AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#52Away
UCF
0-0 · AVR 54.6
23p
#36Home
Houston
0-0 · AVR 60.1
30p
UCF 32%68% HOU
Spread
HOU -6.7
Total
53
Moneyline
UCF+211HOU-211
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UCF advantageevenHOU advantage →
UCF throw
HOU coverage #18HOU pass rush #114
even
UCF run
HOU front #114HOU linebackers #26
HOU +34
HOU throw
even
HOU run
HOU line #21HOU backs #107
UCF +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Weigman
Shadre Hurst
vs
Bruno Dall
LT · HOU
EDGE · UCF
80.2
95.8
UCF +16
when UCF throws
Jonathan Bibbs
vs
Will James
X · UCF
CB1 · HOU
65.7
88.9
HOU +23
when HOU throws
Amare Thomas
vs
Jayden Bellamy
X · HOU
CB1 · UCF
69.4
74.2
UCF +5
when HOU runs
Makhi Hughes
vs
Jahleel Culbreath
RB · HOU
MLB · UCF
51.8
80.2
UCF +28
when UCF runs
Duke Watson
vs
Brandon Mack II
RB · UCF
MLB · HOU
49.4
78.1
HOU +29
over the middle
Dylan Wade
vs
Jordan Allen
TE · UCF
FS · HOU
53.4
72.6
HOU +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UCF
LBJahleel Culbreath
80.250/878
DBJayden Bellamy
74.2160/1427
DBDemari Henderson
72.5182/1427
LBLewis Carter
70.3139/878
DBCaleb Flagg
66.1333/1427
WRJonathan Bibbs
65.779/777

also out — L.A. Jessie Harrold (EDGE)

Houston
DBWill James
88.916/1427
LBBrandon Mack II
78.177/878
LBLatreveon McCutchin
75.4102/878
DBJamaal Shaw
73.3171/1427
DBJavion White
73.1175/1427
WRAmare Thomas
69.457/777

also out — L. McGary (TE), M. Tounkara (WR)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UCF
opponent
Houston
away+8.3
Oklahoma State#97
+17.5home
home-1.3
Baylor#42
+2.9home
away+2.3
Colorado#74
+6.5away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHOU +6.795% interval: -17.2 to 30.680% interval: -10.7 to 24.1-11+24UCF wins 32%HOU wins 68%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HOU 32–25 UCFHOU 28–49 UCF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHOU 32–46 UCF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHOU 35–42 UCF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHOU 39–39 UCF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHOU 42–35 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHOU 46–32 UCF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHOU 49–28 UCF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHOU 53–25 UCF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHOU 56–21 UCF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHOU 25–46 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 28–42 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHOU 32–39 UCF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 35–35 UCF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 39–32 UCF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHOU 42–28 UCF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHOU 46–25 UCF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 49–21 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHOU 53–18 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 21–42 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 25–39 UCF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHOU 28–35 UCF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHOU 32–32 UCF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHOU 35–28 UCF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHOU 39–25 UCF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHOU 42–21 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHOU 46–18 UCF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHOU 49–14 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 18–39 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHOU 21–35 UCF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHOU 25–32 UCF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHOU 28–28 UCF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHOU 32–25 UCF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesHOU 35–21 UCF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHOU 39–18 UCF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHOU 42–14 UCF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHOU 46–11 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 14–35 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHOU 18–32 UCF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHOU 21–28 UCF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHOU 25–25 UCF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHOU 28–21 UCF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesHOU 32–18 UCF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHOU 35–14 UCF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHOU 39–11 UCF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHOU 42–7 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 11–32 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 14–28 UCF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHOU 18–25 UCF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHOU 21–21 UCF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHOU 25–18 UCF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHOU 28–14 UCF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHOU 32–11 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHOU 35–7 UCF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHOU 39–4 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHOU 7–28 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHOU 11–25 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHOU 14–21 UCF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 18–18 UCF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHOU 21–14 UCF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHOU 25–11 UCF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHOU 28–7 UCF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHOU 32–4 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHOU 35–0 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUCF +21UCF +7HOU +7HOU +21HOU +35margin →