AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#56Away
Iowa State
0-0 · AVR 53.3
27p
#42Home
Baylor
0-0 · AVR 57.5
31p
ISU 37%63% BAY
Spread
BAY -4.7
Total
58
Moneyline
ISU+170BAY-170
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ISU advantageevenBAY advantage →
ISU throw
ISU protection #117
BAY +24
ISU run
BAY +52
BAY throw
BAY WR #108BAY protection #16
ISU +30
BAY run
ISU front #17ISU linebackers #135
BAY +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Lagway
Alessandro Lorenzetti
vs
Isaac Terrell
LT · BAY
EDGE · ISU
81.7
100.1
ISU +18
when ISU throws
Omari Hayes
vs
Devon Jordan
X · ISU
CB1 · BAY
63.8
74.5
BAY +11
when BAY throws
Jadon Porter
vs
Braden Awls
X · BAY
CB1 · ISU
47.8
85.6
ISU +38
when ISU runs
Arnold Barnes III
vs
Garrick Ponder
RB · ISU
MLB · BAY
50.9
74.3
BAY +23
over the middle
Matthew Klopfenstein
vs
Malcolm Jones
TE · BAY
FS · ISU
48.5
70.2
ISU +22
over the middle
Tyler Fortenberry
vs
Jacob Redding
TE · ISU
FS · BAY
49.9
66.5
BAY +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Iowa State
SBraden Awls
85.639/1427
CBBeni Ngoyi
81.376/1427
SDrew Surges
75.9142/1427
WROmari Hayes
63.890/777
QBJaylen Raynorprobable
60.367/308
RBArnold Barnes III
50.9267/514

also out — Matt Campbell

Baylor
CBDevon Jordan
74.5159/1427
LBGarrick Ponder
74.3112/878
LBRyan Davis
71.5126/878
CBStilton McKelvey
71.5203/1427
SDaniel Cobbs
70.8213/1427
RBCaden Knighten
64.776/514

also out — T. Williams Jr. (WR)

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Iowa State
opponent
Baylor
away-13.7
BYU#19
-11.4away
away-0.9
UCF#52
+1.3away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBAY +4.795% interval: -19.2 to 28.680% interval: -12.6 to 22.1-13+22ISU wins 37%BAY wins 63%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BAY 32–25 ISUBAY 28–49 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 32–46 ISU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBAY 35–42 ISU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBAY 39–39 ISU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBAY 42–35 ISU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBAY 46–32 ISU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBAY 49–28 ISU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBAY 53–25 ISU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBAY 56–21 ISU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBAY 25–46 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBAY 28–42 ISU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBAY 32–39 ISU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBAY 35–35 ISU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBAY 39–32 ISU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBAY 42–28 ISU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBAY 46–25 ISU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBAY 49–21 ISU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBAY 53–18 ISU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBAY 21–42 ISU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBAY 25–39 ISU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBAY 28–35 ISU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBAY 32–32 ISU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBAY 35–28 ISU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBAY 39–25 ISU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBAY 42–21 ISU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBAY 46–18 ISU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBAY 49–14 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 18–39 ISU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBAY 21–35 ISU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBAY 25–32 ISU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBAY 28–28 ISU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBAY 32–25 ISU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBAY 35–21 ISU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBAY 39–18 ISU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBAY 42–14 ISU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBAY 46–11 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 14–35 ISU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBAY 18–32 ISU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBAY 21–28 ISU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBAY 25–25 ISU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBAY 28–21 ISU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBAY 32–18 ISU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBAY 35–14 ISU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBAY 39–11 ISU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBAY 42–7 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 11–32 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBAY 14–28 ISU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBAY 18–25 ISU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBAY 21–21 ISU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBAY 25–18 ISU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBAY 28–14 ISU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBAY 32–11 ISU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBAY 35–7 ISU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBAY 39–4 ISU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBAY 7–28 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 11–25 ISU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBAY 14–21 ISU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBAY 18–18 ISU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBAY 21–14 ISU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 25–11 ISU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBAY 28–7 ISU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBAY 32–4 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBAY 35–0 ISU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalISU +21ISU +7BAY +7BAY +21BAY +35margin →