CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
BAY 57.3%42.7% KU
Projected margin
BAY by 2.7
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
BAY 21 to KU 16
Win probability
BAY 57.3%

Current team profiles

Baylor
Kansas

When Baylor has the ball

Passing

BAY offense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY offense
#62
KU defense
#71
EPA comparison
0.25
#62
0.15
#71
Pass EPA

Rushing

KU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY offense
#70
KU defense
#27
EPA comparison
0.11
#70
-0.07
#27
Rush EPA

Drive success

KU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY offense
#102
KU defense
#20
Success rates
40%
#102
35%
#20
Success rate
More metrics
0.16
#68
-0.03
#30
EPA / play
1.37
#15
1.27
#92
Explosiveness
15%
#79
20%
#19
Havoc

When Kansas has the ball

Passing

BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY defense
#20
KU offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.27
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY defense
#2
KU offense
#19
EPA comparison
-0.23
#2
0.24
#19
Rush EPA

Drive success

BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY defense
#13
KU offense
#28
Success rates
34%
#13
48%
#28
Success rate
More metrics
-0.10
#7
0.25
#28
EPA / play
1.08
#14
1.34
#20
Explosiveness
20%
#15
14%
#60
Havoc

Current key players

Baylor
QBNate Bennett
568 yds · 5 TD · 2 INT
75.6109/729
SMicah Gifford
27 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
92.4
Coverage
85.9
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
61
Passer rating allowed
77.1
Missed tackles
2
90.38/2969
RBRyelan Morris
182 yds · 1 TD · 8.3 YPC
84.741/1044
LBKaleb Arterberry
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.4
Coverage
73.3
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
83.652/1796
LBJJ Shelton
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
60.0
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.362/1796
SBo Onu
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
49.7
Coverage
82.9
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
35
Passer rating allowed
68.2
Missed tackles
2
81.842/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Taz Williams Jr. · WRout · 2026-08-21

    Williams who is dealing with a collarbone injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Cole Redding · Sout · 2026-09-05

    Redding has been out of commission due to knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Ashton Jones · WRQues. · 2026-09-26

    Jones is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Arizona St. on Saturday, October 3rd.

Kansas
QBChase Jenkins
65 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
93.31/729
LBJaron Willis
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.8
Coverage
71.6
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.330/1796
WRNik McMillan
14 rec · 256 yds · 2 TD
85.324/2069
LBTrey Lathan
22 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.1
Coverage
83.7
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
9
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
83.554/1796
TEJack Utz
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
84.2
Penalties
0
77.934/1017
RBJalen Dupree
103 yds · 2 TD · 4.9 YPC
77.8120/1044
Availability reports · 7
  • Cole Ballard · QBout · 2026-10-02

    Ballard is dealing with a shoulder injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Yasin Willis · RBout · 2026-09-28

    Willis has been out of the lineup with an foot injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Justin Thurman · RBout · 2026-08-11

    Thurman has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kory Amachree · RBout · 2026-10-02

    Amachree is expected to miss the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Jaylen Mason · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mason is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jailen Butler · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Butler exited the game with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Wildcats on Saturday, October

  • Carter Moses · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Moses is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BAY
KU
vs
Offense
75.6
#81 of 138
QB
93.3
#1 of 138
81.3
#28 of 138
RB
76.8
#57 of 138
72.4
#53 of 138
WR
78.9
#15 of 138
77.4
#31 of 138
TE
77.9
#30 of 138
62.7
#117 of 138
OL
77.5
#8 of 138
Defense
74.1
#63 of 138
DL
89.4
#1 of 138
80.5
#18 of 138
LB
83.2
#10 of 138
79.2
#4 of 138
DB
72.4
#66 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Baylor
opponent
Kansas
A+36.0
ASU#65
-7.0N
H+0.7
TCU#36
-10.0A
A-0.6
UCF#48
-0.7H
A-9.8
BYU#18
-9.8H