CFB
Model
All rankings
Big 12

UCF

Knights3-310th in Big 12
FBC Mortgage Stadium · Orlando, FL · 44,206
TeamShort on both sides
OffenseBoom-or-bust · averageweak point: staying on schedule, 94th
DefenseStout against the run · solidweak point: generating pressure, 84th

The season

Best win
W 21-13 vs #36 TCU
Wk 4 · Sep 26 · model had 63%
Worst loss
L 28-42 @ #52 Oklahoma State
Wk 6 · Oct 10 · lost as a 51% favorite

Schedule

model 5/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 3
    vsBethune-Cookman
    W 73–6
    Win chance >99%Model margin +36.7Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    atPittsburgh
    L 7–12
    Win chance 29%Model margin -7.4Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsGeorgia State
    W 44–30
    Win chance 95%Model margin +22.0Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsTCU
    W 21–13
    Win chance 63%Model margin +4.4Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    atHouston
    L 17–27
    Win chance 28%Model margin -7.8Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 10
    atOklahoma State
    L 28–42
    Win chance 51%Model margin +0.5Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsBYU
    Win chance 32%Model margin -6.5Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 30
    vsBaylor
    Win chance 52%Model margin +0.6Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atKansas
    Win chance 52%Model margin +0.7Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsArizona State
    Win chance 61%Model margin +3.8Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 20
    vsIowa State
    Win chance 48%Model margin -0.8Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atColorado
    Win chance 66%Model margin +5.4Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
50
#70 of 138
Defense efficiency
53
#61 of 138
Efficiency
#800.12
EPA / play
#410.00
#840.16
Pass
#680.13
#720.10
Rush
#22-0.09
#9441%
Success
#6740%
Big plays & havoc
#331.29
Explosive
#221.10
#6915%
Havoc
#8415%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB66th
RB63rd
WR98th
TE64th
OL54th
DL23rd
LB92nd
DB36th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Rocco MarriottFR
— yds · — TD · — INT
78.3
85th QB
RB
Agyeman AddaeSO
74 yds · 1 TD · 18.5 YPC
81.4
60th RB
WR
Caleb RollersonSO
4 rec · 38 yds · 1 TD
74.1
143rd WR
WR
Jonathan BibbsSO
5 rec · 74 yds · 1 TD
67.6
353rd WR
TE
Thomas WadsworthSR
— rec · — yds · — TD
70.1
90th TE
Defense
LB
Tackett CurtisSR
33 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
73.3
245th LB
LB
Lewis CarterSR
24 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
70.8
337th LB
DB
Demari HendersonSR
29 tkl · 3 PD · 2 INT
79.7
68th DB
DB
Jayden BellamySR
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
77.0
122nd DB
DB
Jayden WilliamsSR
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
74.5
209th DB

Injury report

2 out
out
Lewis CarterLB

Carter has been placed on the injured list with a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

70.810-10
out
Duane Thomas Jr.WR

Thomas Jr. is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

69.0202510-10
Ques.
Alonza Barnett IIIQB

Barnett III is managing with an hamstring injury, and it is unclear if he will face BYU on Saturday, October 24th.

53.810-10
Ques.
Dylan WadeTE

Wade is dealing with an Shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will play against BYU on Saturday, October 24th.

48.810-10

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsBYU
    Playoff chance if win
    1.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  2. Week 9 · Oct 30
    vsBaylor
    Playoff chance if win
    0.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  3. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atKansas
    Playoff chance if win
    0.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsArizona State
    Playoff chance if win
    0.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.0%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 20
    vsIowa State
    Playoff chance if win
    0.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atColorado
    Playoff chance if win
    0.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%

Past seasons

Year by year
-7.7 points since 2022
405365789066.2202270.2202366.2202458.52025
2022 66.22023 70.22024 66.22025 58.5

2025

5-7
D-I rank
#75
Rating
58.5
Listed games · 12
WWWLLLWLLLWL
292 pts scored283 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Jacksonville StateW 17–10
  2. W2 vs North Carolina A&TW 68–7
  3. W4 vs North CarolinaW 34–9
  4. W5 at Kansas StateL 20–34
  5. W6 vs KansasL 20–27
  6. W7 at CincinnatiL 11–20
  7. W8 vs West VirginiaW 45–13
  8. W10 at BaylorL 3–30
  9. W11 vs HoustonL 27–30
  10. W12 at Texas TechL 9–48
  11. W13 vs Oklahoma StateW 17–14
  12. W14 at BYUL 21–41

2024

4-8
D-I rank
#44
Rating
66.2
Listed games · 12
WWWLLLLLWLLL
365 pts scored323 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs New HampshireW 57–3
  2. W2 vs Sam HoustonW 45–14
  3. W3 at TCUW 35–34
  4. W5 vs ColoradoL 21–48
  5. W6 at FloridaL 13–24
  6. W7 vs CincinnatiL 13–19
  7. W8 at Iowa StateL 35–38
  8. W9 vs BYUL 24–37
  9. W10 vs ArizonaW 56–12
  10. W11 at Arizona StateL 31–35
  11. W13 at West VirginiaL 21–31
  12. W14 vs UtahL 14–28

2023

6-6
D-I rank
#25
Rating
70.2
Listed games · 12
WWWLLLLLWWLW
390 pts scored305 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Kent StateW 56–6
  2. W2 at Boise StateW 18–16
  3. W3 vs VillanovaW 48–14
  4. W4 at Kansas StateL 31–44
  5. W5 vs BaylorL 35–36
  6. W6 at KansasL 22–51
  7. W8 at OklahomaL 29–31
  8. W9 vs West VirginiaL 28–41
  9. W10 at CincinnatiW 28–26
  10. W11 vs Oklahoma StateW 45–3
  11. W12 at Texas TechL 23–24
  12. W13 vs HoustonW 27–13

2022

9-4
D-I rank
#42
Rating
66.2
Listed games · 13
WLWWWWLWWWLWL
447 pts scored301 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs South Carolina StateW 56–10
  2. W2 vs LouisvilleL 14–20
  3. W3 at Florida AtlanticW 40–14
  4. W4 vs Georgia TechW 27–10
  5. W6 vs SMUW 41–19
  6. W7 vs TempleW 70–13
  7. W8 at East CarolinaL 13–34
  8. W9 vs CincinnatiW 25–21
  9. W10 at MemphisW 35–28
  10. W11 at TulaneW 38–31
  11. W12 vs NavyL 14–17
  12. W13 at South FloridaW 46–39
  13. W14 at TulaneL 28–45