AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#52Away
UCF
0-0 · AVR 54.6
31p
#97Home
Oklahoma State
0-0 · AVR 40.7
23p
UCF 72%28% OKST
Spread
UCF -8.3
Total
54
Moneyline
UCF-255OKST+255
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UCF advantageevenOKST advantage →
UCF throw
even
UCF run
OKST +40
OKST throw
OKST protection #77
OKST +9
OKST run
OKST backs #26
UCF +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mestemaker
Johnny Dickson III
vs
Bruno Dall
LT · OKST
EDGE · UCF
90.8
95.8
UCF +5
when OKST runs
Caleb Hawkins
vs
Jahleel Culbreath
RB · OKST
MLB · UCF
88.3
80.2
OKST +8
when OKST throws
Wyatt Young
vs
Jayden Bellamy
X · OKST
CB1 · UCF
79.7
74.2
OKST +6
when UCF throws
Jonathan Bibbs
vs
Kollin Lewis
X · UCF
CB1 · OKST
65.7
68.8
OKST +3
when UCF runs
Duke Watson
vs
Ethan Wesloski
RB · UCF
MLB · OKST
49.4
76.0
OKST +27
over the middle
Dylan Wade
vs
Mo Horn
TE · UCF
FS · OKST
53.4
63.9
OKST +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UCF
LBJahleel Culbreath
80.250/878
DBJayden Bellamy
74.2160/1427
DBDemari Henderson
72.5182/1427
LBLewis Carter
70.3139/878
DBCaleb Flagg
66.1333/1427
WRJonathan Bibbs
65.779/777

also out — L.A. Jessie Harrold (EDGE)

Oklahoma State
RBCaleb Hawkins
88.32/514
QBDrew Mestemaker
86.39/308
WRWyatt Young
79.722/777
LBEthan Wesloski
76.095/878
CBKollin Lewis
68.8265/1427
SChristian Bodnar
68.1279/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UCF
opponent
Oklahoma State
home+0.9
Iowa State#56
-14.9away
home+0.1
Arizona State#43
-15.7away
away-6.7
Houston#36
-17.5away
away+2.3
Colorado#74
-3.6home
away-4.9
Kansas#50
-10.7home

Projected margin

80% between -26 and 9
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUCF +8.395% interval: -32.2 to 15.680% interval: -25.7 to 9.1-26+9UCF wins 72%OKST wins 28%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UCF 32–25 OKSTOKST 21–56 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOKST 25–53 UCF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 28–49 UCF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOKST 32–46 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOKST 35–42 UCF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOKST 39–39 UCF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOKST 42–35 UCF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOKST 46–32 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOKST 49–28 UCF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 18–53 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 21–49 UCF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOKST 25–46 UCF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOKST 28–42 UCF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOKST 32–39 UCF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOKST 35–35 UCF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOKST 39–32 UCF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOKST 42–28 UCF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 46–25 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOKST 14–49 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOKST 18–46 UCF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOKST 21–42 UCF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 25–39 UCF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOKST 28–35 UCF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOKST 32–32 UCF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOKST 35–28 UCF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOKST 39–25 UCF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOKST 42–21 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOKST 11–46 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOKST 14–42 UCF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOKST 18–39 UCF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOKST 21–35 UCF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOKST 25–32 UCF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOKST 28–28 UCF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOKST 32–25 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOKST 35–21 UCF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOKST 39–18 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOKST 7–42 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOKST 11–39 UCF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOKST 14–35 UCF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 18–32 UCF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOKST 21–28 UCF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOKST 25–25 UCF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOKST 28–21 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOKST 32–18 UCF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOKST 35–14 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOKST 4–39 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 7–35 UCF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOKST 11–32 UCF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOKST 14–28 UCF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOKST 18–25 UCF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOKST 21–21 UCF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOKST 25–18 UCF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOKST 28–14 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOKST 32–11 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOKST 0–35 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOKST 4–32 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOKST 7–28 UCF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 11–25 UCF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 14–21 UCF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOKST 18–18 UCF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOKST 21–14 UCF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOKST 25–11 UCF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOKST 28–7 UCF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUCF +35UCF +21UCF +7OKST +7OKST +21margin →