CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
ISU 32.8%67.2% ARIZ
Projected margin
ARIZ by 7.1
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
ISU 12 to ARIZ 26
Win probability
ARIZ 67.2%

Current team profiles

Iowa State
Arizona

When Iowa State has the ball

Passing

ARIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
ISU offense
#82
ARIZ defense
#17
EPA comparison
0.17
#82
-0.01
#17
Pass EPA

Rushing

ARIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
ISU offense
#63
ARIZ defense
#47
EPA comparison
0.12
#63
0.00
#47
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
ISU offense
#111
ARIZ defense
#27
Success rates
39%
#111
35%
#27
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#79
-0.04
#28
EPA / play
1.30
#31
1.42
#131
Explosiveness
18%
#121
16%
#63
Havoc

When Arizona has the ball

Passing

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
ISU defense
#79
ARIZ offense
#28
EPA comparison
0.17
#79
0.39
#28
Pass EPA

Rushing

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
ISU defense
#63
ARIZ offense
#61
EPA comparison
0.03
#63
0.13
#61
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
ISU defense
#73
ARIZ offense
#21
Success rates
40%
#73
49%
#21
Success rate
More metrics
0.07
#75
0.24
#32
EPA / play
1.25
#86
1.22
#77
Explosiveness
15%
#79
14%
#52
Havoc

Current key players

Iowa State
QBConnor Moberly
20 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
63.4234/729
RBAiden Flora
594 yds · 6 TD · 8.1 YPC
91.04/1044
CBBeni Ngoyi
7 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.7
Coverage
81.0
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
90
Passer rating allowed
62.2
Missed tackles
1
82.540/2969
CBDavid Coffey
13 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
65.9
Coverage
80.9
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
51
Passer rating allowed
59.3
Missed tackles
3
79.866/2969
LBTristan Exline
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.7
Coverage
63.1
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
79.590/1796
SDrew Surges
13 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.5
Coverage
76.1
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
50
Passer rating allowed
101.4
Missed tackles
4
74.8202/2969
Availability reports · 8
  • Carter Pabst · WRout · 2026-10-03

    Pabst is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Jordyn Bailey · WRout · 2026-09-01

    Bailey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear when he will return.

  • Dominic Overby · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Overby is dealing with an Knee injury, and it is unknown if he will face the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Caden Crawford · DLQues. · 2026-10-10

    Crawford is hampered due to an undisclosed injury , and it is unclear if he will play against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Jaheim Singletary · CBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Singletary is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Rylan Barnes · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Barnes is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Easton Miller · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Miller is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Luke Galer · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Galer is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

Arizona
QBNoah Fifita
1398 yds · 13 TD · 3 INT
83.452/729
LBDash Fifita
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
56.6
Coverage
71.5
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
22
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
84.743/1796
CBJay'Vion Cole
17 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.0
Coverage
76.6
Targets allowed
27
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
105
Passer rating allowed
73.8
Missed tackles
2
78.390/2969
WRGiovanni Richardson
15 rec · 170 yds · 0 TD
77.089/2069
WRTre Spivey
22 rec · 314 yds · 4 TD
76.1107/2069
RBIsmail Mahdi
72 yds · 0 TD · 6.0 YPC
74.7180/1044
Availability reports · 7
  • Tre Spivey · WRout · 2026-10-04

    Spivey has been out of commission due to ankle injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Daylen Austin · Sout · 2026-09-25

    Austin has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Giovanni Richardson · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Richardson is managing with an hamstring injury, and it is undetermined if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cole Rusk · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Rusk is laid up with an lower leg injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cornelius Warren III · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Warren III is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Max Harris · LBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Harris is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Scotty Brennan · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Brennan is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ISU
ARIZ
vs
Offense
63.4
#124 of 138
QB
83.4
#46 of 138
81.6
#25 of 138
RB
74.2
#80 of 138
72.0
#63 of 138
WR
74.4
#39 of 138
59.6
#124 of 138
TE
63.4
#101 of 138
70.2
#51 of 138
OL
75.2
#17 of 138
Defense
78.3
#22 of 138
DL
72.0
#86 of 138
73.3
#77 of 138
LB
74.8
#61 of 138
76.8
#19 of 138
DB
70.9
#84 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Iowa State
opponent
Arizona
H+5.3
CIN#59
+27.0H
H+3.0
WVU#86
+21.0A
H-14.0
UTAH#9
-5.0H
A-14.0
BYU#18
-11.0A
H+2.4
KSU#37
+1.5A