AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#32Away
TCU
0-1 · AVR 61.0
30p
#52Home
UCF
0-0 · AVR 54.6
26p
TCU 59%41% UCF
Spread
TCU -3.6
Total
56
Moneyline
TCU-145UCF+145
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TCU advantageevenUCF advantage →
TCU throw
TCU protection #62
even
TCU run
UCF +15
UCF throw
UCF +9
UCF run
TCU +36

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TCU throws
Jordan Dwyer
vs
Jayden Bellamy
X · TCU
CB1 · UCF
84.9
74.2
TCU +11
when TCU runs
Jeremy Payne
vs
Jahleel Culbreath
RB · TCU
MLB · UCF
73.4
80.2
UCF +7
when UCF throws
Jonathan Bibbs
vs
Kalen Carroll
X · UCF
CB1 · TCU
65.7
86.7
TCU +21
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Cade Bennett
vs
Bruno Dall
LT · TCU
EDGE · UCF
51.8
95.8
UCF +44
when UCF runs
Duke Watson
vs
Paul Oyewale
RB · UCF
MLB · TCU
49.4
75.3
TCU +26
over the middle
Lafayette Kaiuway
vs
Antione Jackson
TE · TCU
FS · UCF
56.0
62.8
UCF +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
TCU
CBKalen Carroll
86.732/1427
WRJordan Dwyer
84.914/777
LBPaul Oyewale
75.3105/878
RBJeremy Payne
73.443/514
LBZach Chapmanprobable
69.9145/878
SRyan Yaites
65.2350/1427

also out — Jacob Fields (S), D. Ezukanma (WR)

UCF
LBJahleel Culbreath
80.250/878
DBJayden Bellamy
74.2160/1427
DBDemari Henderson
72.5182/1427
LBLewis Carter
70.3139/878
DBCaleb Flagg
66.1333/1427
WRJonathan Bibbs
65.779/777

also out — L.A. Jessie Harrold (EDGE)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
TCU
opponent
UCF
home+6.2
Kansas#50
-4.9away
home-4.1
BYU#19
-10.2home
away-0.2
Baylor#42
-1.3home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTCU +3.695% interval: -27.5 to 20.380% interval: -21 to 13.8-21+14TCU wins 59%UCF wins 41%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TCU 32–25 UCFUCF 21–56 TCU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUCF 25–53 TCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 28–49 TCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCF 32–46 TCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 35–42 TCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 39–39 TCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 42–35 TCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 46–32 TCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCF 49–28 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 18–53 TCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 21–49 TCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCF 25–46 TCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCF 28–42 TCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 32–39 TCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCF 35–35 TCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCF 39–32 TCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 42–28 TCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCF 46–25 TCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCF 14–49 TCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 18–46 TCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 21–42 TCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 25–39 TCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCF 28–35 TCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCF 32–32 TCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCF 35–28 TCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCF 39–25 TCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 42–21 TCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 11–46 TCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 14–42 TCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 18–39 TCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 21–35 TCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCF 25–32 TCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCF 28–28 TCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCF 32–25 TCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCF 35–21 TCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 39–18 TCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 7–42 TCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 11–39 TCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 14–35 TCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 18–32 TCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCF 21–28 TCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCF 25–25 TCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCF 28–21 TCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCF 32–18 TCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 35–14 TCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 4–39 TCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 7–35 TCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCF 11–32 TCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCF 14–28 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCF 18–25 TCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCF 21–21 TCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCF 25–18 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCF 28–14 TCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCF 32–11 TCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCF 0–35 TCU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUCF 4–32 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 7–28 TCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCF 11–25 TCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 14–21 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCF 18–18 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCF 21–14 TCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 25–11 TCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCF 28–7 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalTCU +35TCU +21TCU +7UCF +7UCF +21margin →