AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#42Away
Baylor
0-0 · AVR 57.5
27p
#36Home
Houston
0-0 · AVR 60.1
30p
BAY 43%57% HOU
Spread
HOU -2.9
Total
58
Moneyline
BAY+135HOU-135
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BAY advantageevenHOU advantage →
BAY throw
BAY WR #108BAY protection #16
HOU +6
BAY run
HOU front #114HOU linebackers #26
BAY +24
HOU throw
even
HOU run
HOU line #21HOU backs #107
BAY +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Weigman
Shadre Hurst
vs
Hosea Wheeler
LT · HOU
EDGE · BAY
80.2
79.0
dead even
off the edge· hunting Lagway
Alessandro Lorenzetti
vs
Khalil Laufau
LT · BAY
EDGE · HOU
81.7
71.6
BAY +10
when HOU throws
Amare Thomas
vs
Devon Jordan
X · HOU
CB1 · BAY
69.4
74.5
BAY +5
when BAY runs
Caden Knighten
vs
Brandon Mack II
RB · BAY
MLB · HOU
64.7
78.1
HOU +13
when BAY throws
Jadon Porter
vs
Will James
X · BAY
CB1 · HOU
47.8
88.9
HOU +41
when HOU runs
Makhi Hughes
vs
Garrick Ponder
RB · HOU
MLB · BAY
51.8
74.3
BAY +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Baylor
CBDevon Jordan
74.5159/1427
LBGarrick Ponder
74.3112/878
LBRyan Davis
71.5126/878
CBStilton McKelvey
71.5203/1427
SDaniel Cobbs
70.8213/1427
RBCaden Knighten
64.776/514

also out — T. Williams Jr. (WR)

Houston
DBWill James
88.916/1427
LBBrandon Mack II
78.177/878
LBLatreveon McCutchin
75.4102/878
DBJamaal Shaw
73.3171/1427
DBJavion White
73.1175/1427
WRAmare Thomas
69.457/777

also out — L. McGary (TE), M. Tounkara (WR)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Baylor
opponent
Houston
away+1.3
UCF#52
+6.7home
home-13.0
Texas Tech#5
-17.6away
home+11.1
Colorado#74
+6.5away

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHOU +2.995% interval: -21.7 to 27.580% interval: -15 to 20.8-15+21BAY wins 43%HOU wins 57%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HOU 28–28 BAYHOU 25–53 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHOU 28–49 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHOU 32–46 BAY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHOU 35–42 BAY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHOU 39–39 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 42–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 46–32 BAY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHOU 49–28 BAY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHOU 53–25 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 21–49 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHOU 25–46 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHOU 28–42 BAY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesHOU 32–39 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 35–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHOU 39–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesHOU 42–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHOU 46–25 BAY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHOU 49–21 BAY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHOU 18–46 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 21–42 BAY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHOU 25–39 BAY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHOU 28–35 BAY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHOU 32–32 BAY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHOU 35–28 BAY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHOU 39–25 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHOU 42–21 BAY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesHOU 46–18 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHOU 14–42 BAY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 18–39 BAY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHOU 21–35 BAY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHOU 25–32 BAY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHOU 28–28 BAY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesHOU 32–25 BAY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHOU 35–21 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHOU 39–18 BAY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 42–14 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHOU 11–39 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHOU 14–35 BAY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHOU 18–32 BAY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 21–28 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHOU 25–25 BAY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHOU 28–21 BAY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHOU 32–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 35–14 BAY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesHOU 39–11 BAY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHOU 7–35 BAY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHOU 11–32 BAY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHOU 14–28 BAY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHOU 18–25 BAY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHOU 21–21 BAY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHOU 25–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHOU 28–14 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHOU 32–11 BAY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHOU 35–7 BAY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHOU 4–32 BAY neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesHOU 7–28 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 11–25 BAY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHOU 14–21 BAY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 18–18 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHOU 21–14 BAY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHOU 25–11 BAY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesHOU 28–7 BAY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHOU 32–4 BAY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalBAY +28BAY +14PKHOU +14HOU +28margin →