AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#36Away
Houston
0-0 · AVR 60.1
20p
#16Home
Utah
0-0 · AVR 71.8
33p
HOU 18%82% UTAH
Spread
UTAH -13.1
Total
54
Moneyline
HOU+446UTAH-446
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← HOU advantageevenUTAH advantage →
HOU throw
UTAH +12
HOU run
HOU line #21HOU backs #107
even
UTAH throw
HOU coverage #18HOU pass rush #114
UTAH +31
UTAH run
HOU front #114HOU linebackers #26
UTAH +38

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UTAH throws
Braden Pegan
vs
Will James
X · UTAH
CB1 · HOU
82.5
88.9
HOU +6
off the edge· hunting Weigman
Shadre Hurst
vs
Ethan Day
LT · HOU
EDGE · UTAH
80.2
88.6
UTAH +8
when UTAH runs
Wayshawn Parker
vs
Brandon Mack II
RB · UTAH
MLB · HOU
84.7
78.1
UTAH +7
when HOU throws
Amare Thomas
vs
Jackson Bennee
X · HOU
CB1 · UTAH
69.4
90.2
UTAH +21
off the edge· hunting Dampier
Zereoue Williams
vs
Khalil Laufau
LT · UTAH
EDGE · HOU
87.1
71.6
UTAH +16
over the middle
Hunter Andrews
vs
Jordan Allen
TE · UTAH
FS · HOU
66.4
72.6
HOU +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Houston
DBWill James
88.916/1427
LBBrandon Mack II
78.177/878
LBLatreveon McCutchin
75.4102/878
DBJamaal Shaw
73.3171/1427
DBJavion White
73.1175/1427
WRAmare Thomas
69.457/777

also out — L. McGary (TE), M. Tounkara (WR)

Utah
SJackson Bennee
90.211/1427
RBWayshawn Parker
84.77/514
QBDevon Dampier
83.813/308
WRBraden Pegan
82.517/777
CBElijah Reed
81.083/1427
CBRock Caldwell
77.9116/1427

also out — Kingston Stroshine (LB)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Houston
opponent
Utah
away+4.6
West Virginia#66
+20.2home
away+6.5
Colorado#74
+17.0away
home+5.6
Cincinnati#51
+11.2away

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTAH +13.195% interval: -10.8 to 3780% interval: -4.3 to 30.4-4+30HOU wins 18%UTAH wins 82%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTAH 35–21 HOUUTAH 32–46 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 35–42 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTAH 39–39 HOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 42–35 HOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTAH 46–32 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 49–28 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTAH 53–25 HOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTAH 56–21 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 60–18 HOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTAH 28–42 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 32–39 HOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTAH 35–35 HOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTAH 39–32 HOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTAH 42–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTAH 46–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTAH 49–21 HOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTAH 53–18 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTAH 56–14 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 25–39 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 28–35 HOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTAH 32–32 HOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTAH 35–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTAH 39–25 HOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTAH 42–21 HOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTAH 46–18 HOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTAH 49–14 HOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTAH 53–11 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 21–35 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 25–32 HOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 28–28 HOU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTAH 32–25 HOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTAH 35–21 HOU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUTAH 39–18 HOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTAH 42–14 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 46–11 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 49–7 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 18–32 HOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 21–28 HOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 25–25 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 28–21 HOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTAH 32–18 HOU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTAH 35–14 HOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTAH 39–11 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 42–7 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 46–4 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 14–28 HOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 18–25 HOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 21–21 HOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 25–18 HOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTAH 28–14 HOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTAH 32–11 HOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTAH 35–7 HOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTAH 39–4 HOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTAH 42–0 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 11–25 HOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 14–21 HOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTAH 18–18 HOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTAH 21–14 HOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 25–11 HOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTAH 28–7 HOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTAH 32–4 HOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTAH 35–0 HOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalHOU +14PKUTAH +14UTAH +28UTAH +42margin →