AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:00 PM
#131Away
Georgia State
0-0 · AVR 26.7
18p
#52Home
UCF
0-0 · AVR 54.6
37p
GAST 9%91% UCF
Spread
UCF -19.3
Total
56
Moneyline
GAST+964UCF-964
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GAST advantageevenUCF advantage →
GAST throw
UCF +36
GAST run
UCF +56
UCF throw
UCF +58
UCF run
UCF +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Brown
Deylin Hasert
vs
Bruno Dall
LT · GAST
EDGE · UCF
54.8
95.8
UCF +41
when GAST runs
Dennis Murray Jr.
vs
Jahleel Culbreath
RB · GAST
MLB · UCF
47.2
80.2
UCF +33
over the middle
Grant Hollier
vs
Antione Jackson
TE · GAST
FS · UCF
61.3
62.8
dead even
when GAST throws
Jaylin Marshall
vs
Jayden Bellamy
X · GAST
CB1 · UCF
44.1
74.2
UCF +30
when UCF throws
Jonathan Bibbs
vs
Deuce Walker
X · UCF
CB1 · GAST
65.7
42.6
UCF +23
when UCF runs
Duke Watson
vs
Jaden Kelly
RB · UCF
MLB · GAST
49.4
39.6
UCF +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia State
TEGrant Hollier
61.340/287
QBCameran Brown
58.277/308
RBDennis Murray Jr.
47.2376/514
WRJaylin Marshall
44.1490/777
WRDerrick Avery Jr.
42.9530/777
SDeuce Walker
42.6961/1427
UCF
LBJahleel Culbreath
80.250/878
DBJayden Bellamy
74.2160/1427
DBDemari Henderson
72.5182/1427
LBLewis Carter
70.3139/878
DBCaleb Flagg
66.1333/1427
WRJonathan Bibbs
65.779/777

also out — L.A. Jessie Harrold (EDGE)

Projected margin

80% between 2 and 37
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUCF +19.395% interval: -4.6 to 43.280% interval: 1.9 to 36.7+2+37GAST wins 9%UCF wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UCF 39–18 GASTUCF 35–42 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 39–39 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCF 42–35 GAST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCF 46–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCF 49–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 53–25 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCF 56–21 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 60–18 GAST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCF 63–14 GAST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 32–39 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 35–35 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 39–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCF 42–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCF 46–25 GAST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCF 49–21 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCF 53–18 GAST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 56–14 GAST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 60–11 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 28–35 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 32–32 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCF 35–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCF 39–25 GAST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCF 42–21 GAST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUCF 46–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCF 49–14 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCF 53–11 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCF 56–7 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 25–32 GAST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCF 28–28 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCF 32–25 GAST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCF 35–21 GAST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUCF 39–18 GAST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUCF 42–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCF 46–11 GAST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 49–7 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCF 53–4 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 21–28 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 25–25 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCF 28–21 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCF 32–18 GAST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCF 35–14 GAST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUCF 39–11 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCF 42–7 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCF 46–4 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCF 49–0 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 18–25 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 21–21 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 25–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCF 28–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCF 32–11 GAST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCF 35–7 GAST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCF 39–4 GAST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 42–0 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UCF 14–21 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 18–18 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCF 21–14 GAST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 25–11 GAST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCF 28–7 GAST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 32–4 GAST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 35–0 GAST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalGAST +7UCF +7UCF +21UCF +35UCF +49margin →