AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#5Away
Texas Tech
0-0 · AVR 77.5
37p
#42Home
Baylor
0-0 · AVR 57.5
24p
TTU 81%19% BAY
Spread
TTU -13.0
Total
60
Moneyline
TTU-429BAY+429
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TTU advantageevenBAY advantage →
TTU throw
TTU +6
TTU run
TTU backs #1
TTU +9
BAY throw
BAY WR #108BAY protection #16
TTU +42
BAY run
TTU +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Lagway
Alessandro Lorenzetti
vs
A.J. Holmes Jr.
LT · BAY
EDGE · TTU
81.7
97.7
TTU +16
when TTU runs
Cameron Dickey
vs
Garrick Ponder
RB · TTU
MLB · BAY
83.8
74.3
TTU +10
when BAY runs
Caden Knighten
vs
Adam Trick
RB · BAY
MLB · TTU
64.7
91.3
TTU +27
when BAY throws
Jadon Porter
vs
Brice Pollock
X · BAY
CB1 · TTU
47.8
100.7
TTU +53
over the middle
Terrance Carter Jr.
vs
Jacob Redding
TE · TTU
FS · BAY
79.4
66.5
TTU +13
when TTU throws
Donte Lee Jr.
vs
Devon Jordan
X · TTU
CB1 · BAY
67.3
74.5
BAY +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas Tech
CBBrice Pollock
100.73/1427
LBAdam Trick
91.39/878
LBAdam Hill
90.411/878
CBAshton Hamptonquestionable
84.452/1427
RBCameron Dickey
83.812/514
CBAmier Boyd
83.857/1427

also out — Cash Cleveland (OL)

Baylor
CBDevon Jordan
74.5159/1427
LBGarrick Ponder
74.3112/878
LBRyan Davis
71.5126/878
CBStilton McKelvey
71.5203/1427
SDaniel Cobbs
70.8213/1427
RBCaden Knighten
64.776/514

also out — T. Williams Jr. (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas Tech
opponent
Baylor
home+17.6
Houston#36
-2.9away
home+19.4
Arizona State#43
-1.1away
home+15.7
TCU#32
+0.2home
away+21.6
Colorado#74
+11.1home

Projected margin

80% between -30 and 4
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTTU +13.095% interval: -36.9 to 10.980% interval: -30.4 to 4.4-30+4TTU wins 81%BAY wins 19%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TTU 39–25 BAYBAY 21–63 TTU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBAY 25–60 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBAY 28–56 TTU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBAY 32–53 TTU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBAY 35–49 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 39–46 TTU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBAY 42–42 TTU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBAY 46–39 TTU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBAY 49–35 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 18–60 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 21–56 TTU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBAY 25–53 TTU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBAY 28–49 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBAY 32–46 TTU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBAY 35–42 TTU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBAY 39–39 TTU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBAY 42–35 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBAY 46–32 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 14–56 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 18–53 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBAY 21–49 TTU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBAY 25–46 TTU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBAY 28–42 TTU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBAY 32–39 TTU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBAY 35–35 TTU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBAY 39–32 TTU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBAY 42–28 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBAY 11–53 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 14–49 TTU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBAY 18–46 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 21–42 TTU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBAY 25–39 TTU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBAY 28–35 TTU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBAY 32–32 TTU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBAY 35–28 TTU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBAY 39–25 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBAY 7–49 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 11–46 TTU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBAY 14–42 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 18–39 TTU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBAY 21–35 TTU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBAY 25–32 TTU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBAY 28–28 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBAY 32–25 TTU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBAY 35–21 TTU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBAY 4–46 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBAY 7–42 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBAY 11–39 TTU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBAY 14–35 TTU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBAY 18–32 TTU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBAY 21–28 TTU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBAY 25–25 TTU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBAY 28–21 TTU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBAY 32–18 TTU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBAY 0–42 TTU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBAY 4–39 TTU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBAY 7–35 TTU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBAY 11–32 TTU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBAY 14–28 TTU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBAY 18–25 TTU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBAY 21–21 TTU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBAY 25–18 TTU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBAY 28–14 TTU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalTTU +42TTU +28TTU +14PKBAY +14margin →