AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19
#36Away
Houston
0-0 · AVR 60.1
19p
#5Home
Texas Tech
0-0 · AVR 77.5
36p
HOU 11%89% TTU
Spread
TTU -17.6
Total
55
Moneyline
HOU+773TTU-773
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← HOU advantageevenTTU advantage →
HOU throw
TTU +24
HOU run
HOU line #21HOU backs #107
TTU +38
TTU throw
HOU coverage #18HOU pass rush #114
TTU +14
TTU run
TTU backs #1HOU front #114
TTU +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Weigman
Shadre Hurst
vs
A.J. Holmes Jr.
LT · HOU
EDGE · TTU
80.2
97.7
TTU +17
when HOU throws
Amare Thomas
vs
Brice Pollock
X · HOU
CB1 · TTU
69.4
100.7
TTU +31
when TTU runs
Cameron Dickey
vs
Brandon Mack II
RB · TTU
MLB · HOU
83.8
78.1
TTU +6
when TTU throws
Donte Lee Jr.
vs
Will James
X · TTU
CB1 · HOU
67.3
88.9
HOU +22
over the middle
Terrance Carter Jr.
vs
Jordan Allen
TE · TTU
FS · HOU
79.4
72.6
TTU +7
when HOU runs
Makhi Hughes
vs
Adam Trick
RB · HOU
MLB · TTU
51.8
91.3
TTU +39

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Houston
DBWill James
88.916/1427
LBBrandon Mack II
78.177/878
LBLatreveon McCutchin
75.4102/878
DBJamaal Shaw
73.3171/1427
DBJavion White
73.1175/1427
WRAmare Thomas
69.457/777

also out — L. McGary (TE), M. Tounkara (WR)

Texas Tech
CBBrice Pollock
100.73/1427
LBAdam Trick
91.39/878
LBAdam Hill
90.411/878
CBAshton Hamptonquestionable
84.452/1427
RBCameron Dickey
83.812/514
CBAmier Boyd
83.857/1427

also out — Cash Cleveland (OL)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Houston
opponent
Texas Tech
away+4.6
West Virginia#66
+24.7home
away+6.5
Colorado#74
+21.6away
home+17.5
Oklahoma State#97
+27.6away
home+5.6
Cincinnati#51
+15.7away
home+2.9
Baylor#42
+13.0away
home+35.3
Oregon State#122
+32.7away

Projected margin

80% between 0 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTTU +17.695% interval: -6.3 to 41.580% interval: 0.2 to 35+0+35HOU wins 11%TTU wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TTU 39–18 HOUTTU 35–42 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTTU 39–39 HOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTTU 42–35 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTTU 46–32 HOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTTU 49–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTTU 53–25 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTTU 56–21 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTTU 60–18 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTTU 63–14 HOU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTTU 32–39 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 35–35 HOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTTU 39–32 HOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTTU 42–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTTU 46–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTTU 49–21 HOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTTU 53–18 HOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 56–14 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 60–11 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTTU 28–35 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 32–32 HOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 35–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTTU 39–25 HOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTTU 42–21 HOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTTU 46–18 HOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTTU 49–14 HOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 53–11 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 56–7 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTTU 25–32 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 28–28 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTTU 32–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTTU 35–21 HOU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTTU 39–18 HOU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTTU 42–14 HOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTTU 46–11 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTTU 49–7 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 53–4 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTTU 21–28 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 25–25 HOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 28–21 HOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTTU 32–18 HOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 35–14 HOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTTU 39–11 HOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTTU 42–7 HOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTTU 46–4 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTTU 49–0 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTTU 18–25 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTTU 21–21 HOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 25–18 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 28–14 HOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 32–11 HOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTTU 35–7 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 39–4 HOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTTU 42–0 HOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TTU 14–21 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTTU 18–18 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTTU 21–14 HOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTTU 25–11 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 28–7 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTTU 32–4 HOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTTU 35–0 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalHOU +7TTU +7TTU +21TTU +35TTU +49margin →