CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
BAY 25.9%74.1% BYU
Projected margin
BYU by 9.8
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
BAY 9 to BYU 28
Win probability
BYU 74.1%

Current team profiles

Baylor
BYU

When Baylor has the ball

Passing

BYU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY offense
#62
BYU defense
#16
EPA comparison
0.25
#62
-0.02
#16
Pass EPA

Rushing

BYU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY offense
#70
BYU defense
#18
EPA comparison
0.11
#70
-0.10
#18
Rush EPA

Drive success

BYU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY offense
#102
BYU defense
#32
Success rates
40%
#102
35%
#32
Success rate
More metrics
0.16
#68
-0.08
#13
EPA / play
1.37
#15
1.18
#48
Explosiveness
15%
#79
20%
#17
Havoc

When BYU has the ball

Passing

BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY defense
#20
BYU offense
#70
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.23
#70
Pass EPA

Rushing

BYU offense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY defense
#2
BYU offense
#1
EPA comparison
-0.23
#2
0.36
#1
Rush EPA

Drive success

BYU offense
Higher-ranked profile
BAY defense
#13
BYU offense
#7
Success rates
34%
#13
52%
#7
Success rate
More metrics
-0.10
#7
0.30
#16
EPA / play
1.08
#14
1.18
#96
Explosiveness
20%
#15
8%
#2
Havoc

Current key players

Baylor
QBNate Bennett
568 yds · 5 TD · 2 INT
75.6109/729
SMicah Gifford
27 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
92.4
Coverage
85.9
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
61
Passer rating allowed
77.1
Missed tackles
2
90.38/2969
RBRyelan Morris
182 yds · 1 TD · 8.3 YPC
84.741/1044
LBKaleb Arterberry
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.4
Coverage
73.3
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
83.652/1796
LBJJ Shelton
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
60.0
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.362/1796
SBo Onu
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
49.7
Coverage
82.9
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
35
Passer rating allowed
68.2
Missed tackles
2
81.842/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Taz Williams Jr. · WRout · 2026-08-21

    Williams who is dealing with a collarbone injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Cole Redding · Sout · 2026-09-05

    Redding has been out of commission due to knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Ashton Jones · WRQues. · 2026-09-26

    Jones is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Arizona St. on Saturday, October 3rd.

BYU
QBTreyson Bourguet
15 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
84.448/729
RBLJ Martin
344 yds · 3 TD · 7.8 YPC
87.223/1044
TEWalker Lyons
8 rec · 89 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
66.6
Run blocking
78.4
Penalties
0
80.922/1017
WRLegend Glasker
14 rec · 279 yds · 2 TD
80.553/2069
CBCannon DeVries
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.9
Coverage
74.7
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
77
Passer rating allowed
102.4
Missed tackles
0
77.1120/2969
LBCade Uluave
20 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
65.5
Coverage
75.7
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
76.9142/1796
Availability reports · 7
  • LJ Martin · RBout · 2026-10-07

    Martin is managing with an ankle injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Sione Moa · RBout · 2026-09-20

    Moa is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Raider Damuni · Sout · 2026-09-07

    Damuni is out of commission due to a lower body injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Siale Esera · LBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Esera is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will play against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October

  • Andrew Gentry · OGQues. · 2026-10-10

    Gentry is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Brody Laga · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Laga has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October 1

  • Jacob Nye · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Nye is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BAY
BYU
vs
Offense
75.6
#81 of 138
QB
84.4
#42 of 138
81.3
#28 of 138
RB
87.2
#6 of 138
72.4
#53 of 138
WR
73.0
#47 of 138
77.4
#31 of 138
TE
80.9
#22 of 138
62.7
#117 of 138
OL
80.6
#3 of 138
Defense
74.1
#63 of 138
DL
76.1
#46 of 138
80.5
#18 of 138
LB
74.5
#64 of 138
79.2
#4 of 138
DB
72.6
#62 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Baylor
opponent
BYU
A+36.0
ASU#65
+13.0H
H+1.2
ISU#56
+14.0H
A+2.7
KU#31
+9.8A
A-0.6
UCF#48
+6.5A
H+0.7
TCU#36
+7.0A