AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 8:00 PM
#94Away
Louisiana Tech
0-0 · AVR 42.0
21p
#42Home
Baylor
0-0 · AVR 57.5
36p
LT 15%85% BAY
Spread
BAY -14.8
Total
56
Moneyline
LT+549BAY-549
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LT advantageevenBAY advantage →
LT throw
BAY +29
LT run
BAY +12
BAY throw
BAY WR #108BAY protection #16
LT +19
BAY run
BAY +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Lagway
Alessandro Lorenzetti
vs
Judd Rouyea
LT · BAY
EDGE · LT
81.7
83.2
dead even
when BAY runs
Caden Knighten
vs
Jadon Mayfield
RB · BAY
MLB · LT
64.7
68.2
LT +3
off the edge· hunting Kukuk
Troy Smith III
vs
Hosea Wheeler
LT · LT
EDGE · BAY
53.7
79.0
BAY +25
when BAY throws
Jadon Porter
vs
Jaitlin Hampton
X · BAY
CB1 · LT
47.8
83.7
LT +36
when LT throws
Jalen Mickens
vs
Devon Jordan
X · LT
CB1 · BAY
44.3
74.5
BAY +30
over the middle
Matthew Klopfenstein
vs
Sam Fongang
TE · BAY
FS · LT
48.5
68.5
LT +20

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisiana Tech
DBJaitlin Hampton
83.760/1427
DBKam Franklin
75.3152/1427
DBJavari Lockhart
69.1261/1427
DBSam Fongang
68.5274/1427
LBJadon Mayfield
68.2175/878
LBAlonzo Jackson Jr.
61.2265/878
Baylor
CBDevon Jordan
74.5159/1427
LBGarrick Ponder
74.3112/878
LBRyan Davis
71.5126/878
CBStilton McKelvey
71.5203/1427
SDaniel Cobbs
70.8213/1427
RBCaden Knighten
64.776/514

also out — T. Williams Jr. (WR)

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBAY +14.895% interval: -9.1 to 38.780% interval: -2.6 to 32.2-3+32LT wins 15%BAY wins 85%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BAY 35–21 LTBAY 32–46 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBAY 35–42 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBAY 39–39 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBAY 42–35 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBAY 46–32 LT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBAY 49–28 LT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 53–25 LT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBAY 56–21 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBAY 60–18 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 28–42 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 32–39 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBAY 35–35 LT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBAY 39–32 LT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBAY 42–28 LT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBAY 46–25 LT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBAY 49–21 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBAY 53–18 LT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBAY 56–14 LT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 25–39 LT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 28–35 LT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBAY 32–32 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBAY 35–28 LT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBAY 39–25 LT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBAY 42–21 LT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBAY 46–18 LT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBAY 49–14 LT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBAY 53–11 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBAY 21–35 LT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 25–32 LT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBAY 28–28 LT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 32–25 LT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBAY 35–21 LT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBAY 39–18 LT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBAY 42–14 LT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBAY 46–11 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBAY 49–7 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBAY 18–32 LT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 21–28 LT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBAY 25–25 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBAY 28–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBAY 32–18 LT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBAY 35–14 LT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBAY 39–11 LT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBAY 42–7 LT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBAY 46–4 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBAY 14–28 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 18–25 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBAY 21–21 LT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBAY 25–18 LT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBAY 28–14 LT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBAY 32–11 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBAY 35–7 LT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBAY 39–4 LT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBAY 42–0 LT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 11–25 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBAY 14–21 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBAY 18–18 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBAY 21–14 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBAY 25–11 LT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBAY 28–7 LT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 32–4 LT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBAY 35–0 LT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalLT +14PKBAY +14BAY +28BAY +42margin →