CFB
Model
All rankings
Big 12

Baylor

Bears4-19th in Big 12
McLane Stadium · Waco, TX · 45,140
TeamCarried by the defense
OffenseBoom-or-bust · averageweak point: staying on schedule, 102nd
DefenseSmothering · elite

The season

Best win
W 55-19 @ #65 Arizona State
Wk 5 · Oct 3 · won as a 42% underdog
Worst loss
L 16-17 vs (N) #42 Auburn
Wk 1 · Sep 5 · model had 16%

Schedule

model 4/5 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    vsAuburnNeutral
    L 16–17
    Win chance 16%Model margin -13.2Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsPrairie View A&M
    W 44–3
    Win chance 97%Model margin +26.3Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsLouisiana Tech
    W 36–19
    Win chance 74%Model margin +8.6Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsColorado
    W 23–13
    Win chance 72%Model margin +7.7Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    atArizona State
    W 55–19
    Win chance 42%Model margin -2.7Game details
  6. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsTCU
    Win chance 52%Model margin +0.7Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atKansas
    Win chance 58%Model margin +2.7Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 30
    atUCF
    Win chance 48%Model margin -0.6Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsIowa State
    Win chance 54%Model margin +1.2Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atBYU
    Win chance 24%Model margin -9.8Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsTexas Tech
    Win chance 16%Model margin -13.7Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atHouston
    Win chance 35%Model margin -5.2Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
55
#57 of 138
Defense efficiency
92
#6 of 138
Efficiency
#680.16
EPA / play
#7-0.10
#620.25
Pass
#200.00
#700.11
Rush
#2-0.23
#10240%
Success
#1334%
Big plays & havoc
#151.37
Explosive
#141.08
#7915%
Havoc
#1520%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB81st
RB28th
WR53rd
TE31st
OL117th
DL63rd
LB18th
DB4th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Nate BennettJR
568 yds · 5 TD · 2 INT
75.6
109th QB
RB
Ryelan MorrisFR
182 yds · 1 TD · 8.3 YPC
84.7
41st RB
WR
Gavin FreemanSR
42 rec · 479 yds · 2 TD
75.8
113th WR
WR
London SmithFR
— rec · — yds · — TD
72.9
171st WR
TE
Hawkins PolleySR
6 rec · 73 yds · 1 TD
77.4
37th TE
Defense
LB
Kaleb ArterberrySO
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
83.6
52nd LB
LB
JJ SheltonSO
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
82.3
62nd LB
S
Micah GiffordSR
27 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
90.3
8th DB
S
Bo OnuSO
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
81.8
42nd DB
S
Daniel CobbsSR
16 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
77.7
103rd DB

Injury report

2 out
out
Taz Williams Jr.WR

Williams who is dealing with a collarbone injury, and he will miss an extended period.

56.908-21
out
Cole ReddingS

Redding has been out of commission due to knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

—09-05
Ques.
Ashton JonesWR

Jones is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Arizona St. on Saturday, October 3rd.

54.5202509-26

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsTCU
    Playoff chance if win
    2.2%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.5%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atKansas
    Playoff chance if win
    2.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  3. Week 9 · Oct 30
    atUCF
    Playoff chance if win
    2.4%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  4. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsIowa State
    Playoff chance if win
    2.2%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  5. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atBYU
    Playoff chance if win
    3.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.5%
  6. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsTexas Tech
    Playoff chance if win
    5.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  7. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atHouston
    Playoff chance if win
    2.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.6%

Past seasons

Year by year
-6.5 points since 2022
405365789070.2202257.2202370.6202463.82025
2022 70.22023 57.22024 70.62025 63.8

2025

5-7
D-I rank
#57
Rating
63.8
Listed games · 12
LWWLWWLLWLLL
373 pts scored391 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs AuburnL 24–38
  2. W2 at SMUW 48–45
  3. W3 vs SamfordW 42–7
  4. W4 vs Arizona StateL 24–27
  5. W5 at Oklahoma StateW 45–27
  6. W6 vs Kansas StateW 35–34
  7. W8 at TCUL 36–42
  8. W9 at CincinnatiL 20–41
  9. W10 vs UCFW 30–3
  10. W12 vs UtahL 28–55
  11. W13 at ArizonaL 17–41
  12. W14 vs HoustonL 24–31

2024

8-4
D-I rank
#27
Rating
70.6
Listed games · 12
WLWLLLWWWWWW
416 pts scored303 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Tarleton StateW 45–3
  2. W2 at UtahL 12–23
  3. W3 vs Air ForceW 31–3
  4. W4 at ColoradoL 31–38
  5. W5 vs BYUL 28–34
  6. W6 at Iowa StateL 21–43
  7. W8 at Texas TechW 59–35
  8. W9 vs Oklahoma StateW 38–28
  9. W10 vs TCUW 37–34
  10. W12 at West VirginiaW 49–35
  11. W13 at HoustonW 20–10
  12. W14 vs KansasW 45–17

2023

3-9
D-I rank
#76
Rating
57.2
Listed games · 12
LLWLWLWLLLLL
277 pts scored400 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Texas StateL 31–42
  2. W2 vs UtahL 13–20
  3. W3 vs Long Island UniversityW 30–7
  4. W4 vs TexasL 6–38
  5. W5 at UCFW 36–35
  6. W6 vs Texas TechL 14–39
  7. W8 at CincinnatiW 32–29
  8. W9 vs Iowa StateL 18–30
  9. W10 vs HoustonL 24–25
  10. W11 at Kansas StateL 25–59
  11. W12 at TCUL 17–42
  12. W13 vs West VirginiaL 31–34

2022

6-6
D-I rank
#25
Rating
70.2
Listed games · 12
WLWWLLWWWLLL
403 pts scored319 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs UAlbanyW 69–10
  2. W2 at BYUL 20–26
  3. W3 vs Texas StateW 42–7
  4. W4 at Iowa StateW 31–24
  5. W5 vs Oklahoma StateL 25–36
  6. W7 at West VirginiaL 40–43
  7. W8 vs KansasW 35–23
  8. W9 at Texas TechW 45–17
  9. W10 at OklahomaW 38–35
  10. W11 vs Kansas StateL 3–31
  11. W12 vs TCUL 28–29
  12. W13 at TexasL 27–38