Passing
No comparison
- SOU offense
- —
- HOU defense
- #93
EPA comparison
—
0.22
#93
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
SOU 0.1%99.9% HOU
- Projected margin
- HOU by 56.4
- Projected total
- 70
- 80% outcome range
- HOU 36 to HOU 77
- Win probability
- HOU 99.9%
FinalSOU 6 · HOU 77model had +56.4, off by 14.6
Current team profiles
Southern
HoustonWhen Southern has the ball
Rushing
No comparison
- SOU offense
- —
- HOU defense
- #33
EPA comparison
—
-0.05
#33
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- SOU offense
- #100
- HOU defense
- #55
Success rates
41%
#100
39%
#55
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#66
0.09
#84
EPA / play
0.19
#93
1.32
#111
Explosiveness
—
20%
#19
Havoc
When Houston has the ball
Passing
No comparison
- SOU defense
- —
- HOU offense
- #6
EPA comparison
—
0.55
#6
Pass EPA
Rushing
No comparison
- SOU defense
- —
- HOU offense
- #21
EPA comparison
—
0.23
#21
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- SOU defense
- #69
- HOU offense
- #2
Success rates
45%
#69
55%
#2
Success rate
More metrics
0.25
#120
0.36
#5
EPA / play
0.20
#52
1.09
#127
Explosiveness
—
10%
#7
Havoc
Current key players
SouthernRBMike Franklin
263 yds · 2 TD · 9.1 YPC
82.323/631
DBTy Lee
20 tkl · 5 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.4
- Coverage
- 80.0
- Targets allowed
- 28
- Rec allowed
- 14
- Yards allowed
- 155
- Passer rating allowed
- 90.6
- Missed tackles
- 4
79.155/1765
DBKhamani Hickman
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 78.5
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
77.292/1765
KConnor Perritt
0 punts · 0.0 avg
76.724/416
DLCkelby Givens
16 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 85.5
- Pressures
- 9
- Pass-rush snaps
- 110
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 1
76.586/1549
WRMiles Dixon
8 rec · 155 yds · 1 TD
76.258/1229
HoustonQBLuke Carney
— yds · — TD · — INT
90.420/729
WRJack Newhouse
— rec · — yds · — TD
92.44/2069
LBChristian Brathwaite
3 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 89.0
- Coverage
- 72.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
91.17/1796
RBJohn Hebert
65 yds · 1 TD · 13.0 YPC
88.715/1044
TEWyatt Herbel
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
- Run blocking
- 83.4
- Penalties
- 0
88.65/1017
DBJalen Mayo
19 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 75.2
- Coverage
- 78.7
- Targets allowed
- 16
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 158
- Passer rating allowed
- 74.5
- Missed tackles
- 3
83.832/2969
Availability reports · 6
- John Hebert · RBout · 2026-10-05
Hebert is laid up with a lower leg injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Muizz Tounkara · WRout · 2026-08-11
Tounkara is nursing with a foot injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Jacory Thurman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Thurman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jeffrey Strozier Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Strozier is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will suit up against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th
- Evan Noel · KQues. · 2026-10-11
Noel is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.
- JayShon Ridgle · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Ridgle is dealing with undisclosed injury, it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
SOUSouthern
HOUHouston
vs
Offense
71.2
#68 of 125
QB
Quarterback
90.4
#19 of 138
76.2
#28 of 126
RB
Running backs
87.3
#4 of 138
71.6
#35 of 126
WR
Receivers
77.3
#22 of 138
70.5
#32 of 124
TE
Tight ends
88.6
#5 of 138
66.8
#41 of 125
OL
Offensive line
76.2
#12 of 138
Defense
71.5
#49 of 126
DL
Defensive line
80.3
#15 of 138
67.8
#101 of 126
LB
Linebackers
77.6
#40 of 138
72.8
#44 of 126
DB
Secondary
72.8
#58 of 138