls
X · ARIZ
CB1 · ISU
52.5
85.6
ISU +33
when ISU runs
Arnold Barnes III
vs
Chase Kennedy
RB · ISU
MLB · ARIZ
50.9
84.0
ARIZ +33
over the middle
Tyler Fortenberry
vs
Johno Price
TE · ISU
FS · ARIZ
49.9
75.7
ARIZ +26

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Iowa State
SBraden Awls
85.639/1427
CBBeni Ngoyi
81.376/1427
SDrew Surges
75.9142/1427
WROmari Hayes
63.890/777
QBJaylen Raynorprobable
60.367/308
RBArnold Barnes III
50.9267/514

also out — Matt Campbell

Arizona
CBJay'Vion Cole
101.62/1427
LBChase Kennedy
84.026/878
LBEverett Roussaw Jr.
84.027/878
SGavin Hunter
83.362/1427
SDaylen Austin
75.9141/1427
TECole Rusk
69.212/287

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Iowa State
opponent
Arizona
home+2.9
Cincinnati#51
+10.9home
home-10.7
Utah#16
-2.8home
away-13.7
BYU#19
-5.8away
home+6.9
West Virginia#66
+9.9away
home-0.3
Kansas State#44
+2.6away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARIZ +10.495% interval: -13.5 to 34.380% interval: -7 to 27.8-7+28ISU wins 25%ARIZ wins 75%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARIZ 32–25 ISUARIZ 28–49 ISU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesARIZ 32–46 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARIZ 35–42 ISU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARIZ 39–39 ISU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 42–35 ISU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARIZ 46–32 ISU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARIZ 49–28 ISU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 53–25 ISU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARIZ 56–21 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARIZ 25–46 ISU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 28–42 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 32–39 ISU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARIZ 35–35 ISU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARIZ 39–32 ISU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARIZ 42–28 ISU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARIZ 46–25 ISU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARIZ 49–21 ISU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARIZ 53–18 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 21–42 ISU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 25–39 ISU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 28–35 ISU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 32–32 ISU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARIZ 35–28 ISU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARIZ 39–25 ISU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARIZ 42–21 ISU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARIZ 46–18 ISU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 49–14 ISU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 18–39 ISU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 21–35 ISU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 25–32 ISU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 28–28 ISU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARIZ 32–25 ISU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARIZ 35–21 ISU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARIZ 39–18 ISU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARIZ 42–14 ISU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARIZ 46–11 ISU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 14–35 ISU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 18–32 ISU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 21–28 ISU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARIZ 25–25 ISU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARIZ 28–21 ISU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARIZ 32–18 ISU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARIZ 35–14 ISU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARIZ 39–11 ISU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARIZ 42–7 ISU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 11–32 ISU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 14–28 ISU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 18–25 ISU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 21–21 ISU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARIZ 25–18 ISU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARIZ 28–14 ISU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARIZ 32–11 ISU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARIZ 35–7 ISU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARIZ 39–4 ISU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 7–28 ISU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesARIZ 11–25 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 14–21 ISU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARIZ 18–18 ISU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARIZ 21–14 ISU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARIZ 25–11 ISU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARIZ 28–7 ISU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARIZ 32–4 ISU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARIZ 35–0 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes77706356494235totalISU +21ISU +7ARIZ +7ARIZ +21ARIZ +35margin →