AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#36Away
Houston
0-0 · AVR 60.1
29p
#66Home
West Virginia
0-0 · AVR 50.2
25p
HOU 62%38% WVU
Spread
HOU -4.6
Total
54
Moneyline
HOU-166WVU+166
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← HOU advantageevenWVU advantage →
HOU throw
WVU coverage #117WVU pass rush #27
HOU +20
HOU run
HOU line #21HOU backs #107
WVU +15
WVU throw
HOU coverage #18HOU pass rush #114
HOU +15
WVU run
WVU line #79WVU backs #2
WVU +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Weigman
Shadre Hurst
vs
Harper Holloman
LT · HOU
EDGE · WVU
80.2
86.1
WVU +6
when WVU runs
Cam Cook
vs
Brandon Mack II
RB · WVU
MLB · HOU
82.0
78.1
WVU +4
when WVU throws
John Neider
vs
Will James
X · WVU
CB1 · HOU
66.6
88.9
HOU +22
when HOU throws
Amare Thomas
vs
Kamari Wilson
X · HOU
CB1 · WVU
69.4
71.8
dead even
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Cam Griffin
vs
Khalil Laufau
LT · WVU
EDGE · HOU
63.6
71.6
HOU +8
when HOU runs
Makhi Hughes
vs
Ben Cutter
RB · HOU
MLB · WVU
51.8
75.6
WVU +24

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Houston
DBWill James
88.916/1427
LBBrandon Mack II
78.177/878
LBLatreveon McCutchin
75.4102/878
DBJamaal Shaw
73.3171/1427
DBJavion White
73.1175/1427
WRAmare Thomas
69.457/777

also out — L. McGary (TE), M. Tounkara (WR)

West Virginia
RBCam Cook
82.017/514
LBBen Cutter
75.6100/878
SKamari Wilson
71.8194/1427
WRJohn Neider
66.675/777
LBMalachi Hood
64.6220/878
QBScotty Fox Jr.
54.898/308

also out — Landon Drum (WR), Lawrence Autry (RB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Houston
opponent
West Virginia
home+17.5
Oklahoma State#97
+10.4home
away-13.1
Utah#16
-20.2away
home+5.6
Cincinnati#51
-1.5home
away-17.6
Texas Tech#5
-24.7away

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHOU +4.695% interval: -28.5 to 19.380% interval: -22 to 12.8-22+13HOU wins 62%WVU wins 38%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HOU 32–25 WVUWVU 21–56 HOU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWVU 25–53 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWVU 28–49 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWVU 32–46 HOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 35–42 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWVU 39–39 HOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWVU 42–35 HOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWVU 46–32 HOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWVU 49–28 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 18–53 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 21–49 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 25–46 HOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWVU 28–42 HOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWVU 32–39 HOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWVU 35–35 HOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 39–32 HOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWVU 42–28 HOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWVU 46–25 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 14–49 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 18–46 HOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWVU 21–42 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWVU 25–39 HOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 28–35 HOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWVU 32–32 HOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWVU 35–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWVU 39–25 HOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWVU 42–21 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 11–46 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 14–42 HOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWVU 18–39 HOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWVU 21–35 HOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWVU 25–32 HOU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWVU 28–28 HOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWVU 32–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWVU 35–21 HOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 39–18 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 7–42 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWVU 11–39 HOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWVU 14–35 HOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWVU 18–32 HOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWVU 21–28 HOU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWVU 25–25 HOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWVU 28–21 HOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWVU 32–18 HOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWVU 35–14 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 4–39 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 7–35 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWVU 11–32 HOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWVU 14–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWVU 18–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWVU 21–21 HOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWVU 25–18 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWVU 28–14 HOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWVU 32–11 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWVU 0–35 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWVU 4–32 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWVU 7–28 HOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWVU 11–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWVU 14–21 HOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWVU 18–18 HOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWVU 21–14 HOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWVU 25–11 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWVU 28–7 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalHOU +35HOU +21HOU +7WVU +7WVU +21margin →