Passing
TCU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TCU offense
- #55
- UCF defense
- #68
EPA comparison
0.27
#55
0.13
#68
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
TCU 39.0%61.0% UCF
- Projected margin
- UCF by 4.4
- Projected total
- 50
- 80% outcome range
- TCU 14 to UCF 24
- Win probability
- UCF 61.0%
FinalTCU 13 · UCF 21model had +4.4, off by 3.6
Current team profiles
TCU
UCFWhen TCU has the ball
Rushing
UCF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TCU offense
- #113
- UCF defense
- #22
EPA comparison
-0.01
#113
-0.09
#22
Rush EPA
Drive success
TCU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TCU offense
- #57
- UCF defense
- #67
Success rates
45%
#57
40%
#67
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#77
0.00
#41
EPA / play
1.24
#63
1.10
#22
Explosiveness
15%
#69
15%
#84
Havoc
When UCF has the ball
Passing
TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TCU defense
- #17
- UCF offense
- #84
EPA comparison
-0.01
#17
0.16
#84
Pass EPA
Rushing
TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TCU defense
- #8
- UCF offense
- #72
EPA comparison
-0.17
#8
0.10
#72
Rush EPA
Drive success
TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TCU defense
- #33
- UCF offense
- #94
Success rates
36%
#33
41%
#94
Success rate
More metrics
-0.10
#7
0.12
#80
EPA / play
0.96
#1
1.29
#33
Explosiveness
18%
#39
15%
#69
Havoc
Current key players
TCUQBJaden Craig
1400 yds · 8 TD · 4 INT
79.672/729
TEKari Ashley
25 rec · 374 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 55.0
- Run blocking
- 64.8
- Penalties
- 0
84.113/1017
SKaden McFadden
14 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 92.9
- Coverage
- 67.0
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 3
- Passer rating allowed
- 56.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
82.838/2969
CBVernon Glover Jr.
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 91.3
- Coverage
- 75.3
- Targets allowed
- 15
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 55
- Passer rating allowed
- 22.9
- Missed tackles
- 1
79.175/2969
LBHudson Hooper
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.8
- Coverage
- 81.2
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 13
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 0
78.3114/1796
LBKeylan Abrams
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.8
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 1
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
77.3131/1796
Availability reports · 4
- Michael Short · LBout · 2026-10-01
Short is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
- Jordan Dwyer · WRout · 2026-09-11
Dwyer is dealing with a foot injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- J. Pitchford · RBout · 2026-10-01
Pitchford has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Cougars on Saturday.
- Kyle Lemmermann · KQues. · 2026-10-01
Lemmermann is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cougars on Saturday.
UCFQBRocco Marriott
— yds · — TD · — INT
78.385/729
RBAgyeman Addae
74 yds · 1 TD · 18.5 YPC
81.460/1044
DBDemari Henderson
29 tkl · 3 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 89.5
- Coverage
- 72.5
- Targets allowed
- 12
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 38
- Passer rating allowed
- 0.7
- Missed tackles
- 5
79.768/2969
DBJayden Bellamy
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.1
- Coverage
- 74.6
- Targets allowed
- 11
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 81
- Passer rating allowed
- 25.2
- Missed tackles
- 1
77.0122/2969
DBJayden Williams
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 74.2
- Coverage
- 71.9
- Targets allowed
- 19
- Rec allowed
- 16
- Yards allowed
- 161
- Passer rating allowed
- 80.0
- Missed tackles
- 1
74.5209/2969
WRCaleb Rollerson
4 rec · 38 yds · 1 TD
74.1143/2069
Availability reports · 4
- Lewis Carter · LBout · 2026-10-10
Carter has been placed on the injured list with a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Duane Thomas Jr. · WRout · 2026-10-10
Thomas Jr. is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.
- Alonza Barnett III · QBQues. · 2026-10-10
Barnett III is managing with an hamstring injury, and it is unclear if he will face BYU on Saturday, October 24th.
- Dylan Wade · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Wade is dealing with an Shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will play against BYU on Saturday, October 24th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
TCUTCU
UCFUCF
vs
Offense
79.6
#58 of 138
QB
Quarterback
78.3
#66 of 138
74.7
#74 of 138
RB
Running backs
76.2
#63 of 138
67.7
#112 of 138
WR
Receivers
68.8
#98 of 138
84.1
#13 of 138
TE
Tight ends
70.1
#64 of 138
69.3
#58 of 138
OL
Offensive line
70.1
#54 of 138
Defense
77.0
#37 of 138
DL
Defensive line
77.9
#23 of 138
76.8
#46 of 138
LB
Linebackers
71.5
#92 of 138
77.8
#10 of 138
DB
Secondary
74.9
#36 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
TCU
opponent
UCF
Hhome+10.0
KUKansas#31+0.7Aaway
Aaway-0.7
BAYBaylor#41+0.6Hhome
Hhome-7.0
BYUBYU#18-6.5Hhome