AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#52Away
UCF
0-0 · AVR 54.6
27p
#74Home
Colorado
0-0 · AVR 47.8
25p
UCF 56%44% COLO
Spread
UCF -2.3
Total
53
Moneyline
UCF-129COLO+129
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UCF advantageevenCOLO advantage →
UCF throw
COLO +14
UCF run
COLO +59
COLO throw
COLO QB #130COLO WR #24
UCF +31
COLO run
UCF +40

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Ponder
Taj White
vs
Bruno Dall
LT · COLO
EDGE · UCF
57.6
95.8
UCF +38
when UCF throws
Jonathan Bibbs
vs
Justin Eaglin
X · UCF
CB1 · COLO
65.7
87.2
COLO +21
when COLO throws
Danny Scudero
vs
Jayden Bellamy
X · COLO
CB1 · UCF
70.8
74.2
UCF +3
when COLO runs
Micah Welch
vs
Jahleel Culbreath
RB · COLO
MLB · UCF
54.7
80.2
UCF +25
when UCF runs
Duke Watson
vs
Gideon ESPN Lampron
RB · UCF
MLB · COLO
49.4
83.8
COLO +34
over the middle
Dylan Wade
vs
Cree Thomas
TE · UCF
FS · COLO
53.4
65.4
COLO +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UCF
LBJahleel Culbreath
80.250/878
DBJayden Bellamy
74.2160/1427
DBDemari Henderson
72.5182/1427
LBLewis Carter
70.3139/878
DBCaleb Flagg
66.1333/1427
WRJonathan Bibbs
65.779/777

also out — L.A. Jessie Harrold (EDGE)

Colorado
DBJustin Eaglin
87.225/1427
LBGideon ESPN Lampron
83.829/878
WRDanny Scuderoquestionable
70.853/777
DBJason Stokes Jr.
69.4255/1427
LBLiona Lefau
67.6183/878
DBNaeten Mitchell
66.6318/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UCF
opponent
Colorado
home-1.3
Baylor#42
-11.1away
home+0.1
Arizona State#43
-9.7away
away+8.3
Oklahoma State#97
+3.6away
away-6.7
Houston#36
-6.5home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUCF +2.395% interval: -26.8 to 22.380% interval: -20.1 to 15.6-20+16UCF wins 56%COLO wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ COLO 28–28 UCFCOLO 25–53 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCOLO 28–49 UCF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCOLO 32–46 UCF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCOLO 35–42 UCF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCOLO 39–39 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCOLO 42–35 UCF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCOLO 46–32 UCF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCOLO 49–28 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 53–25 UCF neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCOLO 21–49 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 25–46 UCF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 28–42 UCF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCOLO 32–39 UCF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCOLO 35–35 UCF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCOLO 39–32 UCF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCOLO 42–28 UCF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCOLO 46–25 UCF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCOLO 49–21 UCF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCOLO 18–46 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCOLO 21–42 UCF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCOLO 25–39 UCF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCOLO 28–35 UCF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCOLO 32–32 UCF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCOLO 35–28 UCF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCOLO 39–25 UCF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCOLO 42–21 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCOLO 46–18 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCOLO 14–42 UCF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCOLO 18–39 UCF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCOLO 21–35 UCF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCOLO 25–32 UCF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCOLO 28–28 UCF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCOLO 32–25 UCF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCOLO 35–21 UCF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCOLO 39–18 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCOLO 42–14 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCOLO 11–39 UCF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCOLO 14–35 UCF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCOLO 18–32 UCF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCOLO 21–28 UCF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCOLO 25–25 UCF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCOLO 28–21 UCF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCOLO 32–18 UCF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCOLO 35–14 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCOLO 39–11 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCOLO 7–35 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCOLO 11–32 UCF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCOLO 14–28 UCF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCOLO 18–25 UCF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCOLO 21–21 UCF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCOLO 25–18 UCF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCOLO 28–14 UCF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCOLO 32–11 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCOLO 35–7 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCOLO 4–32 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 7–28 UCF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 11–25 UCF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCOLO 14–21 UCF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCOLO 18–18 UCF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCOLO 21–14 UCF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCOLO 25–11 UCF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCOLO 28–7 UCF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCOLO 32–4 UCF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUCF +28UCF +14PKCOLO +14COLO +28margin →