CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
TTU 80.8%19.2% BAY
Projected margin
TTU by 13.7
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
TTU 32 to BAY 5
Win probability
TTU 80.8%

Current team profiles

Texas Tech
Baylor

When Texas Tech has the ball

Passing

BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
TTU offense
#33
BAY defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.36
#33
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
TTU offense
#42
BAY defense
#2
EPA comparison
0.17
#42
-0.23
#2
Rush EPA

Drive success

BAY defense
Higher-ranked profile
TTU offense
#42
BAY defense
#13
Success rates
47%
#42
34%
#13
Success rate
More metrics
0.19
#51
-0.10
#7
EPA / play
1.15
#105
1.08
#14
Explosiveness
19%
#126
20%
#15
Havoc

When Baylor has the ball

Passing

TTU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TTU defense
#30
BAY offense
#62
EPA comparison
0.02
#30
0.25
#62
Pass EPA

Rushing

TTU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TTU defense
#22
BAY offense
#70
EPA comparison
-0.09
#22
0.11
#70
Rush EPA

Drive success

TTU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TTU defense
#35
BAY offense
#102
Success rates
36%
#35
40%
#102
Success rate
More metrics
-0.06
#17
0.16
#68
EPA / play
1.29
#102
1.37
#15
Explosiveness
17%
#56
15%
#79
Havoc

Current key players

Texas Tech
QBWill Hammond
1102 yds · 5 TD · 5 INT
66.1203/729
LBAustin Romaine
33 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.3
Coverage
82.6
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
20
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
85.236/1796
TETerrance Carter Jr.
13 rec · 129 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
69.8
Run blocking
83.9
Penalties
0
81.121/1017
LBCorey Platt Jr.
11 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
51.4
Coverage
88.9
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
79.885/1796
RBJ'Koby Williams
373 yds · 3 TD · 5.9 YPC
78.599/1044
CBDavin Martin
13 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.8
Coverage
77.4
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
111
Passer rating allowed
78.7
Missed tackles
1
78.096/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Cameron Dickey · RBout · 2026-10-05

    Dickey is battling with a sprained ankle injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Trey White · LBQues. · 2026-09-26

    White is battling with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Colorado on Saturday, October 3rd.

  • Amier Boyd · CBQues. · 2026-09-26

    Boyd is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Colorado on Saturday, October 3rd.

  • Terrance Carter Jr. · TEprobable · 2026-09-28

    Carter Jr is nursing a shoulder injury, but he is expected to play against Colorado on Saturday.

Baylor
QBNate Bennett
568 yds · 5 TD · 2 INT
75.6109/729
SMicah Gifford
27 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
92.4
Coverage
85.9
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
61
Passer rating allowed
77.1
Missed tackles
2
90.38/2969
RBRyelan Morris
182 yds · 1 TD · 8.3 YPC
84.741/1044
LBKaleb Arterberry
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.4
Coverage
73.3
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
83.652/1796
LBJJ Shelton
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
60.0
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.362/1796
SBo Onu
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
49.7
Coverage
82.9
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
35
Passer rating allowed
68.2
Missed tackles
2
81.842/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Taz Williams Jr. · WRout · 2026-08-21

    Williams who is dealing with a collarbone injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Cole Redding · Sout · 2026-09-05

    Redding has been out of commission due to knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Ashton Jones · WRQues. · 2026-09-26

    Jones is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Arizona St. on Saturday, October 3rd.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

TTU
BAY
vs
Offense
66.1
#116 of 138
QB
75.6
#81 of 138
76.2
#64 of 138
RB
81.3
#28 of 138
66.7
#124 of 138
WR
72.4
#53 of 138
81.1
#21 of 138
TE
77.4
#31 of 138
70.9
#47 of 138
OL
62.7
#117 of 138
Defense
75.4
#50 of 138
DL
74.1
#63 of 138
80.1
#21 of 138
LB
80.5
#18 of 138
75.1
#32 of 138
DB
79.2
#4 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Texas Tech
opponent
Baylor
H+17.0
TCU#36
+0.7H
H+22.2
ASU#65
+36.0A
A+22.0
COLO#84
+10.0H
H+2.0
HOU#13
-5.2A