Passing
BAY offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BAY offense
- #62
- ASU defense
- #65
EPA comparison
0.25
#62
0.12
#65
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 10:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
BAY 44.6%55.4% ASU
- Projected margin
- ASU by 2.7
- Projected total
- 52
- 80% outcome range
- BAY 20 to ASU 25
- Win probability
- ASU 55.4%
FinalBAY 55 · ASU 19model had +2.7, off by 38.7
Current team profiles
Baylor
Arizona StateWhen Baylor has the ball
Rushing
BAY offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BAY offense
- #70
- ASU defense
- #84
EPA comparison
0.11
#70
0.07
#84
Rush EPA
Drive success
ASU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BAY offense
- #102
- ASU defense
- #49
Success rates
40%
#102
38%
#49
Success rate
More metrics
0.16
#68
0.09
#87
EPA / play
1.37
#15
1.31
#105
Explosiveness
15%
#79
15%
#90
Havoc
When Arizona State has the ball
Passing
BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BAY defense
- #20
- ASU offense
- #84
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.16
#84
Pass EPA
Rushing
BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BAY defense
- #2
- ASU offense
- #88
EPA comparison
-0.23
#2
0.06
#88
Rush EPA
Drive success
BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BAY defense
- #13
- ASU offense
- #67
Success rates
34%
#13
44%
#67
Success rate
More metrics
-0.10
#7
0.07
#98
EPA / play
1.08
#14
1.21
#86
Explosiveness
20%
#15
16%
#88
Havoc
Current key players
BaylorQBNate Bennett
568 yds · 5 TD · 2 INT
75.6109/729
SMicah Gifford
27 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 92.4
- Coverage
- 85.9
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 61
- Passer rating allowed
- 77.1
- Missed tackles
- 2
90.38/2969
RBRyelan Morris
182 yds · 1 TD · 8.3 YPC
84.741/1044
LBKaleb Arterberry
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.4
- Coverage
- 73.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
83.652/1796
LBJJ Shelton
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 60.0
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 1
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
82.362/1796
SBo Onu
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 49.7
- Coverage
- 82.9
- Targets allowed
- 14
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 35
- Passer rating allowed
- 68.2
- Missed tackles
- 2
81.842/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Taz Williams Jr. · WRout · 2026-08-21
Williams who is dealing with a collarbone injury, and he will miss an extended period.
- Cole Redding · Sout · 2026-09-05
Redding has been out of commission due to knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Ashton Jones · WRQues. · 2026-09-26
Jones is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Arizona St. on Saturday, October 3rd.
Arizona StateQBCutter Boley
1040 yds · 10 TD · 3 INT
78.286/729
WRReed Harris
26 rec · 499 yds · 5 TD
88.012/2069
LBIsaiah Iosefa
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.8
- Coverage
- 71.1
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
82.361/1796
RBDemarius Robinson
27 yds · 0 TD · 6.8 YPC
80.571/1044
DBCaleb Chester
9 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.0
- Coverage
- 77.8
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 34
- Passer rating allowed
- 86.9
- Missed tackles
- 1
79.176/2969
DBLyrik Rawls
11 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 72.5
- Coverage
- 79.6
- Targets allowed
- 9
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 87
- Passer rating allowed
- 95.4
- Missed tackles
- 2
75.9162/2969
Availability reports · 6
- Lyrik Rawls · CBout · 2026-10-07
Rawls is managing with a leg injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Khamari Anderson · TEout · 2026-09-21
Anderson is sidelined with a leg injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Wade Helton · OGout · 2026-09-18
Helton is sidelined with a leg injury, and he will miss an extended period.
- Zyrus Fiaseu · LBout · 2026-08-25
Fiaseu is sidelined with a knee injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Grayson Rigdon · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Rigdon is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Raiders on Saturday, October
- Harry Hassmann · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Hassmann is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Raiders on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
BAYBaylor
ASUArizona State
vs
Offense
75.6
#81 of 138
QB
Quarterback
78.2
#67 of 138
81.3
#28 of 138
RB
Running backs
78.6
#43 of 138
72.4
#53 of 138
WR
Receivers
72.8
#51 of 138
77.4
#31 of 138
TE
Tight ends
60.5
#114 of 138
62.7
#117 of 138
OL
Offensive line
70.2
#52 of 138
Defense
74.1
#63 of 138
DL
Defensive line
76.2
#44 of 138
80.5
#18 of 138
LB
Linebackers
72.0
#88 of 138
79.2
#4 of 138
DB
Secondary
73.3
#53 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Baylor
opponent
Arizona State
Hhome-13.7
TTUTexas Tech#10-22.2Aaway
Aaway+2.7
KUKansas#31+7.0Nneutral
Aaway-0.6
UCFUCF#48-3.8Aaway
Aaway-9.8
BYUBYU#18-13.0Aaway
Hhome+10.0
COLOColorado#84+9.6Hhome