AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 3:30 PM · neutral site
#42Away
Baylor
0-0 · AVR 57.5
23p
#31Home
Auburn
0-0 · AVR 62.1
36p
BAY 15%85% AUB
Spread
AUB -13.1
Total
60
Moneyline
BAY+579AUB-579
Against the market
AUB +6.1line AUB -7.0

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BAY advantageevenAUB advantage →
BAY throw
BAY WR #108BAY protection #16
AUB +10
BAY run
AUB +15
AUB throw
AUB protection #51
AUB +16
AUB run
AUB +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Lagway
Alessandro Lorenzetti
vs
Cody Sigler
LT · BAY
EDGE · AUB
81.7
92.0
AUB +10
when AUB throws
Keshaun Singleton
vs
Devon Jordan
X · AUB
CB1 · BAY
86.7
74.5
AUB +12
when BAY runs
Caden Knighten
vs
Xavier Atkins
RB · BAY
MLB · AUB
64.7
93.4
AUB +29
when AUB runs
Jeremiah Cobb
vs
Garrick Ponder
RB · AUB
MLB · BAY
78.7
74.3
AUB +4
over the middle
Jonathan Echols
vs
Jacob Redding
TE · AUB
FS · BAY
67.1
66.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Brown
Jacob Strand
vs
Hosea Wheeler
LT · AUB
EDGE · BAY
53.1
79.0
BAY +26

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Baylor
CBDevon Jordan
74.5159/1427
LBGarrick Ponder
74.3112/878
LBRyan Davis
71.5126/878
CBStilton McKelvey
71.5203/1427
SDaniel Cobbs
70.8213/1427
RBCaden Knighten
64.776/514

also out — T. Williams Jr. (WR)

Auburn
LBXavier Atkins
93.44/878
WRKeshaun Singleton
86.79/777
WRJeremiah Koger
83.116/777
QBByrum Brown
81.319/308
RBJeremiah Cobb
78.729/514
LBColeman Granberry
78.082/878

also out — Fly, Tai Buster (OL), tight end (TE), Auburn Linebacker Likely, Auburn edge rusher (DL), Auburn linebacker (LB), J.J. Faulk (EDGE), Auburn RB (RB) +3 more

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAUB +13.1MKT95% interval: -14 to 4580% interval: -3 to 35-3+35BAY wins 15%AUB wins 85%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AUB 39–25 BAYAUB 35–49 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 39–46 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAUB 42–42 BAY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 46–39 BAY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAUB 49–35 BAY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 53–32 BAY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAUB 56–28 BAY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAUB 60–25 BAY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 63–21 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAUB 32–46 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 35–42 BAY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAUB 39–39 BAY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAUB 42–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 46–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAUB 49–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAUB 53–25 BAY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAUB 56–21 BAY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 60–18 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 28–42 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 32–39 BAY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 35–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAUB 39–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAUB 42–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAUB 46–25 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAUB 49–21 BAY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAUB 53–18 BAY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAUB 56–14 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 25–39 BAY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 28–35 BAY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAUB 32–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 35–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAUB 39–25 BAY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAUB 42–21 BAY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 46–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAUB 49–14 BAY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAUB 53–11 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 21–35 BAY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 25–32 BAY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAUB 28–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 32–25 BAY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAUB 35–21 BAY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAUB 39–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 42–14 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAUB 46–11 BAY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAUB 49–7 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 18–32 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 21–28 BAY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 25–25 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAUB 28–21 BAY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAUB 32–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAUB 35–14 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAUB 39–11 BAY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAUB 42–7 BAY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAUB 46–4 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 14–28 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 18–25 BAY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAUB 21–21 BAY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAUB 25–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 28–14 BAY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAUB 32–11 BAY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAUB 35–7 BAY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAUB 39–4 BAY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 42–0 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalBAY +14PKAUB +14AUB +28AUB +42margin →