AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Fri Oct 30 · 11:30 PM
#42Away
Baylor
0-0 · AVR 57.5
30p
#52Home
UCF
0-0 · AVR 54.6
28p
BAY 53%47% UCF
Spread
BAY -1.3
Total
58
Moneyline
BAY-115UCF+115
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BAY advantageevenUCF advantage →
BAY throw
BAY WR #108BAY protection #16
UCF +17
BAY run
even
UCF throw
BAY +6
UCF run
BAY +51

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Lagway
Alessandro Lorenzetti
vs
Bruno Dall
LT · BAY
EDGE · UCF
81.7
95.8
UCF +14
when BAY runs
Caden Knighten
vs
Jahleel Culbreath
RB · BAY
MLB · UCF
64.7
80.2
UCF +15
when UCF throws
Jonathan Bibbs
vs
Devon Jordan
X · UCF
CB1 · BAY
65.7
74.5
BAY +9
when UCF runs
Duke Watson
vs
Garrick Ponder
RB · UCF
MLB · BAY
49.4
74.3
BAY +25
when BAY throws
Jadon Porter
vs
Jayden Bellamy
X · BAY
CB1 · UCF
47.8
74.2
UCF +26
over the middle
Dylan Wade
vs
Jacob Redding
TE · UCF
FS · BAY
53.4
66.5
BAY +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Baylor
CBDevon Jordan
74.5159/1427
LBGarrick Ponder
74.3112/878
LBRyan Davis
71.5126/878
CBStilton McKelvey
71.5203/1427
SDaniel Cobbs
70.8213/1427
RBCaden Knighten
64.776/514

also out — T. Williams Jr. (WR)

UCF
LBJahleel Culbreath
80.250/878
DBJayden Bellamy
74.2160/1427
DBDemari Henderson
72.5182/1427
LBLewis Carter
70.3139/878
DBCaleb Flagg
66.1333/1427
WRJonathan Bibbs
65.779/777

also out — L.A. Jessie Harrold (EDGE)

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Baylor
opponent
UCF
home+11.1
Colorado#74
+2.3away
home+0.2
TCU#32
-3.6home
away-1.1
Kansas#50
-4.9away
home+4.7
Iowa State#56
+0.9home
away-2.9
Houston#36
-6.7away
away-11.4
BYU#19
-10.2home
away-1.1
Arizona State#43
+0.1home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBAY +1.395% interval: -25.2 to 22.680% interval: -18.7 to 16.1-19+16BAY wins 53%UCF wins 47%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UCF 28–28 BAYUCF 25–53 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 28–49 BAY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCF 32–46 BAY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 35–42 BAY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 39–39 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCF 42–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCF 46–32 BAY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCF 49–28 BAY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCF 53–25 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 21–49 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 25–46 BAY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 28–42 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCF 32–39 BAY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCF 35–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCF 39–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCF 42–28 BAY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 46–25 BAY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCF 49–21 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 18–46 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 21–42 BAY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCF 25–39 BAY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 28–35 BAY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCF 32–32 BAY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCF 35–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCF 39–25 BAY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 42–21 BAY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCF 46–18 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 14–42 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 18–39 BAY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCF 21–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCF 25–32 BAY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCF 28–28 BAY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCF 32–25 BAY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCF 35–21 BAY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 39–18 BAY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCF 42–14 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 11–39 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 14–35 BAY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCF 18–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCF 21–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCF 25–25 BAY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCF 28–21 BAY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCF 32–18 BAY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCF 35–14 BAY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCF 39–11 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 7–35 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 11–32 BAY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCF 14–28 BAY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCF 18–25 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCF 21–21 BAY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCF 25–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCF 28–14 BAY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCF 32–11 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 35–7 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 4–32 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 7–28 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 11–25 BAY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCF 14–21 BAY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 18–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCF 21–14 BAY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 25–11 BAY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 28–7 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 32–4 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalBAY +28BAY +14PKUCF +14UCF +28margin →