AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#97Away
Oklahoma State
0-0 · AVR 40.7
18p
#36Home
Houston
0-0 · AVR 60.1
36p
OKST 11%89% HOU
Spread
HOU -17.5
Total
54
Moneyline
OKST+796HOU-796
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OKST advantageevenHOU advantage →
OKST throw
OKST protection #77HOU coverage #18
OKST +20
OKST run
OKST backs #26HOU front #114
OKST +7
HOU throw
HOU +7
HOU run
HOU line #21HOU backs #107
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OKST throws
Wyatt Young
vs
Will James
X · OKST
CB1 · HOU
79.7
88.9
HOU +9
when OKST runs
Caleb Hawkins
vs
Brandon Mack II
RB · OKST
MLB · HOU
88.3
78.1
OKST +10
off the edge· hunting Mestemaker
Johnny Dickson III
vs
Khalil Laufau
LT · OKST
EDGE · HOU
90.8
71.6
OKST +19
off the edge· hunting Weigman
Shadre Hurst
vs
Keviyan Huddleston
LT · HOU
EDGE · OKST
80.2
79.1
dead even
when HOU throws
Amare Thomas
vs
Kollin Lewis
X · HOU
CB1 · OKST
69.4
68.8
dead even
when HOU runs
Makhi Hughes
vs
Ethan Wesloski
RB · HOU
MLB · OKST
51.8
76.0
OKST +24

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oklahoma State
RBCaleb Hawkins
88.32/514
QBDrew Mestemaker
86.39/308
WRWyatt Young
79.722/777
LBEthan Wesloski
76.095/878
CBKollin Lewis
68.8265/1427
SChristian Bodnar
68.1279/1427
Houston
DBWill James
88.916/1427
LBBrandon Mack II
78.177/878
LBLatreveon McCutchin
75.4102/878
DBJamaal Shaw
73.3171/1427
DBJavion White
73.1175/1427
WRAmare Thomas
69.457/777

also out — L. McGary (TE), M. Tounkara (WR)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oklahoma State
opponent
Houston
away-10.4
West Virginia#66
+4.6away
home-8.3
UCF#52
+6.7home
away-17.7
Kansas State#44
-2.7away
home-3.6
Colorado#74
+6.5away
home-27.6
Texas Tech#5
-17.6away

Projected margin

80% between 0 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHOU +17.595% interval: -6.4 to 41.480% interval: 0.2 to 34.9+0+35OKST wins 11%HOU wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HOU 35–21 OKSTHOU 35–42 OKST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 39–39 OKST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHOU 42–35 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 46–32 OKST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHOU 49–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHOU 53–25 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 56–21 OKST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHOU 60–18 OKST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 63–14 OKST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesHOU 32–39 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHOU 35–35 OKST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHOU 39–32 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHOU 42–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHOU 46–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHOU 49–21 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHOU 53–18 OKST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHOU 56–14 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHOU 60–11 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHOU 28–35 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHOU 32–32 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 35–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHOU 39–25 OKST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHOU 42–21 OKST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHOU 46–18 OKST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHOU 49–14 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 53–11 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHOU 56–7 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHOU 25–32 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHOU 28–28 OKST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHOU 32–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHOU 35–21 OKST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesHOU 39–18 OKST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesHOU 42–14 OKST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHOU 46–11 OKST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHOU 49–7 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHOU 53–4 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHOU 21–28 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHOU 25–25 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 28–21 OKST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHOU 32–18 OKST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHOU 35–14 OKST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHOU 39–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHOU 42–7 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 46–4 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHOU 49–0 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHOU 18–25 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHOU 21–21 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHOU 25–18 OKST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 28–14 OKST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHOU 32–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHOU 35–7 OKST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 39–4 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHOU 42–0 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)HOU 14–21 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHOU 18–18 OKST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHOU 21–14 OKST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHOU 25–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 28–7 OKST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 32–4 OKST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHOU 35–0 OKST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalOKST +7HOU +7HOU +21HOU +35HOU +49margin →