AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#74Away
Colorado
0-0 · AVR 47.8
23p
#42Home
Baylor
0-0 · AVR 57.5
35p
COLO 23%77% BAY
Spread
BAY -11.1
Total
58
Moneyline
COLO+343BAY-343
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← COLO advantageevenBAY advantage →
COLO throw
COLO QB #130COLO WR #24
BAY +29
COLO run
BAY +34
BAY throw
BAY WR #108BAY protection #16
COLO +23
BAY run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Lagway
Alessandro Lorenzetti
vs
Dylan Manuel
LT · BAY
EDGE · COLO
81.7
83.0
dead even
when BAY runs
Caden Knighten
vs
Gideon ESPN Lampron
RB · BAY
MLB · COLO
64.7
83.8
COLO +19
when COLO throws
Danny Scudero
vs
Devon Jordan
X · COLO
CB1 · BAY
70.8
74.5
BAY +4
off the edge· hunting Ponder
Taj White
vs
Hosea Wheeler
LT · COLO
EDGE · BAY
57.6
79.0
BAY +21
when BAY throws
Jadon Porter
vs
Justin Eaglin
X · BAY
CB1 · COLO
47.8
87.2
COLO +39
when COLO runs
Micah Welch
vs
Garrick Ponder
RB · COLO
MLB · BAY
54.7
74.3
BAY +20

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Colorado
DBJustin Eaglin
87.225/1427
LBGideon ESPN Lampron
83.829/878
WRDanny Scuderoquestionable
70.853/777
DBJason Stokes Jr.
69.4255/1427
LBLiona Lefau
67.6183/878
DBNaeten Mitchell
66.6318/1427
Baylor
CBDevon Jordan
74.5159/1427
LBGarrick Ponder
74.3112/878
LBRyan Davis
71.5126/878
CBStilton McKelvey
71.5203/1427
SDaniel Cobbs
70.8213/1427
RBCaden Knighten
64.776/514

also out — T. Williams Jr. (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Colorado
opponent
Baylor
home-21.6
Texas Tech#5
-13.0home
away-9.7
Arizona State#43
-1.1away
home-6.5
Houston#36
-2.9away
home-2.3
UCF#52
+1.3away

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBAY +11.195% interval: -12.9 to 3580% interval: -6.3 to 28.4-6+28COLO wins 23%BAY wins 77%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BAY 35–21 COLOBAY 32–46 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 35–42 COLO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBAY 39–39 COLO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBAY 42–35 COLO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBAY 46–32 COLO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBAY 49–28 COLO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBAY 53–25 COLO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBAY 56–21 COLO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBAY 60–18 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBAY 28–42 COLO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBAY 32–39 COLO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBAY 35–35 COLO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBAY 39–32 COLO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBAY 42–28 COLO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBAY 46–25 COLO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBAY 49–21 COLO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBAY 53–18 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBAY 56–14 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBAY 25–39 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBAY 28–35 COLO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBAY 32–32 COLO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBAY 35–28 COLO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBAY 39–25 COLO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBAY 42–21 COLO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBAY 46–18 COLO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBAY 49–14 COLO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBAY 53–11 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 21–35 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBAY 25–32 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBAY 28–28 COLO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBAY 32–25 COLO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBAY 35–21 COLO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBAY 39–18 COLO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBAY 42–14 COLO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBAY 46–11 COLO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBAY 49–7 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 18–32 COLO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBAY 21–28 COLO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBAY 25–25 COLO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBAY 28–21 COLO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBAY 32–18 COLO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBAY 35–14 COLO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBAY 39–11 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBAY 42–7 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBAY 46–4 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBAY 14–28 COLO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBAY 18–25 COLO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBAY 21–21 COLO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 25–18 COLO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBAY 28–14 COLO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBAY 32–11 COLO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBAY 35–7 COLO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBAY 39–4 COLO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBAY 42–0 COLO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBAY 11–25 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 14–21 COLO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBAY 18–18 COLO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBAY 21–14 COLO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 25–11 COLO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 28–7 COLO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBAY 32–4 COLO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBAY 35–0 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCOLO +14PKBAY +14BAY +28BAY +42margin →