AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#36Away
Houston
0-0 · AVR 60.1
36p
#117Home
Georgia Southern
0-0 · AVR 33.9
22p
HOU 84%17% GASO
Spread
HOU -14.2
Total
57
Moneyline
HOU-506GASO+506
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← HOU advantageevenGASO advantage →
HOU throw
HOU +65
HOU run
HOU line #21HOU backs #107
HOU +33
GASO throw
HOU coverage #18HOU pass rush #114
HOU +25
GASO run
HOU front #114HOU linebackers #26
HOU +11

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bryan
Caelan Williams
vs
Khalil Laufau
LT · GASO
EDGE · HOU
78.6
71.6
GASO +7
when GASO throws
Ashton Hollins
vs
Will James
X · GASO
CB1 · HOU
49.2
88.9
HOU +40
when HOU runs
Makhi Hughes
vs
Anthony Bynum
RB · HOU
MLB · GASO
51.8
78.1
GASO +26
off the edge· hunting Weigman
Shadre Hurst
vs
Caleb Moore
LT · HOU
EDGE · GASO
80.2
49.3
HOU +31
when GASO runs
David Mbadinga
vs
Brandon Mack II
RB · GASO
MLB · HOU
50.8
78.1
HOU +27
over the middle
JP Mikhael
vs
Jordan Allen
TE · GASO
FS · HOU
50.3
72.6
HOU +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Houston
DBWill James
88.916/1427
LBBrandon Mack II
78.177/878
LBLatreveon McCutchin
75.4102/878
DBJamaal Shaw
73.3171/1427
DBJavion White
73.1175/1427
WRAmare Thomas
69.457/777

also out — L. McGary (TE), M. Tounkara (WR)

Georgia Southern
LBAnthony Bynum
78.180/878
LBMJ Stroud
62.8244/878
QBWeston Bryan
51.6140/308
DBTracy Hill Jr.
50.9747/1427
RBDavid Mbadinga
50.8272/514
TEJP Mikhael
50.3129/287

Projected margin

80% between -32 and 3
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHOU +14.295% interval: -38.1 to 9.780% interval: -31.6 to 3.2-32+3HOU wins 84%GASO wins 17%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HOU 35–21 GASOGASO 18–60 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 21–56 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGASO 25–53 HOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGASO 28–49 HOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGASO 32–46 HOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGASO 35–42 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGASO 39–39 HOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGASO 42–35 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGASO 46–32 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 14–56 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 18–53 HOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGASO 21–49 HOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGASO 25–46 HOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGASO 28–42 HOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGASO 32–39 HOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGASO 35–35 HOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGASO 39–32 HOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGASO 42–28 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 11–53 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 14–49 HOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGASO 18–46 HOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGASO 21–42 HOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGASO 25–39 HOU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGASO 28–35 HOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGASO 32–32 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGASO 35–28 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGASO 39–25 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 7–49 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 11–46 HOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGASO 14–42 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGASO 18–39 HOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGASO 21–35 HOU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesGASO 25–32 HOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGASO 28–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGASO 32–25 HOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGASO 35–21 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 4–46 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 7–42 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGASO 11–39 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGASO 14–35 HOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGASO 18–32 HOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGASO 21–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGASO 25–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGASO 28–21 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGASO 32–18 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 0–42 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 4–39 HOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGASO 7–35 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGASO 11–32 HOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGASO 14–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGASO 18–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGASO 21–21 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGASO 25–18 HOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGASO 28–14 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)GASO 0–35 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGASO 4–32 HOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGASO 7–28 HOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGASO 11–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGASO 14–21 HOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGASO 18–18 HOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGASO 21–14 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGASO 25–11 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalHOU +42HOU +28HOU +14PKGASO +14margin →