CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
OKST 19.7%80.3% HOU
Projected margin
HOU by 13.1
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
OKST 5 to HOU 32
Win probability
HOU 80.3%

Current team profiles

Oklahoma State
Houston

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Passing

OKST offense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST offense
#31
HOU defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.37
#31
0.22
#93
Pass EPA

Rushing

HOU defense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST offense
#93
HOU defense
#33
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
-0.05
#33
Rush EPA

Drive success

OKST offense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST offense
#18
HOU defense
#55
Success rates
50%
#18
39%
#55
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#63
0.09
#84
EPA / play
1.09
#128
1.32
#111
Explosiveness
10%
#9
20%
#19
Havoc

When Houston has the ball

Passing

HOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST defense
#41
HOU offense
#6
EPA comparison
0.07
#41
0.55
#6
Pass EPA

Rushing

HOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST defense
#47
HOU offense
#21
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
0.23
#21
Rush EPA

Drive success

HOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST defense
#54
HOU offense
#2
Success rates
39%
#54
55%
#2
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#52
0.36
#5
EPA / play
1.20
#57
1.09
#127
Explosiveness
15%
#81
10%
#7
Havoc

Current key players

Oklahoma State
QBDrew Mestemaker
1271 yds · 11 TD · 5 INT
83.155/729
WRWyatt Young
22 rec · 410 yds · 3 TD
84.026/2069
RBKD Jones
54 yds · 1 TD · 7.7 YPC
83.744/1044
LBEthan Wesloski
36 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.6
Coverage
81.3
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
79.392/1796
CBMo Horn
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.7
Coverage
82.3
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
66
Passer rating allowed
118.0
Missed tackles
0
78.192/2969
LBJack Puckett
0 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
61.7
Coverage
60.7
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
75.8161/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Jacob Sexton · OGout · 2026-10-10

    Sexton is dealing with a leg injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Oscar Hammond · TEout · 2026-09-20

    Hammond is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

Houston
QBLuke Carney
— yds · — TD · — INT
90.420/729
WRJack Newhouse
— rec · — yds · — TD
92.44/2069
LBChristian Brathwaite
3 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
89.0
Coverage
72.3
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
91.17/1796
RBJohn Hebert
65 yds · 1 TD · 13.0 YPC
88.715/1044
TEWyatt Herbel
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
83.4
Penalties
0
88.65/1017
DBJalen Mayo
19 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.2
Coverage
78.7
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
158
Passer rating allowed
74.5
Missed tackles
3
83.832/2969
Availability reports · 6
  • John Hebert · RBout · 2026-10-05

    Hebert is laid up with a lower leg injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Muizz Tounkara · WRout · 2026-08-11

    Tounkara is nursing with a foot injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Jacory Thurman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Thurman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jeffrey Strozier Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Strozier is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will suit up against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th

  • Evan Noel · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Noel is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

  • JayShon Ridgle · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ridgle is dealing with undisclosed injury, it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

OKST
HOU
vs
Offense
83.1
#48 of 138
QB
90.4
#19 of 138
79.5
#38 of 138
RB
87.3
#4 of 138
76.0
#30 of 138
WR
77.3
#22 of 138
60.4
#115 of 138
TE
88.6
#5 of 138
69.7
#56 of 138
OL
76.2
#12 of 138
Defense
75.6
#49 of 138
DL
80.3
#15 of 138
76.0
#51 of 138
LB
77.6
#40 of 138
70.7
#88 of 138
DB
72.8
#58 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Oklahoma State
opponent
Houston
A-12.3
KSU#37
+19.0A
H-21.6
TTU#10
-2.0A
A+17.0
WVU#86
+3.4A
H+4.8
COLO#84
+10.0A
H+14.0
UCF#48
+10.0H