AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#42Away
Baylor
0-0 · AVR 57.5
29p
#43Home
Arizona State
0-0 · AVR 57.5
30p
BAY 47%53% ASU
Spread
ASU -1.1
Total
58
Moneyline
BAY+112ASU-112
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BAY advantageevenASU advantage →
BAY throw
BAY WR #108BAY protection #16
ASU +28
BAY run
BAY +11
ASU throw
ASU WR #16ASU protection #115
BAY +16
ASU run
BAY +57

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Lagway
Alessandro Lorenzetti
vs
Jalen Thompson
LT · BAY
EDGE · ASU
81.7
75.2
BAY +7
when ASU throws
Omarion Miller
vs
Devon Jordan
X · ASU
CB1 · BAY
73.4
74.5
dead even
when BAY throws
Jadon Porter
vs
Ashton Stamps
X · BAY
CB1 · ASU
47.8
85.2
ASU +37
when BAY runs
Caden Knighten
vs
Martell Hughes
RB · BAY
MLB · ASU
64.7
67.7
ASU +3
when ASU runs
Demarius Robinson
vs
Garrick Ponder
RB · ASU
MLB · BAY
47.5
74.3
BAY +27
over the middle
Matthew Klopfenstein
vs
Rodney Bimage Jr.
TE · BAY
FS · ASU
48.5
70.2
ASU +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Baylor
CBDevon Jordan
74.5159/1427
LBGarrick Ponder
74.3112/878
LBRyan Davis
71.5126/878
CBStilton McKelvey
71.5203/1427
SDaniel Cobbs
70.8213/1427
RBCaden Knighten
64.776/514

also out — T. Williams Jr. (WR)

Arizona State
DBAshton Stamps
85.243/1427
DBJessiah McGrew
78.0115/1427
WROmarion Miller
73.438/777
SAdrian Wilson
73.3172/1427
WRRaiden Vines-Bright
70.951/777
LBMartell Hughes
67.7182/878

also out — key defensive lineman (DL), Nigel Pringle (CB), Z. Fiaseu (LB)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Baylor
opponent
Arizona State
home-13.0
Texas Tech#5
-19.4away
home+11.1
Colorado#74
+9.7home
away-11.4
BYU#19
-12.8away
away+1.3
UCF#52
-0.1away
away-1.1
Kansas#50
0.0neutral

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKASU +1.195% interval: -22.8 to 2580% interval: -16.3 to 18.5-16+19BAY wins 47%ASU wins 53%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ASU 28–28 BAYASU 25–53 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 28–49 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesASU 32–46 BAY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesASU 35–42 BAY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesASU 39–39 BAY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesASU 42–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesASU 46–32 BAY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesASU 49–28 BAY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesASU 53–25 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 21–49 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 25–46 BAY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesASU 28–42 BAY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesASU 32–39 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesASU 35–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesASU 39–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesASU 42–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesASU 46–25 BAY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesASU 49–21 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 18–46 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 21–42 BAY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesASU 25–39 BAY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesASU 28–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesASU 32–32 BAY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesASU 35–28 BAY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesASU 39–25 BAY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesASU 42–21 BAY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesASU 46–18 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesASU 14–42 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 18–39 BAY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesASU 21–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesASU 25–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesASU 28–28 BAY neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesASU 32–25 BAY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesASU 35–21 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesASU 39–18 BAY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesASU 42–14 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesASU 11–39 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 14–35 BAY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesASU 18–32 BAY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesASU 21–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesASU 25–25 BAY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesASU 28–21 BAY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesASU 32–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesASU 35–14 BAY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesASU 39–11 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesASU 7–35 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 11–32 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesASU 14–28 BAY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesASU 18–25 BAY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesASU 21–21 BAY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesASU 25–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesASU 28–14 BAY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesASU 32–11 BAY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesASU 35–7 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 4–32 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 7–28 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesASU 11–25 BAY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesASU 14–21 BAY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesASU 18–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesASU 21–14 BAY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesASU 25–11 BAY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesASU 28–7 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesASU 32–4 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalBAY +28BAY +14PKASU +14ASU +28margin →