AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 3:15 AM
#36Away
Houston
0-0 · AVR 60.1
30p
#74Home
Colorado
0-0 · AVR 47.8
23p
HOU 67%33% COLO
Spread
HOU -6.5
Total
53
Moneyline
HOU-201COLO+201
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← HOU advantageevenCOLO advantage →
HOU throw
COLO +6
HOU run
HOU line #21HOU backs #107
COLO +18
COLO throw
COLO QB #130COLO WR #24
HOU +20
COLO run
HOU front #114HOU linebackers #26
HOU +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Weigman
Shadre Hurst
vs
Dylan Manuel
LT · HOU
EDGE · COLO
80.2
83.0
dead even
when COLO throws
Danny Scudero
vs
Will James
X · COLO
CB1 · HOU
70.8
88.9
HOU +18
when HOU throws
Amare Thomas
vs
Justin Eaglin
X · HOU
CB1 · COLO
69.4
87.2
COLO +18
when HOU runs
Makhi Hughes
vs
Gideon ESPN Lampron
RB · HOU
MLB · COLO
51.8
83.8
COLO +32
when COLO runs
Micah Welch
vs
Brandon Mack II
RB · COLO
MLB · HOU
54.7
78.1
HOU +23
off the edge· hunting Ponder
Taj White
vs
Khalil Laufau
LT · COLO
EDGE · HOU
57.6
71.6
HOU +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Houston
DBWill James
88.916/1427
LBBrandon Mack II
78.177/878
LBLatreveon McCutchin
75.4102/878
DBJamaal Shaw
73.3171/1427
DBJavion White
73.1175/1427
WRAmare Thomas
69.457/777

also out — L. McGary (TE), M. Tounkara (WR)

Colorado
DBJustin Eaglin
87.225/1427
LBGideon ESPN Lampron
83.829/878
WRDanny Scuderoquestionable
70.853/777
DBJason Stokes Jr.
69.4255/1427
LBLiona Lefau
67.6183/878
DBNaeten Mitchell
66.6318/1427

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Houston
opponent
Colorado
home+5.6
Cincinnati#51
-8.4away
home+2.9
Baylor#42
-11.1away
home+17.5
Oklahoma State#97
+3.6away
home+6.7
UCF#52
-2.3home
away-17.6
Texas Tech#5
-21.6home
away-13.1
Utah#16
-17.0home
away-2.7
Kansas State#44
-6.6home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHOU +6.595% interval: -30.4 to 17.480% interval: -23.9 to 10.9-24+11HOU wins 67%COLO wins 33%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HOU 32–25 COLOCOLO 21–56 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCOLO 25–53 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCOLO 28–49 HOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCOLO 32–46 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCOLO 35–42 HOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCOLO 39–39 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCOLO 42–35 HOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCOLO 46–32 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCOLO 49–28 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCOLO 18–53 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCOLO 21–49 HOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCOLO 25–46 HOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCOLO 28–42 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCOLO 32–39 HOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCOLO 35–35 HOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCOLO 39–32 HOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCOLO 42–28 HOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCOLO 46–25 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCOLO 14–49 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 18–46 HOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCOLO 21–42 HOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCOLO 25–39 HOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCOLO 28–35 HOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCOLO 32–32 HOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCOLO 35–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCOLO 39–25 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 42–21 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 11–46 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 14–42 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 18–39 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCOLO 21–35 HOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCOLO 25–32 HOU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCOLO 28–28 HOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCOLO 32–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCOLO 35–21 HOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCOLO 39–18 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCOLO 7–42 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 11–39 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 14–35 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCOLO 18–32 HOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCOLO 21–28 HOU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCOLO 25–25 HOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCOLO 28–21 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCOLO 32–18 HOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCOLO 35–14 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCOLO 4–39 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 7–35 HOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCOLO 11–32 HOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCOLO 14–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCOLO 18–25 HOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCOLO 21–21 HOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCOLO 25–18 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCOLO 28–14 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 32–11 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 0–35 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCOLO 4–32 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCOLO 7–28 HOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCOLO 11–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCOLO 14–21 HOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCOLO 18–18 HOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCOLO 21–14 HOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCOLO 25–11 HOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCOLO 28–7 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalHOU +35HOU +21HOU +7COLO +7COLO +21margin →