AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
#52Away
UCF
0-0 · AVR 54.6
24p
#33Home
Pittsburgh
0-0 · AVR 60.7
32p
UCF 29%71% PITT
Spread
PITT -8.2
Total
55
Moneyline
UCF+241PITT-241
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UCF advantageevenPITT advantage →
UCF throw
PITT pass rush #8
PITT +8
UCF run
PITT +77
PITT throw
PITT QB #26PITT protection #78
UCF +12
PITT run
PITT backs #32
UCF +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when PITT runs
Ja'Kyrian Turner
vs
Jahleel Culbreath
RB · PITT
MLB · UCF
73.8
80.2
UCF +6
when UCF throws
Jonathan Bibbs
vs
Shawn Lee Jr.
X · UCF
CB1 · PITT
65.7
84.7
PITT +19
off the edge· hunting Heintschel
Ryan Baer
vs
Bruno Dall
LT · PITT
EDGE · UCF
45.5
95.8
UCF +50
when UCF runs
Duke Watson
vs
Braylan Lovelace
RB · UCF
MLB · PITT
49.4
89.0
PITT +40
when PITT throws
Bryce Yates
vs
Jayden Bellamy
X · PITT
CB1 · UCF
55.6
74.2
UCF +19
over the middle
Elijah Lagg
vs
Antione Jackson
TE · PITT
FS · UCF
50.0
62.8
UCF +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UCF
LBJahleel Culbreath
80.250/878
DBJayden Bellamy
74.2160/1427
DBDemari Henderson
72.5182/1427
LBLewis Carter
70.3139/878
DBCaleb Flagg
66.1333/1427
WRJonathan Bibbs
65.779/777

also out — L.A. Jessie Harrold (EDGE)

Pittsburgh
LBBraylan Lovelace
89.012/878
DBShawn Lee Jr.
84.748/1427
LBDeMarco Ward
79.067/878
QBMason Heintschel
77.426/308
DBCruce Brookins
76.7130/1427
RBJa'Kyrian Turner
73.840/514

also out — Keith Gouveia (OL)

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPITT +8.295% interval: -15.7 to 32.180% interval: -9.2 to 25.6-9+26UCF wins 29%PITT wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PITT 32–25 UCFPITT 28–49 UCF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 32–46 UCF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 35–42 UCF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPITT 39–39 UCF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPITT 42–35 UCF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPITT 46–32 UCF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPITT 49–28 UCF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPITT 53–25 UCF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPITT 56–21 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 25–46 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 28–42 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPITT 32–39 UCF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPITT 35–35 UCF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPITT 39–32 UCF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPITT 42–28 UCF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPITT 46–25 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 49–21 UCF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPITT 53–18 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPITT 21–42 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 25–39 UCF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 28–35 UCF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPITT 32–32 UCF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPITT 35–28 UCF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPITT 39–25 UCF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPITT 42–21 UCF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPITT 46–18 UCF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 49–14 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 18–39 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPITT 21–35 UCF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPITT 25–32 UCF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPITT 28–28 UCF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPITT 32–25 UCF neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesPITT 35–21 UCF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPITT 39–18 UCF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPITT 42–14 UCF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 46–11 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 14–35 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 18–32 UCF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 21–28 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 25–25 UCF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPITT 28–21 UCF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPITT 32–18 UCF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPITT 35–14 UCF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPITT 39–11 UCF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 42–7 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 11–32 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 14–28 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPITT 18–25 UCF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPITT 21–21 UCF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPITT 25–18 UCF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPITT 28–14 UCF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPITT 32–11 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 35–7 UCF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPITT 39–4 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPITT 7–28 UCF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 11–25 UCF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 14–21 UCF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 18–18 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 21–14 UCF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPITT 25–11 UCF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPITT 28–7 UCF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPITT 32–4 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPITT 35–0 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUCF +21UCF +7PITT +7PITT +21PITT +35margin →