CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
COLO 29.3%70.7% BAY
Projected margin
BAY by 7.7
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
COLO 13 to BAY 29
Win probability
BAY 70.7%
FinalCOLO 13 · BAY 23model had +7.7, off by 2.3

Current team profiles

Colorado
Baylor

When Colorado has the ball

Passing

BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
COLO offense
#108
BAY defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.09
#108
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
COLO offense
#132
BAY defense
#2
EPA comparison
-0.10
#132
-0.23
#2
Rush EPA

Drive success

BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
COLO offense
#107
BAY defense
#13
Success rates
40%
#107
34%
#13
Success rate
More metrics
-0.01
#125
-0.10
#7
EPA / play
1.17
#100
1.08
#14
Explosiveness
17%
#106
20%
#15
Havoc

When Baylor has the ball

Passing

BAY offense
Higher-ranked profile
COLO defense
#79
BAY offense
#62
EPA comparison
0.17
#79
0.25
#62
Pass EPA

Rushing

COLO defense
Higher-ranked profile
COLO defense
#12
BAY offense
#70
EPA comparison
-0.14
#12
0.11
#70
Rush EPA

Drive success

COLO defense
Higher-ranked profile
COLO defense
#37
BAY offense
#102
Success rates
37%
#37
40%
#102
Success rate
More metrics
-0.02
#34
0.16
#68
EPA / play
1.20
#57
1.37
#15
Explosiveness
21%
#13
15%
#79
Havoc

Current key players

Colorado
QBIsaac Wilson
443 yds · 2 TD · 3 INT
60.1271/729
DBJah Jah Boyd
12 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
86.0
Coverage
85.7
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
4
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
1
88.913/2969
RBTitus Bautista
7 yds · 0 TD · 7.0 YPC
83.745/1044
LBCarson Crawford
5 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
71.4
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
4
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
77.0141/1796
WRJoseph Williams
32 rec · 454 yds · 5 TD
76.993/2069
DBRJ Johnson
4 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.0
Coverage
79.2
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
76.2153/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Zach Atkins · TEout · 2026-10-02

    Atkins is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to face the Red Raiders on Saturday.

  • Danny Scudero · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Scudero is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to face the Red Raiders on Saturday.

  • Makari Vickers · CBout · 2026-10-02

    Vickers is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to face the Red Raiders on Saturday.

  • Quentin Gibson · WRQues. · 2026-10-01

    Gibson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Red-raiders on Saturday.

  • Charlie Williams · TEQues. · 2026-10-01

    Williams is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Red Raiders on Saturday.

  • Damian Henderson II · RBprobable · 2026-10-01

    Henderson II is managing with an undisclosed injury , but it is expected to play against Red Raiders on Saturday.

  • DeAndre Moore Jr. · WRprobable · 2026-10-02

    Moore Jr is managing with an undisclosed injury , but it is expected to play against the Red Raiders on Saturday.

Baylor
QBNate Bennett
568 yds · 5 TD · 2 INT
75.6109/729
SMicah Gifford
27 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
92.4
Coverage
85.9
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
61
Passer rating allowed
77.1
Missed tackles
2
90.38/2969
RBRyelan Morris
182 yds · 1 TD · 8.3 YPC
84.741/1044
LBKaleb Arterberry
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.4
Coverage
73.3
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
83.652/1796
LBJJ Shelton
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
60.0
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.362/1796
SBo Onu
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
49.7
Coverage
82.9
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
35
Passer rating allowed
68.2
Missed tackles
2
81.842/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Taz Williams Jr. · WRout · 2026-08-21

    Williams who is dealing with a collarbone injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Cole Redding · Sout · 2026-09-05

    Redding has been out of commission due to knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Ashton Jones · WRQues. · 2026-09-26

    Jones is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Arizona St. on Saturday, October 3rd.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

COLO
BAY
vs
Offense
60.1
#132 of 138
QB
75.6
#81 of 138
81.9
#24 of 138
RB
81.3
#28 of 138
71.8
#64 of 138
WR
72.4
#53 of 138
56.5
#135 of 138
TE
77.4
#31 of 138
71.2
#43 of 138
OL
62.7
#117 of 138
Defense
77.4
#31 of 138
DL
74.1
#63 of 138
74.1
#69 of 138
LB
80.5
#18 of 138
75.0
#34 of 138
DB
79.2
#4 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Colorado
opponent
Baylor
A-9.6
ASU#65
+36.0A
H-22.0
TTU#10
-13.7H
H-5.4
UCF#48
-0.6A
H-10.0
HOU#13
-5.2A