AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:00 PM
#122Away
Oregon State
0-0 · AVR 30.8
8p
#36Home
Houston
0-0 · AVR 60.1
43p
ORST 1%99% HOU
Spread
HOU -35.3
Total
51
Moneyline
ORST—HOU—
Against the market
HOU +14.8line HOU -20.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ORST advantageevenHOU advantage →
ORST throw
ORST protection #57HOU coverage #18
HOU +36
ORST run
HOU front #114HOU linebackers #26
HOU +9
HOU throw
HOU +32
HOU run
HOU line #21HOU backs #107
HOU +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Weigman
Shadre Hurst
vs
Tygee Hill
LT · HOU
EDGE · ORST
80.2
65.5
HOU +15
when HOU throws
Amare Thomas
vs
Sailasa Vadrawale III
X · HOU
CB1 · ORST
69.4
72.4
ORST +3
when ORST runs
AJ Newberry
vs
Brandon Mack II
RB · ORST
MLB · HOU
53.9
78.1
HOU +24
when ORST throws
Karson Boschma
vs
Will James
X · ORST
CB1 · HOU
42.5
88.9
HOU +46
when HOU runs
Makhi Hughes
vs
Aiden Sullivan
RB · HOU
MLB · ORST
51.8
70.3
ORST +18
off the edge· hunting Murphy
Nathan Elu
vs
Khalil Laufau
LT · ORST
EDGE · HOU
48.3
71.6
HOU +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oregon State
DBSailasa Vadrawale III
72.4183/1427
LBAiden Sullivan
70.3141/878
LBTakari Hickle
67.3189/878
DBZephen Walker
57.5549/1427
DBHarlem Howard
56.2585/1427
RBAJ Newberry
53.9182/514
Houston
DBWill James
88.916/1427
LBBrandon Mack II
78.177/878
LBLatreveon McCutchin
75.4102/878
DBJamaal Shaw
73.3171/1427
DBJavion White
73.1175/1427
WRAmare Thomas
69.457/777

also out — L. McGary (TE), M. Tounkara (WR)

Projected margin

80% between 15 and 52
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHOU +35.3MKT95% interval: 5 to 6280% interval: 15 to 52+15+52ORST wins 1%HOU wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HOU 42–7 ORSTHOU 39–32 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 42–28 ORST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHOU 46–25 ORST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHOU 49–21 ORST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHOU 53–18 ORST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesHOU 56–14 ORST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHOU 60–11 ORST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHOU 63–7 ORST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHOU 67–4 ORST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 35–28 ORST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 39–25 ORST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHOU 42–21 ORST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHOU 46–18 ORST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHOU 49–14 ORST neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesHOU 53–11 ORST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHOU 56–7 ORST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 60–4 ORST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHOU 63–0 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHOU 32–25 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHOU 35–21 ORST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHOU 39–18 ORST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHOU 42–14 ORST neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesHOU 46–11 ORST neighborhood · ~4.0% of outcomesHOU 49–7 ORST neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesHOU 53–4 ORST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHOU 56–0 ORST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)HOU 28–21 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHOU 32–18 ORST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHOU 35–14 ORST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHOU 39–11 ORST neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesHOU 42–7 ORST neighborhood · ~4.1% of outcomesHOU 46–4 ORST neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesHOU 49–0 ORST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)HOU 25–18 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHOU 28–14 ORST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHOU 32–11 ORST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesHOU 35–7 ORST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesHOU 39–4 ORST neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesHOU 42–0 ORST neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)HOU 21–14 ORST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 25–11 ORST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHOU 28–7 ORST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHOU 32–4 ORST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHOU 35–0 ORST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)HOU 18–11 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 21–7 ORST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHOU 25–4 ORST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesHOU 28–0 ORST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalHOU +7HOU +21HOU +35HOU +49HOU +63margin →