AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#51Away
Cincinnati
0-0 · AVR 54.8
25p
#36Home
Houston
0-0 · AVR 60.1
30p
CIN 35%65% HOU
Spread
HOU -5.6
Total
55
Moneyline
CIN+186HOU-186
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CIN advantageevenHOU advantage →
CIN throw
CIN protection #3HOU coverage #18
CIN +11
CIN run
CIN backs #64HOU front #114
CIN +27
HOU throw
CIN coverage #55CIN pass rush #143
HOU +32
HOU run
HOU line #21HOU backs #107
HOU +32

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting IV
Evan Tengesdahl
vs
Khalil Laufau
LT · CIN
EDGE · HOU
97.1
71.6
CIN +26
when CIN throws
Isaiah Johnson
vs
Will James
X · CIN
CB1 · HOU
64.7
88.9
HOU +24
when HOU throws
Amare Thomas
vs
Ty Goodwill
X · HOU
CB1 · CIN
69.4
76.9
CIN +7
when CIN runs
Zylan Perry
vs
Brandon Mack II
RB · CIN
MLB · HOU
62.9
78.1
HOU +15
off the edge· hunting Weigman
Shadre Hurst
vs
Chidera Otutu
LT · HOU
EDGE · CIN
80.2
57.1
HOU +23
over the middle
Gavin Grover
vs
Jordan Allen
TE · CIN
FS · HOU
61.5
72.6
HOU +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Cincinnati
STy Goodwill
76.9128/1427
DBMJ Cannon
74.9156/1427
LBJonathan Thompson
72.1122/878
SJasper Beeler
67.8287/1427
QBJC French IV
67.449/308
WRIsaiah Johnson
64.785/777
Houston
DBWill James
88.916/1427
LBBrandon Mack II
78.177/878
LBLatreveon McCutchin
75.4102/878
DBJamaal Shaw
73.3171/1427
DBJavion White
73.1175/1427
WRAmare Thomas
69.457/777

also out — L. McGary (TE), M. Tounkara (WR)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Cincinnati
opponent
Houston
away+1.5
West Virginia#66
+4.6away
home-15.7
Texas Tech#5
-17.6away
home-11.2
Utah#16
-13.1away
home+8.4
Colorado#74
+6.5away
home-0.8
Kansas State#44
-2.7away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHOU +5.695% interval: -18.3 to 29.580% interval: -11.8 to 23-12+23CIN wins 35%HOU wins 65%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HOU 32–25 CINHOU 28–49 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 32–46 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHOU 35–42 CIN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHOU 39–39 CIN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHOU 42–35 CIN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHOU 46–32 CIN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHOU 49–28 CIN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHOU 53–25 CIN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHOU 56–21 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHOU 25–46 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 28–42 CIN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHOU 32–39 CIN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHOU 35–35 CIN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHOU 39–32 CIN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHOU 42–28 CIN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 46–25 CIN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesHOU 49–21 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHOU 53–18 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 21–42 CIN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHOU 25–39 CIN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHOU 28–35 CIN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHOU 32–32 CIN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHOU 35–28 CIN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHOU 39–25 CIN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHOU 42–21 CIN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHOU 46–18 CIN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHOU 49–14 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 18–39 CIN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHOU 21–35 CIN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHOU 25–32 CIN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 28–28 CIN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHOU 32–25 CIN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesHOU 35–21 CIN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHOU 39–18 CIN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHOU 42–14 CIN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHOU 46–11 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 14–35 CIN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHOU 18–32 CIN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHOU 21–28 CIN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHOU 25–25 CIN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHOU 28–21 CIN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHOU 32–18 CIN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesHOU 35–14 CIN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHOU 39–11 CIN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHOU 42–7 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 11–32 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 14–28 CIN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHOU 18–25 CIN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHOU 21–21 CIN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHOU 25–18 CIN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHOU 28–14 CIN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesHOU 32–11 CIN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 35–7 CIN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHOU 39–4 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 7–28 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 11–25 CIN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHOU 14–21 CIN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 18–18 CIN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHOU 21–14 CIN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 25–11 CIN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHOU 28–7 CIN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHOU 32–4 CIN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHOU 35–0 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalCIN +21CIN +7HOU +7HOU +21HOU +35margin →