AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#42Away
Baylor
0-0 · AVR 57.5
24p
#19Home
BYU
0-0 · AVR 69.1
35p
BAY 21%79% BYU
Spread
BYU -11.4
Total
59
Moneyline
BAY+371BYU-371
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BAY advantageevenBYU advantage →
BAY throw
BAY WR #108BAY protection #16
BYU +19
BAY run
BAY +7
BYU throw
BYU WR #81
BYU +9
BYU run
BYU +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bachmeier
Bruce Mitchell
vs
Hosea Wheeler
LT · BYU
EDGE · BAY
88.8
79.0
BYU +10
when BYU runs
LJ Martin
vs
Garrick Ponder
RB · BYU
MLB · BAY
84.9
74.3
BYU +11
off the edge· hunting Lagway
Alessandro Lorenzetti
vs
Keanu Tanuvasa
LT · BAY
EDGE · BYU
81.7
67.4
BAY +14
when BAY runs
Caden Knighten
vs
Isaiah Glasker
RB · BAY
MLB · BYU
64.7
84.3
BYU +20
over the middle
Walker Lyons
vs
Jacob Redding
TE · BYU
FS · BAY
68.0
66.5
dead even
when BAY throws
Jadon Porter
vs
Evan Johnson
X · BAY
CB1 · BYU
47.8
85.7
BYU +38

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Baylor
CBDevon Jordan
74.5159/1427
LBGarrick Ponder
74.3112/878
LBRyan Davis
71.5126/878
CBStilton McKelvey
71.5203/1427
SDaniel Cobbs
70.8213/1427
RBCaden Knighten
64.776/514

also out — T. Williams Jr. (WR)

BYU
QBBear Bachmeier
96.72/308
CBEvan Johnson
85.737/1427
SFaletau Satualaprobable
85.640/1427
RBLJ Martin
84.96/514
LBIsaiah Glasker
84.325/878
CBTherrian Alexander III
79.792/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Baylor
opponent
BYU
away-1.1
Arizona State#43
+12.8home
away-1.1
Kansas#50
+7.9away
home+4.7
Iowa State#56
+13.7home
away+1.3
UCF#52
+10.2away
home+0.2
TCU#32
+4.1away

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBYU +11.495% interval: -12.5 to 35.480% interval: -5.9 to 28.8-6+29BAY wins 21%BYU wins 79%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BYU 35–21 BAYBYU 32–46 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 35–42 BAY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 39–39 BAY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBYU 42–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBYU 46–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBYU 49–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 53–25 BAY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBYU 56–21 BAY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBYU 60–18 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBYU 28–42 BAY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBYU 32–39 BAY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBYU 35–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBYU 39–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 42–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 46–25 BAY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBYU 49–21 BAY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBYU 53–18 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBYU 56–14 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBYU 25–39 BAY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBYU 28–35 BAY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBYU 32–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBYU 35–28 BAY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBYU 39–25 BAY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBYU 42–21 BAY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBYU 46–18 BAY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBYU 49–14 BAY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBYU 53–11 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 21–35 BAY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBYU 25–32 BAY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBYU 28–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBYU 32–25 BAY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBYU 35–21 BAY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBYU 39–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBYU 42–14 BAY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBYU 46–11 BAY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBYU 49–7 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 18–32 BAY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBYU 21–28 BAY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBYU 25–25 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBYU 28–21 BAY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBYU 32–18 BAY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBYU 35–14 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBYU 39–11 BAY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBYU 42–7 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBYU 46–4 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBYU 14–28 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 18–25 BAY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 21–21 BAY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 25–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBYU 28–14 BAY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBYU 32–11 BAY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBYU 35–7 BAY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBYU 39–4 BAY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBYU 42–0 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBYU 11–25 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 14–21 BAY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBYU 18–18 BAY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBYU 21–14 BAY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 25–11 BAY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 28–7 BAY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBYU 32–4 BAY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 35–0 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalBAY +14PKBYU +14BYU +28BYU +42margin →