AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
Bluebonnet Shield
#32Away
TCU
0-1 · AVR 61.0
31p
#42Home
Baylor
0-0 · AVR 57.5
31p
TCU 49%51% BAY
Spread
BAY -0.2
Total
62
Moneyline
TCU+103BAY-103
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TCU advantageevenBAY advantage →
TCU throw
TCU protection #62
even
TCU run
BAY +9
BAY throw
BAY WR #108BAY protection #16
even
BAY run
BAY +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TCU throws
Jordan Dwyer
vs
Devon Jordan
X · TCU
CB1 · BAY
84.9
74.5
TCU +10
off the edge· hunting Lagway
Alessandro Lorenzetti
vs
Ansel Din-Mbuh
LT · BAY
EDGE · TCU
81.7
66.8
BAY +15
when TCU runs
Jeremy Payne
vs
Garrick Ponder
RB · TCU
MLB · BAY
73.4
74.3
dead even
when BAY runs
Caden Knighten
vs
Paul Oyewale
RB · BAY
MLB · TCU
64.7
75.3
TCU +11
when BAY throws
Jadon Porter
vs
Kalen Carroll
X · BAY
CB1 · TCU
47.8
86.7
TCU +39
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Cade Bennett
vs
Hosea Wheeler
LT · TCU
EDGE · BAY
51.8
79.0
BAY +27

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
TCU
CBKalen Carroll
86.732/1427
WRJordan Dwyer
84.914/777
LBPaul Oyewale
75.3105/878
RBJeremy Payne
73.443/514
LBZach Chapmanprobable
69.9145/878
SRyan Yaites
65.2350/1427

also out — Jacob Fields (S), D. Ezukanma (WR)

Baylor
CBDevon Jordan
74.5159/1427
LBGarrick Ponder
74.3112/878
LBRyan Davis
71.5126/878
CBStilton McKelvey
71.5203/1427
SDaniel Cobbs
70.8213/1427
RBCaden Knighten
64.776/514

also out — T. Williams Jr. (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
TCU
opponent
Baylor
home-4.1
BYU#19
-11.4away
home+6.2
Kansas#50
-1.1away
away-15.7
Texas Tech#5
-13.0home
away+3.6
UCF#52
+1.3away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBAY +0.295% interval: -23.7 to 24.180% interval: -17.2 to 17.6-17+18TCU wins 49%BAY wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BAY 32–32 TCUBAY 28–56 TCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBAY 32–53 TCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBAY 35–49 TCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBAY 39–46 TCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBAY 42–42 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBAY 46–39 TCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBAY 49–35 TCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBAY 53–32 TCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBAY 56–28 TCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBAY 25–53 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 28–49 TCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBAY 32–46 TCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBAY 35–42 TCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBAY 39–39 TCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBAY 42–35 TCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBAY 46–32 TCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBAY 49–28 TCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBAY 53–25 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 21–49 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 25–46 TCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBAY 28–42 TCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 32–39 TCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBAY 35–35 TCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBAY 39–32 TCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBAY 42–28 TCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 46–25 TCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBAY 49–21 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 18–46 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 21–42 TCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBAY 25–39 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBAY 28–35 TCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBAY 32–32 TCU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBAY 35–28 TCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBAY 39–25 TCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBAY 42–21 TCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBAY 46–18 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 14–42 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 18–39 TCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBAY 21–35 TCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 25–32 TCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBAY 28–28 TCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBAY 32–25 TCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBAY 35–21 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBAY 39–18 TCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBAY 42–14 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 11–39 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 14–35 TCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBAY 18–32 TCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBAY 21–28 TCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBAY 25–25 TCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBAY 28–21 TCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBAY 32–18 TCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBAY 35–14 TCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBAY 39–11 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 7–35 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 11–32 TCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBAY 14–28 TCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBAY 18–25 TCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 21–21 TCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBAY 25–18 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBAY 28–14 TCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBAY 32–11 TCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBAY 35–7 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalTCU +28TCU +14PKBAY +14BAY +28margin →