AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#43Away
Arizona State
0-0 · AVR 57.5
26p
#52Home
UCF
0-0 · AVR 54.6
27p
ASU 50%50% UCF
Spread
UCF -0.1
Total
53
Moneyline
ASU+101UCF-101
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ASU advantageevenUCF advantage →
ASU throw
ASU WR #16ASU protection #115
UCF +18
ASU run
UCF +64
UCF throw
ASU +19
UCF run
ASU +47

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UCF throws
Jonathan Bibbs
vs
Ashton Stamps
X · UCF
CB1 · ASU
65.7
85.2
ASU +19
when ASU throws
Omarion Miller
vs
Jayden Bellamy
X · ASU
CB1 · UCF
73.4
74.2
dead even
when ASU runs
Demarius Robinson
vs
Jahleel Culbreath
RB · ASU
MLB · UCF
47.5
80.2
UCF +33
over the middle
Dylan Wade
vs
Rodney Bimage Jr.
TE · UCF
FS · ASU
53.4
70.2
ASU +17
off the edge· hunting Boley
Xander Ruggeroli
vs
Bruno Dall
LT · ASU
EDGE · UCF
25.2
95.8
UCF +71
when UCF runs
Duke Watson
vs
Martell Hughes
RB · UCF
MLB · ASU
49.4
67.7
ASU +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arizona State
DBAshton Stamps
85.243/1427
DBJessiah McGrew
78.0115/1427
WROmarion Miller
73.438/777
SAdrian Wilson
73.3172/1427
WRRaiden Vines-Bright
70.951/777
LBMartell Hughes
67.7182/878

also out — key defensive lineman (DL), Nigel Pringle (CB), Z. Fiaseu (LB)

UCF
LBJahleel Culbreath
80.250/878
DBJayden Bellamy
74.2160/1427
DBDemari Henderson
72.5182/1427
LBLewis Carter
70.3139/878
DBCaleb Flagg
66.1333/1427
WRJonathan Bibbs
65.779/777

also out — L.A. Jessie Harrold (EDGE)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arizona State
opponent
UCF
home+9.7
Colorado#74
+2.3away
home+15.7
Oklahoma State#97
+8.3away
neutral0.0
Kansas#50
-4.9away
away-12.8
BYU#19
-10.2home
home+1.1
Baylor#42
-1.3home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUCF +0.195% interval: -23.8 to 2480% interval: -17.3 to 17.5-17+18ASU wins 50%UCF wins 50%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UCF 28–28 ASUUCF 25–53 ASU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 28–49 ASU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCF 32–46 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 35–42 ASU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 39–39 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 42–35 ASU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 46–32 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 49–28 ASU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCF 53–25 ASU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 21–49 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 25–46 ASU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCF 28–42 ASU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 32–39 ASU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCF 35–35 ASU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCF 39–32 ASU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCF 42–28 ASU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 46–25 ASU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCF 49–21 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 18–46 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 21–42 ASU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCF 25–39 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 28–35 ASU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCF 32–32 ASU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCF 35–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCF 39–25 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCF 42–21 ASU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCF 46–18 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 14–42 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 18–39 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 21–35 ASU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCF 25–32 ASU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCF 28–28 ASU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUCF 32–25 ASU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCF 35–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCF 39–18 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 42–14 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 11–39 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 14–35 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 18–32 ASU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCF 21–28 ASU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCF 25–25 ASU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCF 28–21 ASU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCF 32–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCF 35–14 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 39–11 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 7–35 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 11–32 ASU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCF 14–28 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 18–25 ASU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCF 21–21 ASU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCF 25–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCF 28–14 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 32–11 ASU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCF 35–7 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 4–32 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 7–28 ASU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCF 11–25 ASU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCF 14–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 18–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCF 21–14 ASU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 25–11 ASU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 28–7 ASU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCF 32–4 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalASU +28ASU +14PKUCF +14UCF +28margin →