Passing
UCF offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UCF offense
- #84
- HOU defense
- #93
EPA comparison
0.16
#84
0.22
#93
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UCF 30.0%70.0% HOU
- Projected margin
- HOU by 7.8
- Projected total
- 53
- 80% outcome range
- UCF 12 to HOU 28
- Win probability
- HOU 70.0%
FinalUCF 17 · HOU 27model had +7.8, off by 2.2
Current team profiles
UCF
HoustonWhen UCF has the ball
Rushing
HOU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UCF offense
- #72
- HOU defense
- #33
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
-0.05
#33
Rush EPA
Drive success
HOU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UCF offense
- #94
- HOU defense
- #55
Success rates
41%
#94
39%
#55
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#80
0.09
#84
EPA / play
1.29
#33
1.32
#111
Explosiveness
15%
#69
20%
#19
Havoc
When Houston has the ball
Passing
HOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UCF defense
- #68
- HOU offense
- #6
EPA comparison
0.13
#68
0.55
#6
Pass EPA
Rushing
HOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UCF defense
- #22
- HOU offense
- #21
EPA comparison
-0.09
#22
0.23
#21
Rush EPA
Drive success
HOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UCF defense
- #67
- HOU offense
- #2
Success rates
40%
#67
55%
#2
Success rate
More metrics
0.00
#41
0.36
#5
EPA / play
1.10
#22
1.09
#127
Explosiveness
15%
#84
10%
#7
Havoc
Current key players
UCFQBRocco Marriott
— yds · — TD · — INT
78.385/729
RBAgyeman Addae
74 yds · 1 TD · 18.5 YPC
81.460/1044
DBDemari Henderson
29 tkl · 3 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 89.5
- Coverage
- 72.5
- Targets allowed
- 12
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 38
- Passer rating allowed
- 0.7
- Missed tackles
- 5
79.768/2969
DBJayden Bellamy
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.1
- Coverage
- 74.6
- Targets allowed
- 11
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 81
- Passer rating allowed
- 25.2
- Missed tackles
- 1
77.0122/2969
DBJayden Williams
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 74.2
- Coverage
- 71.9
- Targets allowed
- 19
- Rec allowed
- 16
- Yards allowed
- 161
- Passer rating allowed
- 80.0
- Missed tackles
- 1
74.5209/2969
WRCaleb Rollerson
4 rec · 38 yds · 1 TD
74.1143/2069
Availability reports · 4
- Lewis Carter · LBout · 2026-10-10
Carter has been placed on the injured list with a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Duane Thomas Jr. · WRout · 2026-10-10
Thomas Jr. is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.
- Alonza Barnett III · QBQues. · 2026-10-10
Barnett III is managing with an hamstring injury, and it is unclear if he will face BYU on Saturday, October 24th.
- Dylan Wade · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Wade is dealing with an Shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will play against BYU on Saturday, October 24th.
HoustonQBLuke Carney
— yds · — TD · — INT
90.420/729
WRJack Newhouse
— rec · — yds · — TD
92.44/2069
LBChristian Brathwaite
3 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 89.0
- Coverage
- 72.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
91.17/1796
RBJohn Hebert
65 yds · 1 TD · 13.0 YPC
88.715/1044
TEWyatt Herbel
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
- Run blocking
- 83.4
- Penalties
- 0
88.65/1017
DBJalen Mayo
19 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 75.2
- Coverage
- 78.7
- Targets allowed
- 16
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 158
- Passer rating allowed
- 74.5
- Missed tackles
- 3
83.832/2969
Availability reports · 6
- John Hebert · RBout · 2026-10-05
Hebert is laid up with a lower leg injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Muizz Tounkara · WRout · 2026-08-11
Tounkara is nursing with a foot injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Jacory Thurman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Thurman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jeffrey Strozier Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Strozier is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will suit up against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th
- Evan Noel · KQues. · 2026-10-11
Noel is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.
- JayShon Ridgle · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Ridgle is dealing with undisclosed injury, it is unclear if he will play against the Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
UCFUCF
HOUHouston
vs
Offense
78.3
#66 of 138
QB
Quarterback
90.4
#19 of 138
76.2
#63 of 138
RB
Running backs
87.3
#4 of 138
68.8
#98 of 138
WR
Receivers
77.3
#22 of 138
70.1
#64 of 138
TE
Tight ends
88.6
#5 of 138
70.1
#54 of 138
OL
Offensive line
76.2
#12 of 138
Defense
77.9
#23 of 138
DL
Defensive line
80.3
#15 of 138
71.5
#92 of 138
LB
Linebackers
77.6
#40 of 138
74.9
#36 of 138
DB
Secondary
72.8
#58 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
UCF
opponent
Houston
Aaway-14.0
OKSTOklahoma State#52+13.1Hhome
Hhome+0.6
BAYBaylor#41+5.2Hhome
Aaway+5.4
COLOColorado#84+10.0Aaway