CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET · neutral site
#81Away
Baylor
0-0 · AVR 55.4
16
Final
#34Home
Auburn
0-0 · AVR 63.1
17
Forecast win probability
BAY 20.5%79.5% AUB
Projected margin
AUB by 13.2
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
BAY 7 to AUB 34
Win probability
AUB 79.5%
FinalBAY 16 · AUB 17model had +13.2, off by 12.2

Current team profiles

Baylor
Auburn

When Baylor has the ball

Passing

AUB defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY offense
#62
AUB defense
#41
EPA comparison
0.25
#62
0.07
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

BAY offense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY offense
#70
AUB defense
#73
EPA comparison
0.11
#70
0.05
#73
Rush EPA

Drive success

AUB defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY offense
#102
AUB defense
#50
Success rates
40%
#102
38%
#50
Success rate
More metrics
0.16
#68
0.01
#44
EPA / play
1.37
#15
1.18
#45
Explosiveness
15%
#79
17%
#57
Havoc

When Auburn has the ball

Passing

BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY defense
#20
AUB offense
#119
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.04
#119
Pass EPA

Rushing

BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY defense
#2
AUB offense
#39
EPA comparison
-0.23
#2
0.18
#39
Rush EPA

Drive success

BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY defense
#13
AUB offense
#86
Success rates
34%
#13
42%
#86
Success rate
More metrics
-0.10
#7
0.07
#98
EPA / play
1.08
#14
1.26
#55
Explosiveness
20%
#15
16%
#102
Havoc

Current key players

Baylor
QBNate Bennett
568 yds · 5 TD · 2 INT
75.6109/729
SMicah Gifford
27 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
92.4
Coverage
85.9
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
61
Passer rating allowed
77.1
Missed tackles
2
90.38/2969
RBRyelan Morris
182 yds · 1 TD · 8.3 YPC
84.741/1044
LBKaleb Arterberry
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.4
Coverage
73.3
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
83.652/1796
LBJJ Shelton
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
60.0
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.362/1796
SBo Onu
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
49.7
Coverage
82.9
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
35
Passer rating allowed
68.2
Missed tackles
2
81.842/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Taz Williams Jr. · WRout · 2026-08-21

    Williams who is dealing with a collarbone injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Cole Redding · Sout · 2026-09-05

    Redding has been out of commission due to knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Ashton Jones · WRQues. · 2026-09-26

    Jones is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Arizona St. on Saturday, October 3rd.

Auburn
QBByrum Brown
1052 yds · 7 TD · 7 INT
83.056/729
LBMichael Matthews-Canty
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.3
Coverage
72.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.447/1796
RBOmar Mabson II
213 yds · 1 TD · 6.5 YPC
77.0133/1044
LBXavier Atkins
37 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.8
Coverage
55.6
Pressures
19
Pass-rush snaps
57
Missed tackles
10
Forced fumbles
0
75.1180/1796
SSylvester Smith-Reed
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.1
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
48
Passer rating allowed
32.6
Missed tackles
2
72.5302/2969
WRKeshaun Singleton
29 rec · 322 yds · 1 TD
71.2220/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Nykahi Davenport · RBout · 2026-09-20

    Davenport is managing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no time table for his return.

  • Hunter Herring · TEQues. · 2026-09-20

    Herring is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be available against Commodores on Saturday, September 26th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BAY
AUB
vs
Offense
75.6
#81 of 138
QB
83.0
#49 of 138
81.3
#28 of 138
RB
73.9
#83 of 138
72.4
#53 of 138
WR
68.1
#106 of 138
77.4
#31 of 138
TE
63.5
#100 of 138
62.7
#117 of 138
OL
63.8
#105 of 138
Defense
74.1
#63 of 138
DL
69.2
#115 of 138
80.5
#18 of 138
LB
78.2
#35 of 138
79.2
#4 of 138
DB
66.7
#131 of 138
Common opponents