AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#36Away
Houston
0-0 · AVR 60.1
26p
#44Home
Kansas State
0-0 · AVR 57.1
29p
HOU 43%57% KSU
Spread
KSU -2.7
Total
55
Moneyline
HOU+132KSU-132
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← HOU advantageevenKSU advantage →
HOU throw
KSU +5
HOU run
HOU line #21HOU backs #107
even
KSU throw
KSU protection #103HOU coverage #18
even
KSU run
KSU line #103KSU backs #16
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Weigman
Shadre Hurst
vs
Elijah Hill
LT · HOU
EDGE · KSU
80.2
82.5
dead even
when KSU runs
Joe Jackson
vs
Brandon Mack II
RB · KSU
MLB · HOU
81.0
78.1
dead even
when HOU throws
Amare Thomas
vs
Ja'son Prevard
X · HOU
CB1 · KSU
69.4
84.6
KSU +15
when KSU throws
Josh Manning
vs
Will James
X · KSU
CB1 · HOU
61.3
88.9
HOU +28
over the middle
Garrett Oakley
vs
Jordan Allen
TE · KSU
FS · HOU
67.4
72.6
HOU +5
over the middle
Patrick Overmyer
vs
Donovan McIntosh
TE · HOU
FS · KSU
59.2
67.2
KSU +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Houston
DBWill James
88.916/1427
LBBrandon Mack II
78.177/878
LBLatreveon McCutchin
75.4102/878
DBJamaal Shaw
73.3171/1427
DBJavion White
73.1175/1427
WRAmare Thomas
69.457/777

also out — L. McGary (TE), M. Tounkara (WR)

Kansas State
SJa'son Prevard
84.650/1427
RBJoe Jackson
81.020/514
CBZashon Rich
81.084/1427
QBAvery Johnson
73.331/308
SKoy Beasley
70.7221/1427
LBMekhi Mason
70.3138/878

also out — Fans Should Look, Kansas State offensive line (OL), Morley (OL), OL starter (OL), Pastore (OL), George Fitzpatrick (OL), John Pastore (OL), Tackle John Pastore +3 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Houston
opponent
Kansas State
home+5.6
Cincinnati#51
+0.8away
home+17.5
Oklahoma State#97
+17.7home
away+6.5
Colorado#74
+6.6away

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKSU +2.795% interval: -21.2 to 26.680% interval: -14.7 to 20.1-15+20HOU wins 43%KSU wins 57%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KSU 28–28 HOUKSU 25–53 HOU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesKSU 28–49 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 32–46 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKSU 35–42 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 39–39 HOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 42–35 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKSU 46–32 HOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKSU 49–28 HOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKSU 53–25 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 21–49 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 25–46 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 28–42 HOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKSU 32–39 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 35–35 HOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKSU 39–32 HOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKSU 42–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKSU 46–25 HOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKSU 49–21 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 18–46 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 21–42 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKSU 25–39 HOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKSU 28–35 HOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKSU 32–32 HOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKSU 35–28 HOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKSU 39–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKSU 42–21 HOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKSU 46–18 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 14–42 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 18–39 HOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 21–35 HOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKSU 25–32 HOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 28–28 HOU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKSU 32–25 HOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKSU 35–21 HOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKSU 39–18 HOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKSU 42–14 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKSU 11–39 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 14–35 HOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 18–32 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 21–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKSU 25–25 HOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKSU 28–21 HOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKSU 32–18 HOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKSU 35–14 HOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKSU 39–11 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 7–35 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 11–32 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKSU 14–28 HOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKSU 18–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKSU 21–21 HOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKSU 25–18 HOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKSU 28–14 HOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 32–11 HOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKSU 35–7 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 4–32 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 7–28 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 11–25 HOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKSU 14–21 HOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKSU 18–18 HOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKSU 21–14 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 25–11 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 28–7 HOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKSU 32–4 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalHOU +28HOU +14PKKSU +14KSU +28margin →