CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET
#157Away
Oregon State
0-0 · AVR 45.3
20
Final
#54Home
Houston
0-0 · AVR 59.6
33
Forecast win probability
ORST 16.3%83.7% HOU
Projected margin
HOU by 15.7
Projected total
50
80% outcome range
ORST 5 to HOU 36
Win probability
HOU 83.7%
FinalORST 20 · HOU 33model had +15.7, off by 2.7

Current team profiles

Oregon State
Houston

When Oregon State has the ball

Passing

ORST offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST offense
#11
HOU defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.50
#11
0.22
#93
Pass EPA

Rushing

HOU defense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST offense
#81
HOU defense
#33
EPA comparison
0.08
#81
-0.05
#33
Rush EPA

Drive success

ORST offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST offense
#11
HOU defense
#55
Success rates
51%
#11
39%
#55
Success rate
More metrics
0.32
#10
0.09
#84
EPA / play
1.26
#45
1.32
#111
Explosiveness
11%
#21
20%
#19
Havoc

When Houston has the ball

Passing

HOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST defense
#49
HOU offense
#6
EPA comparison
0.08
#49
0.55
#6
Pass EPA

Rushing

HOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST defense
#52
HOU offense
#21
EPA comparison
0.01
#52
0.23
#21
Rush EPA

Drive success

HOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST defense
#71
HOU offense
#2
Success rates
40%
#71
55%
#2
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#55
0.36
#5
EPA / play
1.08
#18
1.09
#127
Explosiveness
17%
#45
10%
#7
Havoc

Current key players

Oregon State
QBBraden Atkinson
1827 yds · 16 TD · 2 INT
84.947/729
WRJesse Legree
28 rec · 741 yds · 9 TD
89.68/2069
TELandon Cook
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
59.9
Penalties
0
80.723/1017
LBTakari Hickle
27 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.6
Coverage
60.5
Pressures
17
Pass-rush snaps
116
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
1
77.2135/1796
LBKord Shaw
20 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.9
Coverage
71.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
6
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
75.3174/1796
RBAJ Newberry
271 yds · 2 TD · 6.0 YPC
73.9195/1044
Houston
QBLuke Carney
— yds · — TD · — INT
90.420/729
WRJack Newhouse
— rec · — yds · — TD
92.44/2069
LBChristian Brathwaite
3 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
89.0
Coverage
72.3
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
91.17/1796
RBJohn Hebert
65 yds · 1 TD · 13.0 YPC
88.715/1044
TEWyatt Herbel
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
83.4
Penalties
0
88.65/1017
DBJalen Mayo
19 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.2
Coverage
78.7
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
158
Passer rating allowed
74.5
Missed tackles
3
83.832/2969
Availability reports · 6
  • John Hebert · RBout · 2026-10-05

    Hebert is laid up with a lower leg injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Muizz Tounkara · WRout · 2026-08-11

    Tounkara is nursing with a foot injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Jacory Thurman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Thurman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jeffrey Strozier Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Strozier is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will suit up against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th

  • Evan Noel · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Noel is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

  • JayShon Ridgle · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ridgle is dealing with undisclosed injury, it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ORST
HOU
vs
Offense
84.9
#41 of 138
QB
90.4
#19 of 138
70.9
#113 of 138
RB
87.3
#4 of 138
72.0
#60 of 138
WR
77.3
#22 of 138
80.7
#23 of 138
TE
88.6
#5 of 138
72.6
#30 of 138
OL
76.2
#12 of 138
Defense
65.1
#136 of 138
DL
80.3
#15 of 138
75.6
#56 of 138
LB
77.6
#40 of 138
66.9
#126 of 138
DB
72.8
#58 of 138
Common opponents