AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#42Away
Baylor
0-0 · AVR 57.5
29p
#50Home
Kansas
0-0 · AVR 55.4
31p
BAY 46%54% KU
Spread
KU -1.1
Total
60
Moneyline
BAY+116KU-116
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BAY advantageevenKU advantage →
BAY throw
BAY WR #108BAY protection #16
even
BAY run
even
KU throw
KU QB #95KU protection #1
BAY +11
KU run
KU backs #63
KU +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Marshall
James Livingston
vs
Hosea Wheeler
LT · KU
EDGE · BAY
96.9
79.0
KU +18
off the edge· hunting Lagway
Alessandro Lorenzetti
vs
Blake Herold
LT · BAY
EDGE · KU
81.7
82.8
dead even
when BAY runs
Caden Knighten
vs
Jibreel Al-Amin
RB · BAY
MLB · KU
64.7
78.3
KU +14
when KU throws
Cam Pickett
vs
Devon Jordan
X · KU
CB1 · BAY
68.5
74.5
BAY +6
when KU runs
Yasin Willis
vs
Garrick Ponder
RB · KU
MLB · BAY
59.9
74.3
BAY +14
over the middle
Leyton Cure
vs
Jacob Redding
TE · KU
FS · BAY
60.0
66.5
BAY +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Baylor
CBDevon Jordan
74.5159/1427
LBGarrick Ponder
74.3112/878
LBRyan Davis
71.5126/878
CBStilton McKelvey
71.5203/1427
SDaniel Cobbs
70.8213/1427
RBCaden Knighten
64.776/514

also out — T. Williams Jr. (WR)

Kansas
LBJibreel Al-Amin
78.376/878
LBTrey Lathan
75.4103/878
WRCam Pickettquestionable
68.561/777
CBJalen Todd
67.8284/1427
SCorey Gordon
66.4323/1427
TELeyton Cure
60.053/287

also out — J. Thurman (RB), Tre'von McAlpine (DL)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Baylor
opponent
Kansas
home+0.2
TCU#32
-6.2away
away+1.3
UCF#52
+4.9home
away-11.4
BYU#19
-7.9home
away-1.1
Arizona State#43
0.0neutral

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKU +1.195% interval: -22.8 to 2580% interval: -16.3 to 18.5-16+19BAY wins 46%KU wins 54%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KU 32–32 BAYKU 28–56 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKU 32–53 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 35–49 BAY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 39–46 BAY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKU 42–42 BAY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 46–39 BAY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 49–35 BAY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 53–32 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKU 56–28 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 25–53 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKU 28–49 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKU 32–46 BAY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKU 35–42 BAY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKU 39–39 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKU 42–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKU 46–32 BAY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKU 49–28 BAY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 53–25 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 21–49 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 25–46 BAY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 28–42 BAY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 32–39 BAY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKU 35–35 BAY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKU 39–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKU 42–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 46–25 BAY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKU 49–21 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 18–46 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 21–42 BAY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 25–39 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 28–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKU 32–32 BAY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKU 35–28 BAY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKU 39–25 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKU 42–21 BAY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 46–18 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 14–42 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 18–39 BAY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 21–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 25–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKU 28–28 BAY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKU 32–25 BAY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKU 35–21 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKU 39–18 BAY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 42–14 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 11–39 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 14–35 BAY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 18–32 BAY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 21–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKU 25–25 BAY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKU 28–21 BAY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKU 32–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 35–14 BAY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKU 39–11 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 7–35 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKU 11–32 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKU 14–28 BAY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKU 18–25 BAY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 21–21 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKU 25–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKU 28–14 BAY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKU 32–11 BAY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 35–7 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalBAY +28BAY +14PKKU +14KU +28margin →