CFB
Model
All rankings
Big 12

Houston

Cougars5-13rd in Big 12
TDECU Stadium · Houston, TX · 40,000
TeamMiddle of the pack
OffenseMethodical · eliteweak point: explosiveness, 127th
DefenseHavoc-driven · weak · stout against the runweak point: big plays allowed, 111th

The season

Best win
W 35-16 @ #37 Kansas State
Wk 6 · Oct 10 · model had 51%
Worst loss
L 26-28 @ #10 Texas Tech
Wk 3 · Sep 18 · model had 23%

Schedule

model 6/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    vsOregon State
    W 33–20
    Win chance 88%Model margin +15.7Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsSouthern
    W 77–6
    Win chance >99%Model margin +56.4Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 18
    atTexas Tech
    L 26–28
    Win chance 23%Model margin -10.1Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    atGeorgia Southern
    W 42–28
    Win chance 92%Model margin +19.2Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsUCF
    W 27–17
    Win chance 72%Model margin +7.8Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 10
    atKansas State
    W 35–16
    Win chance 51%Model margin +0.2Game details
  7. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsOklahoma State
    Win chance 84%Model margin +13.1Game details
  8. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atUtah
    Win chance 16%Model margin -13.6Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsCincinnati
    Win chance 68%Model margin +6.4Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atColorado
    Win chance 77%Model margin +10.0Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    atWest Virginia
    Win chance 60%Model margin +3.4Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    vsBaylor
    Win chance 65%Model margin +5.2Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
68
#35 of 138
Defense efficiency
62
#51 of 138
Efficiency
#50.36
EPA / play
#840.09
#60.55
Pass
#930.22
#210.23
Rush
#33-0.05
#255%
Success
#5539%
Big plays & havoc
#1271.09
Explosive
#1111.32
#710%
Havoc
#1920%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB19th
RB4th
WR22nd
TE5th
OL12th
DL15th
LB40th
DB58th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Luke CarneySO
— yds · — TD · — INT
90.4
20th QB
RB
John HebertFR
65 yds · 1 TD · 13.0 YPC
88.7
15th RB
WR
Jack NewhouseFR
— rec · — yds · — TD
92.4
4th WR
WR
Amare ThomasSR
27 rec · 330 yds · 4 TD
77.0
88th WR
TE
Wyatt HerbelSO
— rec · — yds · — TD
88.6
5th TE
Defense
LB
Christian BrathwaiteJR
3 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
91.1
7th LB
LB
Brandon Mack IISR
12 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
71.4
310th LB
DB
Jalen MayoSR
19 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
83.8
32nd DB
DB
Javion WhiteJR
21 tkl · 5 PD · 0 INT
74.4
216th DB
DB
Kentrell WebbSR
29 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
69.2
497th DB

Injury report

2 out
out
John HebertRB

Hebert is laid up with a lower leg injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

88.710-05
out
Muizz TounkaraWR

Tounkara is nursing with a foot injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

49.4202508-11
Ques.
Jacory ThurmanTE

Thurman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

65.010-11
Ques.
Jeffrey Strozier Jr.WR

Strozier is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will suit up against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th

60.010-11
Ques.
Evan NoelK

Noel is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

—10-11
Ques.
JayShon RidgleRB

Ridgle is dealing with undisclosed injury, it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

60.0202510-11

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsOklahoma State
    Playoff chance if win
    1.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.3%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atUtah
    Playoff chance if win
    6.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  3. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsCincinnati
    Playoff chance if win
    2.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atColorado
    Playoff chance if win
    2.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 21
    atWest Virginia
    Playoff chance if win
    2.4%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 28
    vsBaylor
    Playoff chance if win
    2.4%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.2%

Past seasons

Year by year
-0.1 points since 2022
405060708066.5202256.1202358.1202466.52025
2022 66.52023 56.12024 58.12025 66.5

2025

9-3
D-I rank
#45
Rating
66.5
Listed games · 12
WWWWLWWWLWLW
340 pts scored262 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Stephen F. AustinW 27–0
  2. W2 at RiceW 35–9
  3. W3 vs ColoradoW 36–20
  4. W5 at Oregon StateW 27–24
  5. W6 vs Texas TechL 11–35
  6. W7 at Oklahoma StateW 39–17
  7. W8 vs ArizonaW 31–28
  8. W9 at Arizona StateW 24–16
  9. W10 vs West VirginiaL 35–45
  10. W11 at UCFW 30–27
  11. W13 vs TCUL 14–17
  12. W14 at BaylorW 31–24

2024

4-8
D-I rank
#80
Rating
58.1
Listed games · 12
LLWLLWLWWLLL
168 pts scored275 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs UNLVL 7–27
  2. W2 at OklahomaL 12–16
  3. W3 vs RiceW 33–7
  4. W4 at CincinnatiL 0–34
  5. W5 vs Iowa StateL 0–20
  6. W6 at TCUW 30–19
  7. W8 vs KansasL 14–42
  8. W9 vs UtahW 17–14
  9. W10 vs Kansas StateW 24–19
  10. W12 at ArizonaL 3–27
  11. W13 vs BaylorL 10–20
  12. W14 at BYUL 18–30

2023

4-8
D-I rank
#85
Rating
56.1
Listed games · 12
WLLWLWLLWLLL
284 pts scored378 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs UTSAW 17–14
  2. W2 at RiceL 41–43
  3. W3 vs TCUL 13–36
  4. W4 vs Sam HoustonW 38–7
  5. W5 at Texas TechL 28–49
  6. W7 vs West VirginiaW 41–39
  7. W8 vs TexasL 24–31
  8. W9 at Kansas StateL 0–41
  9. W10 at BaylorW 25–24
  10. W11 vs CincinnatiL 14–24
  11. W12 vs Oklahoma StateL 30–43
  12. W13 at UCFL 13–27

2022

7-5
D-I rank
#38
Rating
66.5
Listed games · 12
WLLWLWWWLWWL
446 pts scored402 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at UTSAW 37–35
  2. W2 at Texas TechL 30–33
  3. W3 vs KansasL 30–48
  4. W4 vs RiceW 34–27
  5. W5 vs TulaneL 24–27
  6. W6 at MemphisW 33–32
  7. W8 at NavyW 38–20
  8. W9 vs South FloridaW 42–27
  9. W10 at SMUL 63–77
  10. W11 vs TempleW 43–36
  11. W12 at East CarolinaW 42–3
  12. W13 vs TulsaL 30–37